What do you think the future of our industry looks like?
A friend asked me the other day where our industry is heading and I had never really thought about it. Later that day, I heard some expert on a podcast say that within 5 - 6 years, only half the technicians that are working now will be working. There is already a shortage.So I thought about the future. Looking into my crystal ball, I think the industry will be plug and play. When you call a technician for service, they will come to your house, slide out the inner components and replace it with a new one. The casing will remain. The tech would be there about a hour The old unit could be take to the shop where they can be repaired. I would love to know your thoughts.
Boiler Lessons
Comments
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Burning oil for heat will seem as archaic to future generations as burning whale oil for light seems to ours.
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For more than 100 years people have been talking about applying mass production techniques to residential housing. There have been some attempts, but for the most part every house is a one-off that is hand built, and crucially for the HVAC, designed and engineered. I could see modular design of the HVAC being part of a broader push to change the way houses are built.
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The near future in the HVAC world is going to be problematic. Equipment is rapidly becoming more and more complicated, while at the same time training that is being provided by either the supplier or the manufacturer is getting less and less frequent. To top that off, the training that is offered is often not much more than a glorified sales presentation. I always hear about equipment being throw away, but with the amount of electronics or highly specialized parts that are often involved, things are getting very expensive and quickly. Throwing a piece of equipment out every couple years when techs can't or wont fix it is going to be prohibitively expensive for most people.
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One thing I am confident about the future of HVAC is that the next generation will complain that generation coming after them is lazy and won't be able to fill the roles, they will say about the equipment they have in the future "they don't make it like they used to" referencing equipment from today, and the industry will continue on heating and cooling the many homes and buildings around the world despite those concerns. In other words the equipment will look different, but the industry from the ground level will appear and act very much the same
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What I've seen is the top technicians go into commercial/industrial, leaving residential service to the "boiler salesmen".
Trying to squeeze the best out of a Weil-McLain JB-5 running a 1912 1 pipe system.0 -
I don't think the problem is laziness. The problems are that the equipment is getting ever-more complicated, there aren't enough young people going into the trades, and the gray-haired guys who we need to train the young people are retiring or already gone.
So it's a supply-demand problem where there is going to be a large under-supply of well-trained techs who can understand and fix this complicated stuff.
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I don't believe the time frame will be as little as 5 to 6 years. Maybe within twenty years will there be a more saturated beginnings of plug and play.
The advent of plug and play will also usher in the less capable. Meaning there will be little to no trouble shooting skills or common sense that will be applied when there will certainly be a need for it. In the future, all one would need to do is look at a video or some other means of direction and believe that they have solved a problem, (Sounds desperately familiar already.)
This type of issue will show itself much more in my life time and most likely will be some sort of common practice in the decades to come.
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It's pretty simple. We're all going to have to stay healthy for a long time. In a while you'll see us 90 year olds clambering around in attics and squeezing through tight crawl spaces, making sure things still work.
Just came to me that if I put a white collar on my blue work shirt, I could claim to be doing white collar work 😇 Maybe that would make it easier to get new blood into the field.
Yours, Larry
ps. As long as homes are stick built, every HVAC job will be custom. If we go to manufactured homes, the new stuff could be more plug and play. I'll add that when technicians are so rare that they can charge as much as lawyers, more will be wanting to learn our trades.
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Agree, this has been going on for the 40 plus years I have been in the trades.
You'll find this exact conversation at the mechanics, electrician, any trade chatroom.
Bob "hot rod" Rohr
trainer for Caleffi NA
Living the hydronic dream2 -
I Like the White Collar comment…Which is probably why the Big Ben Franklin supply white shirts to the Technicians.. Make them feel Valued and Don't eat the Young.
On a serperate note:Years ago when i was working for a company called Dillon Plumbing and Heating(DPH) a Attorney complaint about the price of the services rendered and explained that he does not change these kind of rates per hour..The owner of DPH told the Attorney that he should have become a Plumber instead.
Did not go over to well but he ended up paying the Bill. 😑
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The only real question is how much worse is it going to get before it gets better.
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I read an article about doing an oil burner tune up on a European boiler consisted of quick connect oil lines and the 2 bolts that hold the Riello oil burner on the flange with a 3 wire plug for electrical connection. The burner gets swapped out in about 3 minutes, the flue passages are inspected and vacuum cleaned (rarely needed) if there is a large enough build up. The whole process takes about 20 minutes including the combustion testing and paperwork (that is paperless by the way).
The oil burners are cleaned and tuned up at the shop with the specifications on file in the customers records. there is rarely any soot involved in these tune ups. So the technician with the brains and the skills are at the shop doing all the detailed work. anyone can look at the chamber for soot an vacuum it out if needed. The replacement burner is preset and adjusted for the best operating parameters for the year. You need less top notch technicians with this program and you can offer service to more customers this way.
Edward Young Retired
After you make that expensive repair and you still have the same problem, What will you check next?
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I think it's very slowly catching on with the Suburban kids AND the inner city kids that skilled trades are great option. Mad Dog
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Compare the cars we drive now to what we drove 50 years ago. The mechanics 50 years ago couldn't even begin to work on todays cars….maybe they could change the tires.
I can relate to this as can many others
I started when everything was relays no microprocessors or circuit boards.
I was 40 years old before I turned on a computer. I moved back and forth between office work (looking at jobs and estimating) and doing some service , install and pipefitting along with running jobs
At the beginning the thought of a microprocessor or circuit board was awful.
But, you learn as you go and absorb it all by osmosis.
Many times I found I could fix modern equipment that the younger guys didn't have a clue. You break the circuit board down into checking the inputs and outputs and usually find the problem.
I just am not in favor of the "new way" which seems to be the "parts cannon" or "just replace the equipment"
I still like to fix thing that's where the satisfaction comes from.
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IInteresting question that I think has helped me in deciding on the type of NG boiler I plan to get. When I hear that the # of techs will possibly decrease and the newer boilers,mod con, are getting more complicated. My decision to go CI NG boiler is making me feel more comfortable.
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It isn't just trades. i needed an accountant and had a lot of trouble finding one and they are all constantly overworked. It is treating services and service workers like they are an expense to be reduced to as little as possible. Where i work i see everything support related treated as we want to spend as little up front with no thought about how much more that will cost to support and lost work from the people trying to use that service. They are never looking for the best solution, they are always looking for the cheapest solution. Even if you get paid reasonably well constantly implementing the compromise solution is very much not satisfying.
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All this talk about new-fangled equipment vs old. The computers do a lot of algorithims for efficiency and safety but combustion can never change from the God-designed physics. You need a proper mix of fuel and air with an ignition source to light it. Even if 10 computer boards are running the thing those basics can't change. So some things don't and won't really change much. Except now the push is for "wonderful" heat pumps with no fire. Since I am north of the mason-dixon line, Give me a fire!
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Look...one way or another, we all have heat, fresh water & Sanitary waste disposal in our homes. Eventually, you find the right guy to fix everything. We are just going through a rough patch. Mad Dog
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there are a lot of people just living with terrible systems that were installed when the house or commercial building was built.
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We're moving away from private home ownership, at least in the metropolitan areas and away from central heating plants.
In many cities and suburbs, oil and gas are being banned. With the obscene price of electric generation, I see more individual room by room Chinese heat pumps and resistance heaters subsidized by government - according to income - as is done in NYC public and subsidized housing projects and soon in private homes by NY State.
More plastic and sheet metal junk replaced every six years and thrown in landfills. Just another increased expense for the homeowner.
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At least in my area, I haven’t found many people that want to learn what we do. Part of it is that many don’t like to get dirty. I’m filthy when I get home.
And I don’t see my suppliers offering classes like they used to. I guess it’s all online now.
And what happens when the economy goes south; the next recession? When there are less jobs, people still need their boilers fixed when they run out of hot water or their house is cold. People will come back to the trades. It’s been a fallback forever.8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour
Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab0 -
Plumbers protect the health of the nation, that is a forever occupation
Bob "hot rod" Rohr
trainer for Caleffi NA
Living the hydronic dream
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Electric cars electric HPs server farms, bitcoin harvesting centers around here are all coal powered. Tons of coal powered Teslas running around here.
In fact another new coal plant is being proposed south of me in a small farming community
However big push back from the all the locals
Burning coal to cool our buildings, power the “green” cars, what a country😂
Bob "hot rod" Rohr
trainer for Caleffi NA
Living the hydronic dream0 -
We're
moving awaybeing moved away from private home ownership, at least in the metropolitan areas and away from central heating plants.FIFY.
There's growing resistance to the whole "you'll own nothing and be happy " edict.
Trying to squeeze the best out of a Weil-McLain JB-5 running a 1912 1 pipe system.1 -
I so very much agree. Yet so many take it for granted.
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From my perspective it's upper management that's the problem. When smaller companies try to transition from a smaller company to a larger company they forget about the technician. All they look at are the numbers and they reduce the technician from a real person to a number. Who wants to be treated like a number. That's all the larger companies do is talk about numbers and how much revenue they have. When you minimize the technician you minimize his ability to not only help the company but also whether he wants to stay in this field. eventually the technician bad mouths the field to the younger generation and then the younger generation doesn't want to do what we do.
Management forgets it's the relationship between the technicians and the customers that keeps the company strong. The ability of a technician to not only fix the issue at hand but to develop a trust with the customer that will keep them calling. Management thinks that calling technicians into there office with HR and whoever else to try and prove a point is very counter productive when a simple phone call to the offending technician would have been more productive. I honestly can't tell you how many technicians that i really respected left the field but i see it month after month. they are tired of being minimized by corporate CEO's who thinks it's management that has created the company.
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The biggest trend in the HVAC business right now is private equity firms buying up family-owned firms. Some people argue that many of these firms weren't very professionally managed, and their may be some truth to that. But private equity ownership doesn't tend to be good for employees or customers, or anyone other than the investors.
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Private equity is also very poor management.
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People don't quit their companies, they quit their bosses. Doesn't matter the size, type, profitability, ownership of the company
Bob "hot rod" Rohr
trainer for Caleffi NA
Living the hydronic dream2 -
My neighbor owns his own plumbing company. His truck has a bumper sticker that says " If it weren't for plumbers, you'd have nowhere to go".
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I can tell you what the future will look like. I am witnessing it. Near net zero homes. Even carbon zero homes and companies. Super insulated buildings, & where possible, solar power and geothermal hvac...Even heatpumps where you wouldnt think they would work. All heavily computerized. Biofuels/Biogas where possible: See Novozymes. Overture, the maker of future supersonic jet BOOM! Using renewable biofuel. So, if I were starting out, in an area of moderate wealth, I would get into HVAC programming and renewable energy. It is early stages but the technology works.
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Hi, I'd encourage tradespeople to learn the business side of things right along with the trade part. That would give them the option of being self-employed, which is a much more stable place to be. Until recently, schools didn't teach financial literacy, but it's essential if you want to be in control of your money. The sole owner who knows his or her costs is going to be hard to compete against if you're a top-heavy, or purely profit-driven organization. Specialization is a plus also. These things can make the trades more attractive than just a dirty job that's stressful and doesn't pay all that well.
Yours, Larry
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This is already happening. With the newest building codes an all-electric net zero house is very attainable in most of the country. I wish I could find the link, but there was recently a story about a net zero affordable housing development in Massachusetts — which isn't a mild climate. A developer is building a 4500-unit net zero community in Fort Collins, CO — which isn't mild either:
Where I am, Washington, DC, all new construction has to be "net-zero ready" by 2026. And “on-site fuel combustion” for heating and water heating in new buildings will be banned.
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Courts have overturned several of these fuel bans.
All Steamed Up, Inc.
Towson, MD, USA
Steam, Vapor & Hot-Water Heating Specialists
Oil & Gas Burner Service
Consulting2 -
It would be interesting to check in on these jobs after a couple winters of run time.
-30C design, 41C SWT (105F)
PV, wind, and diesel supply power to the area.
There is also an oil fired back up boiler.
Bob "hot rod" Rohr
trainer for Caleffi NA
Living the hydronic dream0 -
Wow lots of crystal balls here. I also wonder if locally owned hvac companies will be a thing of the past, replaced by large corporations headquartered in some office building
Ray Wohlfarth
Boiler Lessons0 -
I manage the maintenance of two net zero buildings (kind of a boring job) with two more coming online within the next five years. They are six and two years old and when we have local power outages, these buildings don't even flicker. They switch to battery.
A developer, nearby, built a row of netzero homes (about six on a city street). They all sold before they were built for a cool $1.95 million each. Like I said, still early stages but the guys making the most money are the programmers that integrate these systems. It is pretty exciting to see what is coming down the pike. There is nary a homeowner or building owner that doesn't look for ways to reduce energy costs.
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