What do you think the future of our industry looks like?
Comments
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main reason there are not many young guys going into trades is their fathers who NEVER want their kids to work with their hands and put them in college. I could listen to 1000 trade guys on forums and never hear them say I got my son or sons working with me. for almost 50 years I did mostly framing but also concrete and roofing. up to the 90's almost every trade guy had his son working for him. that is over
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The future is electric
Miss Hall's School service mechanic, greenhouse manager, teacher, dog walker and designated driver
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I'm just a small time real estate investor on the side … I fell into it when in college. The guy who was staying over Christmas found a new girl — left the house and forgot to check the oil tank. Not good with CI radiators in 5 degree weather. We had to move out and the owner took the insurance money and sold two of us the house for a song. That was back in the 80's and was the beginning of about 100 projects.
What has surprised me about the residential HVAC business over the years? It's still a bunch of boxes that often get put together by young guys who never read the directions. Back in the 80's the companies with oil service always seemed to have better/ more trained installers. I'm a bit of a nerd and was always willing to spend a bit more especially for my own and family projects … there is an overall lack of knowledge with the more complex equipment. When you get into "air flow" and "zoning" with conventional ducted equipment … people glaze over. This is a big problem with the new mini split equipment (especially the multi head). I can't believe the industry still uses flare connections on the mini split splits. The rest of the world has moved on and I wonder what is going to happen? I was posted in Germany for a while back in the 90's and the oil burners were light years ahead of what we had here. We own a house in Capetown South Africa and I go to Asia often … they use more flex lines and vs flare on the mini splits. You can also buy them for about $300 in Africa. Mostly all singles there .. they also never evacuate them (that I ever see).
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My 2 cents. Get the people with the good moral character. Train them in the house. Pay top dollars, top benefits, profit sharing etc. So they will be happy and want to stay. Provide technical field support in the real time with the expert in the office. Get rid of bad apples. Fast. There are more things to list.
Gennady Tsakh
Absolute Mechanical Co. Inc.
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Im hoping the throw away society that we are in will not last. I think that throw way will continue for far to long before it changes, if it ever does.
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AGREED
As poster Lance stated above: "That a career path in our trades needs a commitment to place all their training staring no later then 11th grade. Especially when so many have fewer experiences due to lack of shop classes, which must be brought back to our schools starting in 7th grade! Its time to put our tax dollars to invest in shop training to rebuild our work force'
Please tell this to the current administration that just dissolved the Federal Dept. of Education (claiming waste, fraud & abuse) and understand the States cannot make-up the difference in lost revenue.
Regards,
RTW
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Utopian dreams...Decades in the future to meet these ridiculous goals...Mad Dog
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I've seen the pathetic attempt at centralized control of existence hydronic & steam heated buildings…Very frustrating to the occupants. Mad Dog
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You may have been thinking of this solar housing development in north central MA:
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Here is what Apple's Ai says:
AI OverviewLearn moreThe future of HVAC is marked by growing market expansion, increased focus on energy efficiency and sustainability, and the integration of smart technologies and IoT, with the industry expected to continue its trajectory towards seamless efficiency and integration with other smart home and building technologies. Here's a more detailed look at what the future holds for HVAC:Market Growth and Expansion:Overall Growth:The HVAC market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating a significant increase in market value in the coming years.US Market:The United States HVAC market is projected to reach USD 38.45 billion by 2030, rising at a CAGR of 7.87%.Global Market:The global residential HVAC market is projected to experience compound annual compound annual growth rate of 8.1% between 2025-2029.
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Chat gpt seems to agree:
The next 20 years for HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) companies will likely see significant changes driven by technological advancements, environmental concerns, and evolving consumer preferences. Here are some key trends and predictions for the HVAC industry:
1. Increased Focus on Energy Efficiency and Sustainability
- Green Technology: As environmental concerns grow, there will be more emphasis on energy-efficient HVAC systems. This includes the use of renewable energy sources like solar power and geothermal systems, as well as systems that minimize energy consumption, such as heat pumps and variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems.
- Building Codes and Regulations: Governments and municipalities are expected to implement stricter energy efficiency standards, which will drive the adoption of smarter, more efficient HVAC technologies. HVAC companies will need to stay up to date with evolving codes, especially those related to carbon emissions and energy use.
2. Smart HVAC Systems and Automation
- Internet of Things (IoT): The integration of IoT technology will make HVAC systems smarter, allowing for remote monitoring, diagnostics, and control. Homeowners and businesses will increasingly demand systems that can be managed through apps and voice-controlled assistants.
- AI and Predictive Maintenance: Artificial intelligence (AI) will allow HVAC systems to "learn" from user behavior and environmental data, adjusting settings for maximum comfort and efficiency. Predictive maintenance technologies will enable HVAC companies to anticipate issues before they arise, minimizing downtime and reducing repair costs.
3. Decarbonization and Electrification
- Electrification of HVAC Systems: The transition to electric heating and cooling systems, especially heat pumps, will gain momentum. These systems are more efficient and can be powered by renewable energy, helping to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and lower carbon emissions.
- Decarbonizing Refrigerants: As refrigerants with high global warming potential (GWP) are phased out, HVAC companies will increasingly adopt low-GWP refrigerants, such as HFOs (hydrofluoroolefins) and natural refrigerants like CO2, which are better for the environment.
4. Integration with Building Management Systems (BMS)
- Smart Buildings: More commercial and residential buildings will integrate HVAC systems with broader building management systems (BMS). This means HVAC systems will work alongside lighting, security, and other systems to create a more efficient and responsive building environment.
- Data-Driven Decisions: The use of big data will allow companies to optimize system performance by analyzing patterns in energy use, temperature, and occupancy. HVAC systems will become an integral part of the data flow within smart cities and intelligent buildings.
5. Workforce Evolution and Training
- Skilled Labor Shortage: As the HVAC industry adapts to new technologies, the demand for skilled workers will increase. Training programs will need to evolve to equip technicians with the skills required to work with advanced systems and software. Expect more emphasis on certifications related to smart technologies and green building practices.
- Remote Diagnostics and Virtual Assistance: Remote diagnostics and virtual support will become more common, reducing the need for on-site visits and allowing HVAC technicians to troubleshoot problems from a distance. This will help improve service speed and reduce operational costs.
6. Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
- Increased Demand for HVAC: As climate change leads to more extreme temperatures, HVAC companies will see a surge in demand for both heating and cooling systems. This includes better insulation and advanced HVAC systems designed to handle more extreme conditions.
- Disaster Recovery and Resilience: HVAC companies will be called upon to design and implement systems that are more resilient to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and heatwaves. Systems will need to be more adaptable and capable of maintaining function in challenging conditions.
7. Consumer Expectations and Health Concerns
- Indoor Air Quality (IAQ): Consumers will place a higher priority on air quality, pushing HVAC companies to integrate air filtration and purification systems. This could include the use of HEPA filters, UV-C lights, and other technologies that help reduce allergens, pollutants, and pathogens in the air.
- Wellness-Focused HVAC: With an increased awareness of health and wellness, there may be a demand for HVAC systems that not only control temperature but also regulate humidity and air purity to create healthier indoor environments, especially in homes and offices.
8. Expansion into New Markets
- Globalization: As demand for energy-efficient and smart HVAC solutions grows in emerging markets, HVAC companies will have opportunities to expand globally, especially in regions with expanding middle classes or rapid urbanization.
- Residential vs. Commercial Shifts: There may be a shift in demand patterns between residential and commercial sectors, as businesses focus on sustainability and energy efficiency, and homes seek more advanced, automated systems.
9. Adoption of New Business Models
- Subscription-Based Services: HVAC companies may increasingly adopt subscription-based models, where customers pay for regular maintenance, system updates, and monitoring. This could create steady revenue streams and foster stronger customer relationships.
- Green Certifications and Incentives: As green building certifications and incentives (like tax rebates) become more widespread, HVAC companies may offer specialized services or products to help customers meet sustainability targets.
10. Robotics and Automation in HVAC
- Advanced Installation Techniques: Robotics and drones may be used in some installations, particularly in complex or dangerous environments (e.g., skyscrapers or large industrial facilities). This could help reduce labor costs and improve efficiency.
- Automation in Manufacturing: The manufacturing of HVAC systems will likely become more automated, improving production speeds and reducing costs.
Conclusion
The HVAC industry is poised to undergo significant changes in the next two decades. From integrating smart technologies and improving energy efficiency to responding to new consumer demands for health and sustainability, HVAC companies that adapt to these trends will be well-positioned for success. The combination of technological innovation, regulatory changes, and evolving consumer expectations will drive the future of HVAC.
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OPINION:
My observation is Nothing in the " AI Overview" post above addresses training issues, or lack thereof, to meet HVAC future demands. I still think previous poster "Lance" at least came up with a workable solution to shoot for. To be honest, the "AI Overview" sounds like it came mostly from sponsored sources, but nothing against the poster who sourced it.
Im sure there is a wealth of interest in the trades of students in Junior High and High School that's no longer part of the school's curriculum - thus, "Lance" got it right. I would add, those tradesmen I know successful today had backgrounds, opportunities and education in their respective trade growing up
Put in a call to your Representative to Get Back the Federal Dept. of Education with an eye towards funding the trades education!!!
All the Best,
RTW
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All of the skills & trades based education I had starting in grade 7 occurred well before the department of education was created.
Not saying the department is bad or good; just that states need to show leadership in this area. STEM is great but STEM needs the trades.3 -
@PC7060 ……And, the trades need to pay well. Better than they pay now. That is the botom line, isn't it? The trades are needed but It should not be strange for a tradesperson to live next to a small business owner, scientist or lawyer. But it is , because I know!
An important lesson given to me by an elder mechanic when airline workers were striking, I said( this was over 35 years ago) "I love this work so much, I wouldn't risk losing it by going on strike". Bob said " you cannot provide for a family on passion alone. You will starve to death. If you don't risk it you will always be paid poorly".
This trade, the trade that heatinghelp.com promotes, will need people educated in STEM. I see it in my place of employment, as I already mentioned, but it is even more far reaching- a simple packaging line that puts pills in a bottle requires a laptop and skills in coding to troubleshoot. I don't have the skills to turn on lights in a conference room- all radio controlled via a computer that can be remote accessed. At this point, will we be able to call future workers trades people?
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It has been my experience that many techs do not have the fundamentals of servcing equipment as a skill. They are always looking for the quick and easy way out. I have been teaching natural gas and propane systems for over 50 years (58 years to be exact) and in recent years with all the new equipment techs seem to not have a working knowledge of the fundamentals.
They are trying to understand all the new concepts but the lack of the fundamentals catches them short.
My manuals which by the way are still selling after all these years prepare techs for being able to understand the complex new systems because they have experienced in a learning environment the older stuff. Then they are ready to conquer the new equipment which really once you go through the well written manuals most of the manufacturers put out today are not that complicated. It is the lack of basics that hurts the modern tech. They then are not patient enough to take the time to conquer the fundamentals and it comes back to haunt them on job after job.
I still continue to thank the US Navy for my educatiopn in electronics and also before that basic electricity. I feel sorry for folks who seek training and they lack the fundamentals. It is very difficult to handle electronics with out some education in same.
I see the future being that any problems with residentail equipment of any kind it will be removed and a new unit installed. The unit removed may perhaps be rebuilt or thrown away. Commercial equipment is another story all together.
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Easy access AI is only to make it worse. Information at your fingertips, but how do you know it’s right?
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In our business we have “Engineering Technician” positions. Stable and well paid, debugging is a required skill. Most are in their 50’s and older.
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TO quote PC7060 under SlamDunk above: " I agree. When I was young, my parents REFUSED to let me have a calculator until I was a senior in HS. "You must know how to do the math! What will happen if you rely on a calculatorand the battery dies?" Same argument, different generation."
RESPONSE in kind:
I can appreciate knowing the long hand of mathematics! As a beginning sailor, I learned "dead Reckoning" and used parallel bars with chart to determine a course Before GPS existed. The beauty of that knowledge meant if electronics failed, I had a back up, just sayin. The acronym used as part of the process was : TVMDC to get the heading.
Only a seasoned sailor will know what that acronym means - haha
Regards,
RTW
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One minor rambling… sort of related to one of @EBEBRATT-Ed 's comments, and the comment about taking the burner back to a specialty shop and having the repalcement plug and play.
I had occasion the other day to check on the flat rate for replacing a headlight bulb in a well known mid-size SUV. A very popular car. Lots of them out there.
To replace a headlight bulb — one bulb, mind you — the flat rate is $500.00 at the present time. It's all plug and play, except one unit which gets disturbed which has to be recalibrated. Which takes a specialty shop with special equipment.
Br. Jamie, osb
Building superintendent/caretaker, 7200 sq. ft. historic house museum with dependencies in New England0 -
I ve kinda waited out a bit for posting ,but from my point of view there really are not enough younglings going into any blue collar type of work . I kinda think that when it comes to making money like everyone they want the largest return for the smallest effort in most cases. And the work we do is not the most rewarding over a few decades your bonuses are bad back ,knees shoulders and rotator cup aside from arthritis sounds like a good deal . I think most kids are not willing to put in the grunt work and think that doing some thing once correctly and your a pro and should be intitle one to a raise . lol
i hardly doubt any kid would walk my shoes in construction to get where i am and that aint saying much .
From starting out doing basement water proofing installing french drains in existing homes to digging under grounds and doing sewer and water main connection to doing finish work and hot water boiler and all the waste and vent ,b vent chimney installs and all plumbing junk to switching gears and doing hvac for about 35 year from residential to commercial ac splits to package rooftops ,multizone rooftops to process cooling for blow injection plants water towers,refregeration from freezers to blast freezer and in between all that work on single and old two pipe system and a few years of oil burner install and service . Oh yeah go get a chiller lic w toxic ref cert at over 50 . A request of my dad so i did it
i highly doubt that kids today would stick w anything that long while continue to learn more and more aspects of the trade . While learning all this stuff w fairly no monetary increase for long lengths of time ( raises once a year ) I think most of the truly smart one will be off to college and not dirtying there hands .
As time goes on finding the diamonds in the rough w 1/2 a brain that fit some basic requirements will be like hitting the lottery .Being the one big issue i hear is reliability and that lack of dong a couple of basic simple things like showing up to work on time and every day and doing that every day no excuses . Stay off your cell phone ,work like theres a flame on your **** instead of dragging your feet hoping that some else will pick up or carry material or garbage . Seems like the only time the flame is on is when its punch out time then theres a fire under there ****. I know there are a few kids out there like me when i was younger but i have to say i don't think there that stupid any more and realize that it s not glamorous as one may think but you may meet elvis as you are hallucinating in a 130 degree attic while the ho ask how much longer lol . That's glamorous for sure . i guess this is why there are so many non american doing the work but w our new immigration program there's no wonder there is a short coming of workers in the new construction fields and plenty of jobs available but no taker or at least not youngins .
Just my wierdo view standing w one foot on a banana peel and the other in a hole and ready to go at any point w zero resistance
peace and good luck clammy
R.A. Calmbacher L.L.C. HVAC
NJ Master HVAC Lic.
Mahwah, NJ
Specializing in steam and hydronic heating
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Hi, It's common knowledge that the trades don't pay very well, especially for new employees. A path towards getting new blood into the trades would be to teach financial skills along with the tech skills. Although financial literacy is being taught now in schools, getting this sort of education along with business skills and hopefully mentoring all together could make the trades a more attractive choice.
Often, people are scared of self-employment. There are lots of unknowns, but a decent business plan and some support along the way can make is less scary. Right now, being in the trades is one of those opportunities everybody's running away from, but might be worth running towards it, if properly prepared.
Finally, it's good to know a little bit of everything, but gooder to focus in one area. I read @clammy 's post and remember thinking years ago, I'm wearing my body out. What work can I do that isn't so damaging? Water heaters usually live in okay places, so why not work on those? That was part of my deciding to focus on hot water, and it's kept me busy for over 45 years. I think there are ways of making the trades more attractive. We know college isn't for everybody. There are lots of visual and tactile learners out there. What tools do we have to make trades work attractive to them?
Yours, Larry
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I'm am tutoring many Latino & Chinese students as they are the real go-getters in Construction these days. They got the eye of the tiger...Mad Dog
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