NY State NG Ban. Opinions? And go...

JakeCK

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ny-governor-proposes-first-ever-statewide-ban-on-gas-hookups-in-new-buildings-210023080.html

Jamie Hall

Yeah, I saw that -- commented briefly (for me anyway ) on another thread. You ask for opinions. It will play well in the Hamptons. Some folks in the five boroughs will applaud wildly. Folks north and west of Albany may not be quite so ecstatic, as -- in my humble opinion -- it will have the combined effects of increasing the cost of new construction dramatically, putting tremendous stress on an already shaky grid, and reducing the number of new builds, particularly in the poorer communities of that area.

But... it looks wonderful, it plays well in the media, and who cares about those upstate hillbillies anyway?

JakeCK

It'll be interesting when the grid collapses under the weight of all those heat pumps during a polar vortex. People think it got bad in TX last year? Let's see what it's like at -20.

Steamhead

It'll probably get tied up in court.

delcrossv

So, they close Indian Point and then want everyone to go electric? 🤣

Oooookayyyy. The only thing about this plan that will work is it's an effective virtue signal.

Expect more people to bail out of the state.

HVACNUT

I have a client in East Hampton who's 7 year old ducted ductless system outdoor unit basically exploded. Compressor, fan motor, and both boards. The EEV's tested good across  the coils but couldn't confirm to ground because it was raining. All verified with tech support. Only the compressor is under warranty.

Rather than parts, we're looking at a new outdoor unit. Recover refrigerant, guesstimate line set lengths for 3 indoor units serving the second floor. Outdoor unit is on the 10 ft flat roof of the garage. 

This was on Monday the 3rd. The only heat they have is each other, the dog (Boxer and cute as hell) and 1 (ONE!) cassette serving the open plan first floor. 

Now I don't exactly feel terrible for this client because the financial pain caused would be equivalent to me needing a new toaster. I do feel bad for the client because they're new to the house and possibly didn't fully understand what type of systems  they have. But nobody, no matter who, shouldn't have to deal with that time span. There's a long drawn out process with a lot of "efficient" systems when it comes to repairs. And cost to many (myself included) could put them over the edge as @Jamie Hall alluded to. 

Had another client the same day, this one in East Quogue. No heat. Oil boiler with hydro coils. 
Twinned basement Roth tanks, Tiger Loop Ultra at the boiler to a Riello burner. One tank was empty, the other about half full.
Cleared the blockage with my trusty hand pump, replaced the oil filter, started and tested, checked zones. Back in the van in 45 minutes. Done. 

EBEBRATT-Ed

The lunitics are running the asylum

DanHolohan

I'm thinking about the equipment manufacturers. This is happening in places other than NY. I hope the manufacturers of gas-heating equipment and stoves are able to make the shift. They've done it in the past; and I believe they'll be able to do it again. Look at how quickly we went from old-style circulators to the high-efficiency wonders we have now. Same goes for so many other products that came about by reason of a change in what governments mandate. It eventually turns out to be a good thing.

Bosch is introducing a hydrogen boiler in Europe.

High-temp heat pumps that are able to compete with boilers are now available.

How will all of this affect the trade? I think it depends on the trade's willingness to accept change and get out ahead of it by learning new things.

The world is changing. This is a good time to think.

Jamie Hall

@DanHolohan , I appreciate -- and applaud and even second your comments. Not too many buggy whip manufacturers left!

But there is a key difference, and since it is political -- deeply political -- I'll just point it out and let it go at that. The changes in earlier times, by and large, were driven by innovation and the willingness and desire for the customers for new and often better things. In other words, Joe Sixpack saw a better widget and, if he could afford it, when and got it. This time the difference is being driven by fiat from a governing elite who presume they know best what everyone should have and do, and that they (the elite) have the right to force everyone to do it.

A grave difference -- and our little heating world is only a tiny part of it.

DanHolohan

You're absolutely right, @Jamie Hall but it is what it is, regardless of what's driving it. I think those who accept that and think about what to do to prepare their business for it will survive.

You're also right about the buggy whips. EV anyone?

pecmsg

The electric grid can't handle the load NOW on a Friday afternoon when all the Weekenders come out and turn on their A/C's. I record less then 200 Volts on Fridays after 4 PM. A new feeder was ran to the South fork that helped. The South Fork residents wanted it buried until they were told they will have to pay the extra cost.
There are a few Senior Housing projects that are on Hold due to No New hook ups. We can't get a new pipeline under the Hudsen so no new hookups.

DanHolohan

I believe that when there is a problem, there are always business opportunities for those who can solve those problems. Think. 

cross_skier

I think for the average homeowner longevity of the system will be an issue.  Ten - fifteen year lifespan for heat pumps is unacceptable.

Either a lot of work has to be done to improve durability OR the parts that wear out have to be cheap and easy to replace OR there has be super cheap throw away units like the Midea U shape AC. OR ?

DanHolohan

@cross_skier, I first visited Europe in 1990. I was astonished by what I saw. I asked an engineer from one of the enormous boiler manufacturers how long their mod-cons would last. "About 10 years," he said. I told him that was ridiculous. Our boilers lasted 100 years. He smiled and said, "But Dan, what we'll have in 10 years will be so much better. How long do you keep your cars?"

Guess what.

DanHolohan

Here's an example of the point I'm trying to make. Within every problem, there is a business opportunity:

https://www.hortibiz.com/newsitem/news/chinese-method-for-growing-in-canada-no-heating-costs/

Think.

hot_rod

cross_skier said:

I think for the average homeowner longevity of the system will be an issue.  Ten - fifteen year lifespan for heat pumps is unacceptable.

Either a lot of work has to be done to improve durability OR the parts that wear out have to be cheap and easy to replace OR there has be super cheap throw away units like the Midea U shape AC. OR ?

Is 20 years for a state of the art German boiler an acceptable lifecycle?

 It seems like replacement parts will doom most every electro mechanical device in that 15 year time frame?

pecmsg

DanHolohan said:

Here's an example of the point I'm trying to make. Within every problem, there is a business opportunity:

https://www.hortibiz.com/newsitem/news/chinese-method-for-growing-in-canada-no-heating-costs/

Think.

Agreed but Wainscott is continuing with there Not running the Cables through my back yard!
https://www.eastendbeacon.com/wainscott-sues-over-wind-farm-cable-incorporation-hearing-friday/

cross_skier

Opinion here is that if homeowners will replace HVAC systems like cars they  have to show off.  Air handlers will go from invisible to visible and will be pleasing to see and interact with.  The surviving HVAC companies will need talented designers.

Matt_67

One of our current projects is a small vacation house and the owner just made the decision to remove LP gas from the project. It was to be a forced air furnace with two zones. It is now an inverter air source heat pump with resistance backup. We are in a cold climate - design temp of 3 degrees. What struck me about this house is that it is an old-school design - square with two full stories. The heat loss on this type of house with modern typical construction is low, even with a lot of glass. I think we will adapt to whatever we have to with new construction. Existing building stock will still be a challenge but I'm sure we'll figure it out too.

ethicalpaul

cross_skier said:

I think for the average homeowner longevity of the system will be an issue.  Ten - fifteen year lifespan for heat pumps is unacceptable

that's longer than a lot of Burnhams I've seen here on HH have lasted :shrug:

pecmsg

Matt_67 said:

One of our current projects is a small vacation house and the owner just made the decision to remove LP gas from the project. It was to be a forced air furnace with two zones. It is now an inverter air source heat pump with resistance backup. We are in a cold climate - design temp of 3 degrees. What struck me about this house is that it is an old-school design - square with two full stories. The heat loss on this type of house with modern typical construction is low, even with a lot of glass. I think we will adapt to whatever we have to with new construction. Existing building stock will still be a challenge but I'm sure we'll figure it out too.

So, in this tight home how are you going to deal with the complete air change every 6 - 8 hours winter and summer?

ethicalpaul

I would bet with one or two of these: https://www.supplyhouse.com/Fantech-SH704-SH-Series-Heat-Recovery-Ventilator-w-Fan-Shutdown-Defrost-4-Side-Ports-up-to-1400-Sq-Ft?gclid=Cj0KCQiAieWOBhCYARIsANcOw0yCaFpQC9AT3mZRMltidFk4_OxyNhM16_bI1KC67oTQgJbu3BUWymAaAvJBEALw_wcB

Matt_67

Yes, air to air heat exchanger.

bucksnort

Pay attention to Europe this Winter. Germany shutting down nuke plants. Dutch shutting down gas fields. Relying on wind and solar and the Ruskies holding the NG card. Wood being banned to burn. Right now there is an armada of LNG ships leaving the US to Europe to supply them. My friend has a newer solar setup. Boasts how well it does but by the time it breaks even it's time to replace the panels. Rinse and repeat. My utility built their wind farms to be green hundreds of miles away in MN. Think of the line losses.
My daughter recently switched jobs and is in NG fueling stations which is exploding for fleet operations. Our County is switching over to NG and the landfill is collecting methane and running trucks off it. She is the belief that hydrogen, not tomorrow, will be the next fuel of choice. This EV craze for autos is unobtainable with our current grid. Nobody wants high voltage lines but they want cooling when it hits 90. Maybe a decent gig would be to have a mobile truck with a generator setup to fast charge EV's and solar setups. Kinda like AAA. For me I'm sticking with fossil fuels here in the Midwest. Keep an eye on Europe. Didn't NY also ban wood burners?

cross_skier

Domestic hydrogen fuel cell boiler:

https://www.chapmanplumbers.com/heating-services/fuel-cell-technology-vitovalor/

Hydrogen fuel cell produces no NOx so it is cleaner than Hydrogen combustion.  In theory it is also twice as efficient. 

Sealing hydrogen gas has been a great challenge but improvements may have been made in the last decade.

Zman

If you assume that the power for the state of New York is produced using ~75% natural gas at 43% efficiency and 10% line loss for all electricity transported.

An 80% efficient natural gas boiler requires 125 units in for every 100 units out.
With resistive electric at the percentages above, you would need around 240 units in to get the same 100 out. In the case of resistive electric you would use close to double the fossil fuels when you move to the grid. I have left a few minor variables which should come pretty close to canceling themselves out.

If you could supply the grid energy to run the heat pumps when they all hit the design day at the same time (ask Texas about that one) you would need an average COP of just under 2.0 to make this a break-even deal.

One solution would be to leave the gas lines alone and motivate the industry to develop hybrid solutions for colder climate areas. The gas would take over when the temps drop below the optimum COP number. This solution would require tons of training and an intelligent, well thought out plan. As a result, we will all have to live with knee-jerk politicized plans that waste the energy they claim to save.

The other factor that no one seems to recognize is the fact that as load is added to the grid, the percentage of renewables will likely drop making the numbers worse.

As far as the reliability and life cycle of the equipment goes, that solution would take another monumental change in the public mindset. How many times have you spoken with an owner with a couple of meticulously maintained BWM's and had them look at you like you are trying to rip them off when you suggest that they have their boiler maintained annually?

"ELECTRIFY EVERTHING!"

delcrossv

cross_skier said:

Domestic hydrogen fuel cell boiler:

https://www.chapmanplumbers.com/heating-services/fuel-cell-technology-vitovalor/

Hydrogen fuel cell produces no NOx so it is cleaner than Hydrogen combustion.  In theory it is also twice as efficient. 

Sealing hydrogen gas has been a great challenge but improvements may have been made in the last decade.

And where does all that hydrogen come from?

Split it from water- takes a lot of electricity- where's that juice gonna come from?
Reform it from methane/nat gas. Takes energy to do that and you wind up with carbon. What are you gonna do with that?

Not that I don't like H2 from an environmental standpoint, but everyone needs to remember it's not a primary source of energy like fossil fuels or nuclear.

cross_skier

@ethicalpaul
I think we can agree that the Burnham Independence is a poor product prone to premature failure.

delcrossv

ethicalpaul said:

I would bet with one or two of these: https://www.supplyhouse.com/Fantech-SH704-SH-Series-Heat-Recovery-Ventilator-w-Fan-Shutdown-Defrost-4-Side-Ports-up-to-1400-Sq-Ft?gclid=Cj0KCQiAieWOBhCYARIsANcOw0yCaFpQC9AT3mZRMltidFk4_OxyNhM16_bI1KC67oTQgJbu3BUWymAaAvJBEALw_wcB

Interesting. I wonder how much of the interior heat it actually recovers.

ethicalpaul

I would agree but I don't think Burnham or its reps would (at least not publicly). And even more reliable brands have failed before 15 years in many cases.

Also: cars cost way more than heat pumps and they get replaced way more often than 15 years. No one is mad at Ford when they replace their $50,000 pickup after 10 years, are they? So why would someone be mad at Carrier if they had to replace today's heat pump in 10 years for 1/2 that or less?

Hot_water_fan

If you could supply the grid energy to run the heat pumps when they all hit the design day at the same time (ask Texas about that one) you would need an average COP of just under 2.0 to make this a break-even deal.

I don't think Texas's struggles had much to do with demand nearly as much as frozen up gas plants. Hybrids are a great middle ground - run a fossil backup furnace 1% of the year and there are no peak constraints. I'd estimate well over half of American homes are set up for this already - just need to switch an AC for a heat pump at next AC replacement, which would cost very little. There's not much downside to this.

cross_skier

@delcrossv

In the Veissmann hydrogen comes from natural gas. The unit separates the carbon from the CH4 molecule.   Backup heat comes from a tiny natural gas boiler.

delcrossv

cross_skier said:

@delcrossv

In the Veissmann hydrogen comes from natural gas. The unit separates the carbon from the CH4 molecule.   Backup heat comes from a tiny natural gas boiler

So, where does the carbon go?

delcrossv

Ok, looked it up on the viessman UK site. 
Input gas is H2, so my previous post applies.  The methane is NOT split at the unit.
This just kicks the can upstream. Some supplier is cracking CH4 to make H2.
Would make sense if:
There was infrastructure to pipe H2 around and;
There was a carbon free prime mover to make the H2.

https://www.viessmann.co.uk/products/combined-heat-and-power/fuel-cell/vitovalor

Steamhead

ethicalpaul said:

(snip)
Also: cars cost way more than heat pumps and they get replaced way more often than 15 years. No one is mad at Ford when they replace their $50,000 pickup after 10 years, are they? So why would someone be mad at Carrier if they had to replace today's heat pump in 10 years for 1/2 that or less?

When a vehicle is traded in, that's usually not the end of its life. Someone else, who doesn't absolutely have to buy a brand-new one, will buy it and run it for a while longer. Generally, this doesn't happen with heating equipment.

And vehicles really do last longer these days. I recently sold my '97 Ford Ranger that I'd had for 21 years- to a neighbor. It was in good shape and I hated to see it go, but The Lovely Naoko doesn't want to learn the art of the stick shift.

DanHolohan

Energy Vault is another example of a problem leading to invention and a new business: https://www.energyvault.com/

Robert O'Brien

DanHolohan said:

I believe that when there is a problem, there are always business opportunities for those who can solve those problems. Think. 

The Billionaires solve problems people didn't know they had!

jumper

Utility executives do not like havint to supply capacity for once every so many years load. Not talking about generation but about distribution. May be better to gradually "hydrogenate" NG? Every few years add an additional one percent green hydrogen to natural gas. Hopefully world will have gone all the way before our gas runs out.

ratio

jumper said:

…green hydrogen…

AFAIK the only green H₂ is interstellar H₂. Nearly everything else comes from cracking water, natural gas, etc.

I got a haaaard time believing that adding more overhead will increase efficiency.

MikeAmann

DanHolohan said:

I believe that when there is a problem, there are always business opportunities for those who can solve those problems. Think. 

Correction Dan - for those who can profit from the problem and throw as much $$$ as required to suppress any potential solutions.

DanHolohan

I believe in the power of the boy who began by sweeping out the office, Mike. Think.