Well? Will the new tax overhaul

SlamDunk

...help you?

Jamie Hall

Probably not -- but Connecticut is an insanely high tax (both local and state) state, so I'm not surprised. I still like it, even so, on principle.

EBEBRATT-Ed

I am a Trumper so anything he does is ok with me. Most of my relatives won't talk to me especially about politics. That's ok, I'll find somewhere to hang out for Christmass

mikeg2015

I think it's risky. The economy is doing fairly well. Fed is raising rates to prevent inflation. tax break to corporation won't raise salaries. That's not how business works. Consumer spending drives demand. Increase demand means expansion of production which will increase headcounts and payroll.

The worry for me, is we are not growing our population as fast and we'll soon have even more baby boomers retiring and living longer which will put a downward pressure on GDP. the tax plan relies on GDP growing.

I think we are setting ourselves up for a very nasty recession, possibly a mild depression as congress won't have the deep pockets to bail us out after already cutting taxes.

I hope I'm wrong. But I feel like all we're doing is kicking the can down the road. My salary has been relatively flat as an maintenance manager/supervisor for 15 years now. Yet I'm expected to work more hours and produce more. The upper 1% has seen their incomes more than double in that time. Their work load hasn't really changed. They just take bigger and bigger gambles with other peoples money.

FranklinD

After reading as much about it as I can, I believe it will have zero effect on my small business. At least I’m hoping for zero, and not an overall negative, but I’m not optimistic. It’s pretty clear to me who this helps.

As for the 5% savings I’m “projected” to see on income tax from my regular employment, it’s already more than consumed by increased local property taxes and fees due to cuts in my state’s education system. We ended up having a referendum to help keep the local technical college open (which I wholeheartedly supported), but it’s just an example of tax savings being used to pay for things that taxes used to pay for...they’re just cutting out the middle man - while lying to you about it.

All in all, seems like they’re just pushing the burden on down the road. So much for “fiscal responsibility”.

Harvey Ramer

We will all find out soon enough how it works.

I personally am a big fan of bringing manufacturing back to the states, which is one of the goals.

When it comes to politics, you will see whatever you look for. Keep an open mind.

SlamDunk

I don't think it will do much for me personally either. I don't want to make light of $1000.00 but to me, that's not worth the time spent on the overhaul. Nor is it worth 1.5 T more debt for future generations.

I don't mind the corporate tax being lowered. I have a 401k so that will help my portfolio.

I read an interesting piece in Bloomberg magazine. It said two things: First, trickle down economics is not new and wasn't created during the Reagan era. In the 1800s, it was called "horse and sparrow" economics- If you feed a horse enough oats, some oats will pass thru the horse onto the road for the sparrows to feed. Second, if government really wanted to help the middle class, simply reduce payroll tax by 5%. Forget about credits, married, single, etc.

NY_Rob

Our account came to see us at work yesterday... he's okay (so far) with what it will do to our small business, but he was very upset regarding the effects it will reap on us as individuals.

We have relatives paying $18K property taxes, and their neighbors paying $22K property taxes. The same people also pay NY State income taxes. Combined, that's a huge deduction to lose.

SlamDunk

NY_Rob said:

We have relatives paying $18K property taxes, and their neighbors paying $22K property taxes. The same people also pay NY State income taxes. Combined, that's a huge deduction to lose.

I understand and feel your pain. I have family in the NYC as well but one argument I have heard is, why should poor communities subsidize wealthier communities? Deductions are subsidies.

STEVEusaPA

Its a 'win the battle, lose the war' scenario. Everyone will feel good now, but it won't be good in the future.

KC_Jones

NY_Rob said:

Our account came to see us at work yesterday... he's okay (so far) with what it will do to our small business, but he was very upset regarding the effects it will reap on us as individuals.

We have relatives paying $18K property taxes, and their neighbors paying $22K property taxes. The same people also pay NY State income taxes. Combined, that's a huge deduction to lose.

I am of the unpopular opinion the problem in that scenario isn't the loss of deduction, it's the outrageous taxes. Actually outrageous isn't a strong enough word, as I can't think of one strong enough. I pay $3200.00 per year, I can't conceive of taxes that high. I don't pay that much in taxes if you add up all the taxes I pay to everyone....including sales tax.

As a family I am a bit unsure how this will work out for us. Ever since I refinanced my house to a 15 year mortgage I haven't been able to itemize (6 tax years) as I don't have enough to beat the standard deduction. So that goes up, which is good, but I am losing the deduction for my kids and wife (from what I am reading). I am curious to see how it flushes out in my scenario. I believe I read that the child tax credit is going up, but I have a feeling even that won't be simple.

hot_rod

Harvey Ramer said:

We will all find out soon enough how it works.

I personally am a big fan of bringing manufacturing back to the states, which is one of the goals.

When it comes to politics, you will see whatever you look for. Keep an open mind.

Exactly, time will tell.

What jobs do you see coming back and who will fill them? There is currently a labor shortage, series shortage in every trade. The boomers will not be filling them, the millennial won't, can't work for those wages. That is why many manufacturing jobs left, labor labor cost, higher corporate profits.

Did any loop holes get closed, that is what forces the wealthy to put money off shore,they can! Those should have been closed as part of this bill.

With any political party reality rarely matches the promises.

Fix congress first. Buffet got it right.

Harvey Ramer

> @hot rod said:
> We will all find out soon enough how it works.
>
> I personally am a big fan of bringing manufacturing back to the states, which is one of the goals.
>
> When it comes to politics, you will see whatever you look for. Keep an open mind.
>
> Exactly, time will tell.
>
> What jobs do you see coming back and who will fill them? There is currently a labor shortage, series shortage in every trade. The boomers will not be filling them, the millennial won't, can't work for those wages. That is why many manufacturing jobs left, labor labor cost, higher corporate profits.
>
> Did any loop holes get closed, that is what forces the wealthy to put money off shore,they can! Those should have been closed as part of this bill.
>
> With any political party reality rarely matches the promises.
>
> Fix congress first. Buffet got it right.

I absolutely agree with everything in that buffet document you posted. It would take a lot of coordination and effort on all of our parts to put it into effect.

As far as manufacturing, I could have termed it better. Industrial growth and activity, of which manufacturing plays a huge part, is what I would like to see more of.

As far as the millennial problem, that could be solved with economics. If you are healthy and able, you earn your keep or you go hungry. They will work. This could be, in large part, achieved simply by giving the case workers in the welfare offices more latitude in determining who is eligible.

Sal Santamaura

This category is "The Politics of Heating." I assume the OP was asking how heating contractors' businesses would be affected. I'm not a heating contractor, so will only gently dip a toe into the conversation.

My prediction is that, other than a few initial PR actions by large corporations actually still able to feel guilt (unlike politicians who passed the law), job expansion, return of work previously moved off shore and wage growth will not happen. Corporate profits and executive compensation will soar.

I'm now officially done making the case against what happened yesterday. I'll just sit back and take the thousands of dollars in reduced federal tax liability that your children and grandchildren are gifting retired, childless me. Please let them I know I appreciate their future sacrifices, including not only the debt burden they'll bear, but also their degraded (if not eliminated) Medicare and Social Security benefits.

Merry Christmas.

hot_rod

As far as the millennial problem, that could be solved with economics. If you are healthy and able, you earn your keep or you go hungry. They will work. This could be, in large part, achieved simply by giving the case workers in the welfare offices more latitude in determining who is eligible.

The it becomes the chicken or the egg.

Did the majority of trade techs and opportunities to learn a trade and become a blue collar trades person disappear due to lack of interest? Budget cuts? Want for white collar jobs?
Pay scale to low in the trades? Blue collar stigma?

If middle class income is defined as 50- 140K, how many in the trades here make 100K or more? What is a fair wage for an HVAC worker? Owner?

Without a path to learn a trade or train for Industrial jobs, and see a living wage it becomes tough to convince young folks to consider that possibility.

I will say that I am seeing a renewed interest in trade techs in some areas. NAIT in Canada has always impressed me. With low oil prices that are not placing as many graduates as years before, they always forge ahead.

Harvey Ramer

I believe one of the biggest millennial problems is laziness. I hate to say it, but that has been my experience. But then again, I have been working fulltime since the age of 14 and had daily farm chores before that, so some might view me as a workaholic.

As far as how the tax plan will affect me directly, first there's the individual tax break. Second, I'm planning on buying some realstate and putting up a big shop, plus a new work truck in the near future. Under the new plan I can write those items off directly rather than depreciate. The extra money will allow me to pay them off much faster and save thousands of dollars in interest.

With the corporate tax rate deduction and the already increased GDP, I am looking forward to robust returns on my IRA, hopefully anyway.

hmlj

SlamDunk said:

In the 1800s, it was called "horse and sparrow" economics- If you feed a horse enough oats, some oats will pass thru the horse onto the road for the sparrows to feed.

Seems like an inefficient way to get oats to sparrows, and they still have to go through you-know-what to get them!

Probably why it's been rebranded "supply-side economics."

Paul48

Most manufacturing jobs are not highly skilled. We have Henry Ford to thank for that. No one has to be able to build the whole car. Nothing has changed as far as the need for 2 incomes in a family, and a couple folks hustling $15/hr jobs can survive. For those people, that's the "starting line" not the "finish". We need those jobs, because they become, and or lead to the high paying, highly skilled jobs. It's not going to happen over night, but we didn't get to this point over night either.

As for the taxes, and folks saying, "look what they're doing to us". It's time to take an honest look at where we are economically, without tax reform.

SlamDunk

Seems like an inefficient way to get oats to sparrows, and they still have to go through you-know-what to get them!




You don't have tell me...I'm a sparrow!

unclejohn

I like what I have heard about the tax plan. I like the supposed single page part the most. I have been a flat tax no deductions person since for ever. I think a tax cut for everyone is best and I think if you earn only one dollar you should pay a tax on it. Every body should have skin in the game. Since I retired and have no income but SS I think I can do know worse then break even or a little bit back. We will all know by April 2019. But as always you should watch this short video on taxes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgRbxHttZSM

MilanD

This is my take on it... Horse and sparrow.

EBEBRATT-Ed

What really bothers me is the millennial's lack of......drive. there are several I know of that are working for $15/hr and complain about it but aren't willing to improve themselves or do anything about it.

My Gf daughter's boyfriend is 32. The daughter was going to bring her bicycle to a bike shop for a flat. he couldn't (or wouldn't) fix a flat tire on a bicycle.....I think I could do that when I was about 8 years old so I said bring it over.

All of us started out the same, bicycle to lawnmowers to cars to boilers LOL.

Don't know who will replace us but I guess they will figure it out

Fred

If that is a true generalization, one has to wonder what we were thinking when we raised them to be that way????

Paul48

And, they were raised to be that way................Fact is....you can't have anything you want. There is no prize for finishing last, and mommy can't get you a raise.

MilanD

As someone who came to this great country from elsewhere with nothing, and as someone who worked his way to where I am now, I can tell you that getting ahead is not easy. One needs much luck, much drive, but also clear head, financial literacy, and a full heart. I am not sure if this is an innate combination or combination arrived at by nurture, but my grandma back in the old country used to say that kids don't grow up well if they aren't a bit cold and a bit hungry. And she was right. First time I remember being warm in winter is when I got here. And I didn't forget what it's like to be cold. Maybe that's why I am so fascinated with steam heating...

At any rate, as an administrator of a small non-profit arts center, I can tell you I meet a lot of smart and talented kids. They are children of middle class families, in good school districts, with college track written all over them. There are some brilliant kids. Why would they want to 'labor' for money when there are 'thinking' jobs out there. I get it.

But, blue collar work has been getting a shaft, at least since Regan. Someone commented earlier that their pay is basically stagnating the last 15 years... I'm sure the company is getting squeezed, but I'm also sure owner(s) are doing just fine. That's the problem of equitable distribution of earnings, whatever that happens to be.

Which also brings me to complacency. It is easier to 'go along' than to get ahead. There will always be people who get ahead and those that don't. Problem is, however, with a stacked deck that's against those born into poverty and dilapidated neighborhoods. Those kids can't see what is invisible to them. It takes Herculean work ethic and all going just right to escape it.

I have some rentals in, let's call it transitional neighborhoods. As soon as one does a bit better, your old life can catch up with you in a hurry.

In conclusion, we can't generalize, but as a society we need to decide if we should, figuratively, be helping our neighbour when his house is burning or not. Yes, he should be the first one holding a bucket, but alone, he can't put it out. I'm afraid we are going in that direction, being mislead that individual responsibility is the only thing that stands between you and a fulfilled life. We all need some luck along the way, and I see our job as people, to be bearers of good luck to others.

Fwiw....

hot_rod

Yikes, the millennial bashers:)

I'm the the father of one and have 6 nieces and nephews that are of that generation. They all worked from high school to present and contribute to society.

Amazing the the boomers got so much accomplished seeing as the generation prior to them probably thought the same, crazy rock and rollers! they will never amount to anything.

The millennial will be taking care of many of us and deciding our the future, y'all better find some good ones.

SlamDunk

I will defend millenials.

The ones I know are not lazy. We have an r&d facility where they are growing human organs. there are about a hundred kids over there ,most have phd’s. few are older than 30. In fact, one earn his md,phd from Duke at 16!

We should refrain from stereotyping a group of people. The ones I know are better than me!

Fred

I think most people look for an easy reason to explain why things are different. They are different because we evovle and what was important to a prior generation may not have the same value today. Having said that, I think we all have different life experiences that mold who we are and where we place our sense of value. These are crazy times and, for the most part, the craziness is lead by generations that came long before the labeled " Millennials" . As a people, we can all do better and be better, with just a little effort. Let's stop placing blame and take responsibility for how we arrived where we are, who and what we are, what we want for the next generation and how we should want a better life for even the least of us. It is our responsibility. It is what we should be about. It's not about laziness. Dreamers dream only because they have been given some of life's advantages. Not everyone is that fortunate.

BobC

We have been kicking lots of cans down the road for decades. Looking at the condition of the country we need to start rebuilding our infrastructure, it has been steadily declining for about 40 years now and that is going to cost a lot of money.

The Korean problem is getting worse, the mideast is in shambles, the Russians and Chinese are setting up camp in central and south America. The navy is in shambles and our bomber fleet is rapidly aging. The cost to support disabled soldiers is an ongoing concern that we can not ignore. In the last year we have gone out of our way to shed alliances so if things go sideways we will have to go it alone, so we now need a bigger military. All this means we need a large increase in military expenditure.

I have misgivings about the new tax plan because it assumes long term growth that may not be inn the cards. The CBO has told us the new tax plan has serious problems in the coming years and that is exactly when we will need to do some serious investing or watch it all go down the tubes. If I am right it may be to late to change things back by the time we find it's not working.

We need more money to do what has to be done or we have to decide to become a second rate power. people have a choice to make, ignoring what has to be done will not lead us to a happy place.

rant over,

Bob

Paul48

I don't bash all millennials. There are countless smart hardworking millennials. I bash the ones that choose to sit on their arses and complain they aren't getting enough freebies. I want the American dream for all Americans. But, that dream is not a gift. It involves hard work.
For the gentleman that said the kids complained about making $15 an hour and did nothing to improve their situation......I'll remind you, how it use to be. Once you found out that you were in a dead-end job, you left it and went to another with better opportunities. Companies competed for the best employees. The workforce naturally grew in it's level of skill.
The country is bankrupt. Every program is now funded with borrowed money. China is trying to tank the dollar, and there's a good chance they'll succeed. The nay-sayers are complaining that this tax reform will leave 1.5 trillion in debt for our children. The debt we're leaving is already 150 times that. If we do nothing, it will just continue to grow. This president just sent 2400 accountants to the Pentagon, and found they are missing huge amounts of money. For every piece of new legislation that costs the American people money, two must be removed. He's stopping funding for failed programs. He's halting payments to programs that were canceled 10 years ago. He's treating the country like a business, not grandma's house where you go to get a cookie. Keep watching as he drains the swamp. Oh.....and don't expect CNN to report it.

Steamhead

Forget "us" for the moment. What will happen to our customers? If, as it appears, the wealthy get all or most of the tax cuts, and the rest end up paying more, will they still be able to hire us?

Something to think about.

ChrisJ

> @Steamhead said:
> Forget "us" for the moment. What will happen to our customers? If, as it appears, the wealthy get all or most of the tax cuts, and the rest end up paying more, will they still be able to hire us?
>
> Something to think about.

I'm still stuck on the fact that apparently there are people that,just because they voted Trump, they are OK with whatever he does. Literally. Good bad doesn't matter.

I can't get passed that part of the discussion.


That and that apparently an entire generation was born lazy. They weren't taught this by previous generations they were simply born that way.


I think I'm done with the net for the day and it's only 5:15 am.

Gordy

Settle down. Stereotyping generations is nothing new. The greatest generations constituents were not all great, and so on.

Generations always think the next have it easy, and they always try to make it easier for the next generation then what they had to endure. Some unknowingly so.

If you dabble in the market beware once this bill is behind us completely, look for the correction. That's when the mom, and pops get raked off the table, and thanked for the ride. The market can not support 6k in one year. We are always gravitated to prosperous financial bubbles until they collapse with most of us in it.

As for the tax bills effects. I'll bet most of us without all the media debate will have hardly noticed a thing.

Remember with out taxes governments receive zero income. Think about that for a moment, and what all government provides us. The debate just becomes where that money is spent. As usual squeaky wheels get the grease.

As far as trades it's not uncommon to knock down 100plus k a year in all construction trades. Provided you are good at what you do. At least in my region. Overtime jobs are a key part to that equation.

100k a year was executive salary back when. The wage gap is an issue in this country. Contrary to what a lot of information provides goods, and services cost more. The dollars can only stretch so far.

Gordy

Supporting the enemy of the enemy which seems insane by some is not a new concept, but usually has unintended consequences.

Harvey Ramer

I guess each of us talks from our own personal experiences, and they are all different. I am a millennial, and so are a lot of my friends. The game is strong in some of them, a lot of them are still waiting for all they were promised.

@gordy I am aware that the market is due for a correction. But I am in a long term investment and I am still young. The ups and downs are something I can live with.

Economics will take care of the trades. When the wages increase to the right level, people will come to take their share. As of right now, I am still bidding against other people for jobs. And there are still people out there lowballing jobs. Some areas, I guess have a tradesman shortage. But in my opinion, that is often created by a disparity between cost of living and potential wages. Everyone has to make enough money to get ahead. If you can't do it in one way, you do it in another.

From what I can see, many small business trades companies can't pay their employees enough because they don't charge enough for their services.

Steamhead

ChrisJ said:

I'm still stuck on the fact that apparently there are people that,just because they voted Trump, they are OK with whatever he does. Literally. Good bad doesn't matter.

What amazes me is that Trump has long been known for stiffing contractors- and yet, there are contractors who supported him.

Sort of like Stockholm Syndrome. If you're not familiar, google it.

Jack

I am not a trumper. I detest the man and what he stands for. I have done work for those bazillionaires like donald who simply decide they won't pay you and laugh in your face telling you to come and get it. I caught him alone once and he left saying, "You're crazy!" I replied, "yes, and it people like you that make me that way." He paid me because I frightened him so. He should have seen it through my eyes. I then closed my contracting company because I was the one who would go to jail. That was '84.
Kansas tried this and collapsed. CA raised taxes and grew. I don't like paying taxes, but perhaps there is a lesson there. I'm 69, still working, and my taxes according to two calculators will go up. This bill was specifically directed at NY, NJ and CA. So much for fairness in the system. Well I was in the streets in the 60's. Now I'm back in the streets in my 60's.

Fred

As Trump drains the swamp, I just hope the drain is large enough to suck his fat a** down along with all the rest of the scum! I don't get it either. He's been a crook and a liar his entire life. Why do people think he has their interest or the greater interest of the country at heart. He stands for everything those people thought they were voting against. If he is an example of what not being a Millennial means, I'll take the Millennial every time. Oh well, on to better HH issues.

delta T

Speaking to the millennial issue....as a millennial, I will say this.

Millennials as a whole are not lazy, entitled, or lacking drive. Sure there are some bad apples, but the same is true for every generation. What about the 60 year old boomer with a "bad back" who has been leaching the disability system for 20 years? Obviously lots of examples I could give, but the point remains, it is not a millennial problem. The real 'millennial problem' is a rigged education system.

Colleges (even state colleges) are profit machines. (How else do they pay multi million dollar salaries to coaches?) They have a huge amount of political sway, huge amounts of liquid capital (or to put it another way, political bribe money...ahem...I mean lobbying power) and a huge amount of power over k-12 educational policy. They are the ones responsible for the lie told to all millennials that college is the ONLY way to get ahead in life and the ONLY possible way to get a sustainable career. The policy that has been pushed for most k-12 schools is that trade schools are a horrible option and should only be considered as a last resort. I take great issue with this.

Think about this. A millennial works really hard for years to get a degree, goes into huge amounts of debt, and works dead end jobs to pay their way as the go do this (because they are the only kind of jobs that allow you to go to class as well), during a massive recession, when the cost of education and food and housing are climbing faster than wages....and then after all that work, money and effort, they end up with very few real prospects to further a career and start paying off their debt. I think I would have a pretty sour outlook on life too once I realized that path that was laid out by all of my educators, was a farce designed to give more money to a college system that wants nothing more than to extract as much money as possible from their students.

I am speaking from experience btw, my wife has a masters degree in education and has taught all levels in the k12 spectrum, currently teaching college classes. She has been told explicitly on numerous times in the k12 world to dissuade kids from going to a trade school, even if in her opinion it is the best option for the kid. This is an endemic problem with the entire education system that needs to be corrected.

Millennials are not living at home because they are lazy, they have no other options. They are not incapable of fixing a lawn mower or changing a tire because they are stupid or don't want to learn how, they have never been showed how, or told that it is something important for them to know. They have in fact been actively discouraged from working with their hands or learning how to fix things.

This is a multi-generational problem involving lots of variables, and for my part, I am tired of hearing about 'lazy irresponsible millennials'.

My .02 FWIW

BobC

@delta T I agree the education sector is a disaster. The cost of an education is completely arbitrary and driven by excess pay given to those at the top of the heap. The admin buildings are bursting at the seams with people earning a very good living, it has become a cost plus business.

In the mid 50's a semester at Northeastern University cost a few hundred dollars, now you need quite a stack of benjamins and that does not cover books or lab fees.

One other problem we have is automation is costing us a lot more jobs than offshoring of work because of cheaper labor. We are facing the prospect of not having enough jobs for those who want to work. I saw hundreds of people lose their jobs and be replaced by conveyors and robots over the space of 18 months and the pace has quickened over the past decade. What are we going to do with the displaced workers?

We now have the gig economy where people work multiple jobs for a few hours each and often for short pay. This is one of the reasons health care became a crisis, the chance of finding and holding a regular job is getting slimmer and slimmer. people have to buy insurance outside of the workplace in many cases and these are not consultants earning 100k and up, these are folks in started gigs for short cash. Find a way to sell them insurance at an affordable cost or get ready for business at the ER's to go right through the roof.

Bob

SlamDunk

Steamhead said:

Forget "us" for the moment. What will happen to our customers? If, as it appears, the wealthy get all or most of the tax cuts, and the rest end up paying more, will they still be able to hire us?

Something to think about.

You are right. If your customer base lost a portion of their mortgage interest deduction and their state and local tax deductions, they will tighten their belts.

buckle up