Just to stir the pot...

Jamie Hall

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/major-heat-pump-supplier-attacks-plans-to-replace-gas-boilers/ar-AA1eytIz?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e279dfd38fed4b73aa1ab72ecb1eaee0&ei=17

Hot_water_fan

Doesn’t apply to the US much, but maybe it’s a bigger deal in Scotland ? 

Jamie Hall

No? Well, considering that Scotland is warmer than the northern tier of the US, his remarks do have some application perhaps. If he doubts the ability of the equipment to keep you warm in a Scottish winter (heavens, it sometimes gets below freezing!), it's not going to keep you warm in the northern tier of the US, either -- and I'm inclined to think he knows what he's talking about.

In a sense there is a difference, though -- the Scottish (and UK) mandate is a bit more strict: to put it simply, if you don't put in a heat pump you won't be able in sell, mortgage, or insure your house. There is no provision for whether the existing equipment is working or not.

Hot_water_fan

Well I mean boiler wise. Very small sliver of the US market. Anyone that keeps a low end boiler or furnace will be just fine. 

Jamie Hall

Hot_water_fan said:

Well I mean boiler wise. Very small sliver of the US market. Anyone that keeps a low end boiler or furnace will be just fine. 

??

Hot_water_fan

@Jamie Hall if you are nervous about solely relying on heat pumps, then don’t. Problem solved and we can move on. 

leonz

I still shake my head when I see the air to air heat pumps my brothers installed to heat thier apartments and condominiums and all the heat pumps that have been installed in our area.

The first winter after these units were installed we had weeks of below freezing/below zero weather with no snow and the tenants/condo owners were freezing and the tenants/owners had to buy electric heaters to heat thier apartment's and condominiums.

Jamie Hall

Hot_water_fan said:

@Jamie Hall if you are nervous about solely relying on heat pumps, then don’t. Problem solved and we can move on. 

So far, in the US, we're still allowed to do that. It's only a matter of interest, perhaps, that in the UK, including Scotland, you are not. It's an "or else" with the "else" being cold and having the capital in your house frozen and uninsurable. Not everyone wants that.

Hot_water_fan

So far, in the US, we're still allowed to do that. It's only a matter of interest, perhaps, that in the UK, including Scotland, you are not. It's an "or else" with the "else" being cold and having the capital in your house frozen and uninsurable. Not everyone wants that.

No kidding! I don't want that. How many Scottish people are on the wall? Interested to see what they say.

ethicalpaul

Scotland is a great place to mandate heat pumps. As has been mentioned, it's a very temperate climate.

Heat pumps are so efficient that resistive electrical assistive heating when required makes the overall calculation still be a winner.

It is a 100% certainty that over time, heat pumps will perform better in even colder temperatures.

It makes perfect sense for countries or municipalities in these temperate zones to incentivize or even mandate replacing 70-80% efficient heating with 300%+ efficient heating.

ChrisJ

ethicalpaul said:

Scotland is a great place to mandate heat pumps. As has been mentioned, it's a very temperate climate.

Heat pumps are so efficient that resistive electrical assistive heating when required makes the overall calculation still be a winner.

It is a 100% certainty that over time, heat pumps will perform better in even colder temperatures.

It makes perfect sense for countries or municipalities in these temperate zones to incentivize or even mandate replacing 70-80% efficient heating with 300%+ efficient heating.

70-80% efficient heating with 300%+ efficient heating......
Very misleading numbers Paul and you know that.

You're about as misleading as a 6HP shopvac.

GGross

For starters I would imagine that Scotland is mostly hydronics, and like the rest of Europe pretty much all of their gas boilers at this point are 90%+ Generally there are different issues when people are talking heat pumps in Europe, they are almost all air-to-water, and generally their DHW is made by that boiler as well. Most of Europe also has to import their gas, so they really NEED to figure something out soon, no matter how the convo is framed here, over there they don't just have gas supplies that they can depend on, they need to buy most of it from other countries. Beyond that, I don't want to comment on what Scotland does, as I do not live there.

I would say that the guy in the article doesn't really have the credentials to be taken any more seriously than I should be. In fact we have the same credentials, that is that we both sell heat pumps. What I can say is that here in Northern Michigan we do have several new homes that are heating fabulously with only inverter heat pumps, some have central air handlers, some are all mini split wall units. I was pretty skeptical at first myself, but these homes are designed to heat from an inverter heat pump and nothing else down to -13f, I sized the equipment myself. Design day here is only listed at 0f to -4f depending on which county. It is winter for about 6 months or more every year

EDIT: to add one more thing as it may be relevant. I just did the math on one of these jobs, and should that outdoor unit ever see -13f, it will have a COP of 3.314, so I think @ethicalpaul is quite accurate with his 300% estimate which actually surprised me as I thought these dipped below 1 at some point. It is quite a bit better than that at normal ranges. This is air-to-air

Jamie Hall

Allow me to point out that Lord Haughey is not an installer, wholesaler or retailer -- his company makes the things. If anything, he has a strong interest in pushing their installation wherever feasible. He also, however, has an equally strong interest in not installing kit which he knows isn't going to work. Bad for business.

But you are quite right, most heating in Scotland (and the rest of the UK, for that matter) is hot water; forced air is almost unheard of, and air conditioning is also exceedingly rare.

It's not true that there isn't ample gas -- there is. What is true is that political considerations are making it almost impossible to extract it, but that's well beyond what the Wall should worry about.

What I do think is relevant to The Wall, however, is figuring out how to actually retrofit all the existing housing and other building stock to heat pumps when -- not if -- they are mandated in our various areas, and how to do it on a budget which the building owners can manage.

WMno57

GGross said:

EDIT: to add one more thing as it may be relevant. I just did the math on one of these jobs, and should that outdoor unit ever see -13f, it will have a COP of 3.314,

Are you saying that at 45 degrees below the freezing point of water an A2A heat pump is three times as efficient (watt per watt) as resistive heating?
I find that hard to believe, but I'm willing to consider it.

Hot_water_fan

What I do think is relevant to The Wall, however, is figuring out how to actually retrofit all the existing housing and other building stock to heat pumps when -- not if -- they are mandated in our various areas, and how to do it on a budget which the building owners can manage.

This is the doom and gloom framing - we could also look at it this way: while there will be no nationwide permanent bans, but Americans will continue to adopt AC more widely, naturally lending to heat pumps, many of which will be hybrid applications replacing ACs at end of life with heat pumps at roughly the same price. This allows contractors to provide something customers want. 

GGross

Jamie Hall said:

Allow me to point out that Lord Haughey is not an installer, wholesaler or retailer -- his company makes the things. If anything, he has a strong interest in pushing their installation wherever feasible. He also, however, has an equally strong interest in not installing kit which he knows isn't going to work. Bad for business.
.

According to everything online he does not make them, he owns city refrigeration which is a wholesaler of the products. If he owns a manufacturer as well I certainly do not see it on any of his websites which mostly revolve around property management. The article even points out that he is a "Supplier"

GGross

WMno57 said:

GGross said:

EDIT: to add one more thing as it may be relevant. I just did the math on one of these jobs, and should that outdoor unit ever see -13f, it will have a COP of 3.314,

Are you saying that at 45 degrees below the freezing point of water an A2A heat pump is three times as efficient (watt per watt) as resistive heating?
I find that hard to believe, but I'm willing to consider it.

No I am not saying that every A2A heat pump has this efficiency, I am saying that LG RED A2A heat pumps are though. the line up COP at -13f goes from about 3.4-2.8 with the largest size being the least efficient. I honestly did not know this at all until I did the math on them today.

Jamie Hall

This is a bit tiresome, so to add some fun, I will repeat the challenge I made some time ago -- and address it specifically to @ethicalpaul , @Hot_water_fan , and @GGross .

Here it is: provide and install a heat pump heating system of your choice in my building. Said system shall equal or exceed the performance of the existing heating system in all respects. If at the end of ten years, the total cost of said system, including operation and depreciation, is not more than the total cost which would have been incurred with the existing system, we'll buy it from you. Otherwise, you will, at your expense, remove said system completely and restore the building and all systems to the present condition.

Some useful parameters:
minimum ambient air temperature: -15 F
known (measured) total heat load: 270,000 BTUh
maximum peak electrical draw: 22 KW
provision to run during 10 day grid failure to be included

Time to ante up or fold, folks.

Couple of other useful bits...
Current power cost $0.35 per KWh, oil $3.00
Ducyt work is not an option
Ground source is doubtful

ethicalpaul

> This is a bit tiresome

I do apologize for starting this thread

> Here it is: provide and install a heat pump heating system of your choice in my building

Is your building in Scotland? I'm sure you read my post, but seriously, read it again with fresh eyes and I think you'll see it's not that bad.

Jamie Hall

Oh -- left that out. Building is Cedric's home in northwestern Connecticut

Hot_water_fan

@Jamie Hall you’re stuck with black or white thinking here. Here’s how this goes: people replace their AC with heat pumps. That’s about it! Some will keep their furnaces. Others will not. This is the solution for the vast majority of Americans, it’s pretty low stress. 

Every “ 7200 sq. ft. historic house museum with dependencies in New England” can remain on oil, it truly doesn’t matter. 

seized123

Wait, not to cause too much of a digression, but did I understand from the above (that forced air is almost unheard of in Scotland) that there are hydronic heat pumps? If so, as a potential HP consumer, why did’t I know this? Shopping around, I thought there was just ducted  or minisplit blown air. Could we get a heat pump and link it up to our existing baseboard hydronic system? (No hanging units, no air blowing around?)

And if such a thing exists, is there still an AC part, and how does that work?

Hot_water_fan

@seized123 yes there are air to water heat pumps in the US! Most Americans don’t want hydronics, so the market is much smaller, but it can be done. The cooling can be done with ducts or ductless. It’s not usually a simple replacement, but a competent installer can figure it out. 

seized123

What are the advantages/ disadvantages? (If this is too off topic, tell me and I’ll start a new thread.)

Hot_water_fan

I’d start a new thread @seized123. You can also google “idronics journal air to water heat pumps” and find an amazing resource caleffi has published 

seized123

I’ll check out Caleffi before starting a new thread, thanks! Carry on, as they say in Scotland (or maybe they don’t).

GGross

@Jamie Hall

This would be a challenge for sure. Unfortunately without ductwork there is a whole lot guess work involved. I don't personally have access to any sort of heat pump that can make steam (you are heating with steam mostly, correct?) And have no interest whatsoever in converting a customers home from Steam to water when they don't really want to switch. I find selling someone something they do not want to be a bad idea generally. I also would never enter in an agreement that would have a stipulation of me not being paid for 10 years, that money is worth much less 10 years from now than it is today and I would never consider it even hypothetically, even if I "win" in this scenario I lose, as I could have just tucked that money away into a bank account and earned the interest on it. Also keep in mind that I am 100% against gov mandating these changes so if this is some kind of got-ya! it's not needed at all. I am well aware of the downfalls of heat pumps in their current state.

Mad Dog_2

It almost seems like some of you are on the payroll for Heat Pump Companies...Either that or do you enjoy taking away a very big part of OUR livelihoods here?  Propane, Nat Gas, Fuel oil service and installations have fed many of our families here and put our kids through schools.  I, for one, don't appreciate the rah rah-lets Rip it all out-you're JUST going to have to learn Another trade mentality.  Mad Dog 🐕 

Hot_water_fan

@Mad Dog_2 you are incorrect! The simplest solution is oil/gas/propane + heat pump. That keeps the oil/gas/propane furnace and allows companies to provide cooling if they don't already. No mandates, no doom and gloom, just giving customers what they want.

SlamDunk

I think building construction and insulation would need to be considered.  I would use a heat pump in any climate if the house was properly insulated.   

ChrisJ

I just think it's funny Jamie made a thread literally labeled "Just to stir the pot" and then posts a comment starting with "This is a bit tiresome"

Mad Dog_2

Hot water fan: Pardon me...I didn't know you spoke for the wants of the  entire public consumer??  If I recall, there is an entire movement to ban Natural gas, oil, propane, gasoline ⛽...Fossil Fuels and go with Air to Water (Electric) Heat Pumps. Maybe you're not in with them?  In any case, you STILL want to leave MY trade...The Pipe Trades...for Dead.  If you're an HVAC furnace guy, thats swell.  You don't see us trying to ban and shelf YOUR trade & Livelihood...do you?  Mad Dog 🐕 

Hot_water_fan

Hot water fan: Pardon me...I didn't know you spoke for the wants of the entire public consumer?? If I recall, there is an entire movement to ban Natural gas, oil, propane, gasoline ⛽...Fossil Fuels and go with Air to Water (Electric) Heat Pumps. Maybe you're not in with them? In any case, you STILL want to leave MY trade...The Pipe Trades...for Dead. If you're an HVAC furnace guy, thats swell. You don't see us trying to ban and shelf YOUR trade & Livelihood...do you? Mad Dog 🐕

Ha c'mon, Americans want AC. That's what I mean. We can pretend otherwise, but look at the market share. We can keep the pipe trades and I wish you continued success - I have no issue with a boiler paired with a heat pump and I think that's a great combination in my opinion. There certainly is a movement to ban gas. There are lots of movements, doesn't mean they'll be successful. Similarly, a ban doesn't have to happen to crash an industry. The answer remains the same: provide customer solutions not panic.

GGross

Mad Dog_2 said:

It almost seems like some of you are on the payroll for Heat Pump Companies...Either that or do you enjoy taking away a very big part of OUR livelihoods here?  Propane, Nat Gas, Fuel oil service and installations have fed many of our families here and put our kids through schools.  I, for one, don't appreciate the rah rah-lets Rip it all out-you're JUST going to have to learn Another trade mentality.  Mad Dog 🐕 

I hope that you know that's not me, and though I can't speak for everyone else in the thread I do not think it is them either. I am the 3rd generation in my family to make a living selling/installing heating equipment, 99% of that is gas fired. While it is my job to understand the new equipment that is available to me and my customers, and to size it for their applications, any defense I may make of a heat pump is not meant to be an attack on gas/oil fired equipment, and it certainly is not meant to be a defense of any policy etc. I think what you bring up is a very valid, and overlooked concern, that in the midst of all these discussions often the people actually performing the work are left out of it. The people making decisions often just think "they will just learn the new equipment" and it is not so simple. Anyway I hope you know I am not in favor of diminishing your trade in any way shape or form, as it has built my own life as well

Mad Dog_2

NY has  a moratorium on natural gas installations.  This has CRUSHED several Long Island 🏝 Licensed plumbing outfits I know of.. These are 2nd generation legit companies that sole business was oil to gas conversions.  They had to cut long time employees..NOT GOOD....NOT FAIR. 

Minisplits, through the Wall units, free-standing & Window ACs do the trick...Mad Dog 🐕 

ethicalpaul

I wasn't aware that as a country or world, we had to keep certain technologies in use forever in order to preserve jobs. Someone should have told the buggy-whip manufacturers!

Jamie Hall

The horse and carriage was replaced -- eventually -- by the automobile, because the automobile was accessible to more people and was desirable to them. Nobody mandated the replacement from Olympus (or Washington or Albany or Sacramento or wherever). There's a difference.

EBEBRATT-Ed

Heres my take for WIW if anybody care about my take:

Water source heat pumps in any climate:

I would say they have a really good chance of heating a building except if the ground water temp is too low in an extreme location.

Air -Air:

Not going to make it. It will always require supplemental heat of some kind. Their efficiency goes down the colder it gets. Maybe ok to heat an interior space with little heat loss but I am considering only complete buildings here.

Insulation of the building only affects the size of the unit installed and does not determine if an air-air heat pump will heat the building to 70 degrees in a cold climate.

SlamDunk

@Mad Dog_2 , I know half a dozen people who use geothermal for heating and cooling in their homes. Their utility bills are a equivalent to mine and their homes three to five times larger.

My company has built five net zero commercial buildings, is preparing to build a zero carbon manufacturing facility and just over the horizon, a huge zero carbon facility. This stuff works.

I maintain a four boiler, four chiller utility plant, huge CO2generators and it bothers me. All I can do is run as clean and as efficiently as possible. But with these buildings, I have seen the future and I know that I will be obsolete by the time I retire within the next ten years. I am happy about it, excited to be a small part of it and proud of my employer for taking huge risks for the future. It may be too little, too late but rather than protecting the way things have always been done, I am for the way they could be done better. Build on what you know and grow.

ratio

The (my?) complaint isn't that we need to keep certain technologies in place, it's that we're being sold political decisions as if they're technological facts & then any discussion is shut down with non sequiturs & omgscience!1!!

And is there really anyone out there who doesn't think that the only sure winners in this game of must and musn't are crooks & those gaming the system?

ethicalpaul

Jamie Hall said:

The horse and carriage was replaced -- eventually -- by the automobile, because the automobile was accessible to more people and was desirable to them. Nobody mandated the replacement from Olympus (or Washington or Albany or Sacramento or wherever). There's a difference.

Asbestos, lead paint was made to be illegal in many products. Opioids were made illegal in old remedies/snake oil. Was there an effort to preserve those jobs? Or did those companies and employees have to find other ways to make money?