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Corona Virus - How will this effect our trade?

24

Comments

  • unclejohn
    unclejohn Member Posts: 1,833
    I think that our jobs takes us into many different homes and exposes us to many different germs and what not. Many times i have been told by the home owner that they are not feeling well and just come on in. Ill keep my distance and get my check and move on. Like they say in the movie you can't stop whats coming. But this too shall pass.
    BillyO
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    Here is some information that one should be aware of.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

    Am posting this as information only, but since some might consider it political, suggest that you just add the information to your mental data base, dismiss it, or accept it for yourself and not discuss it here.

    If this contravenes the rules, I apologize, but there is information which may be considered political but which is important to understand.
    After all we do discuss regulations and laws which affect our businesses, which are enacted by politicians. I appreciate the fine line you walk here and enjoy the lack of politicization.
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    Most don’t realize how many die from influenza viruses right here in the United States yearly. Way more than the corona virus this far.

    What’s getting everyone uptight is the tracking of its spread. To be expected with world travel numbers daily.

    It’s near impossible to comprehend each products track we touch, and consume daily. Where has it been, and who touched it?
  • neilc
    neilc Member Posts: 2,689
    and who delivered my pizza last night ?
    known to beat dead horses
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    Exactly.

    In reference to Spanish flu pandemic. It was kept under wraps do to WW 1. The reason it was named the Spanish flu is because spaIns king fell victim to it.


    https://www.history.com/news/why-was-the-1918-influenza-pandemic-called-the-spanish-flu
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    Quite frankly it’s finally created a decent entry point in the equity markets 😁
    Zman
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    If you are working in the field, hand sanitizers are probably the best protection. new habits are needed to keep using them, and to keep hands away from faces.
  • ChrisJ
    ChrisJ Member Posts: 15,583
    nibs said:

    If you are working in the field, hand sanitizers are probably the best protection. new habits are needed to keep using them, and to keep hands away from faces.

    For viruses when you can't get to water you're 100% correct but get ready for Gordy to tell you you're wrong
    Single pipe quasi-vapor system. Typical operating pressure 0.14 - 0.43 oz. EcoSteam ES-20 Advanced Control for Residential Steam boilers. Rectorseal Steamaster water treatment
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    I never said hand sanitizers are completely worthless. What I did say nothing is comparable to washing with soap, and water. Unless you are willing to dip your hands in a bucket of bleach solution.
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    I also said that being to sanitary can reduce immunity. Unless of course your immunity is sacrificed through illness, or drugs.
    GroundUp
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    edited March 2020
    Gordy said:

    Most don’t realize how many die from influenza viruses right here in the United States yearly. Way more than the corona virus this far.

    12-61000/yr. And only half the American people bother to get a flu shot. Amazing.

    Some 15,000 people are killed by guns every year and we accept that too.

    We are only interested in the hype du jour. Rarely do we ever unite to do something about anything. Panic seems to be the order of the day.


  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    Unfortunately there are thousands of people who are infected/infectious and symptom free. When working in the field......
    Best practice is hand washing where possible, hand sanitizing where washing is not possible and keeping hands away from faces.
    Wiping hand rails and other items liable to have been touched with bleachy water and detergent, is also a good idea where possible.

    Gordy
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    edited March 2020
    I am always surprised by the fact that whenever someone expresses a concern, or as @Alan (California Radiant) Forbes did when he started this thread, how many people jump to the conclusion that there is "panic" or "fear" or "causing fear". There is a legitimate "concern" that is being addressed. How about we speak to the concern and try not to lecture others on panic, fear or being a fear monger? None of us have said we "fear" this issue but some of us have enough sense to suggest we plan a course of action (for ourselves) and be prepared should we actually be affected. For those who feel no action is required, that too is your plan of action... Take none or wait and see (which most of us are doing, while we try to stay informed). That's okay too.
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,425
    edited March 2020
    What most of you are assuming is that tomorrow is going to be the same as today. I am assuming it is not going to be the same. If I am wrong, I have nothing to lose, things will be the same, but if I am right and didn't prepare, I lose everything.

    How it affect our trade is going to be a shocker, I think. What has been happening in the economy is acerbated by the Corona Virus. Chinese manufacturing is collapsing, supply chains are fracturing, needed supplies are going "walkabout", liquidity is drying up (no I don't mean the drip from your boiler), and your ability to sell your services will diminish or evaporate.

    Competition among our members will drive down prices that can be charge for our services as the market for our services dries up because people will not have the money to have repairs made. Businesses will shutter projects for lack of liquidity to fund projects and commercial work will diminish. Business vacancies will increase further cutting new projects as there will an oversupply of commercial properties and no need for more.

    Manufacturing plants will cut production or go out of business entirely because of supply problems. Necessary components will be in short supply. You may find that there is a long, long lag time is getting what you need to do your job. Once your stock of materials are depleted, you will find that prices will rise dramatically as the remaining supplies dwindle. That would put a further dent in your ability to sell your work as people are unwilling or unable to buy your services. As supplies dwindle, manufacturing companies will need to increase prices as much as they can get away with, to get as much liquidity as they can, to service their debts. There is more, of course, there always is.

    That's the good news! I won't tell you the bad news as I don't want you jumping out a 1st story window. Look at the bright side, you'll have more time to post on this site.

    Now that I cheered you up, go out and make the world a better place.

    STEVEusaPAZmanGroundUpSolid_Fuel_Man
  • Will this epidemic become a pandemic? A lot depends on how long it will take to find the effective vaccine. Until then, I think we will see a spread of the virus. How fast it spreads is a function of quarantines and personal cleanliness. The 2 week incubation period is nature's chess move to outsmart tracking of the virus.

    I'd like to think that in 6 months time, it will all be figured out and the threat will blow over. There are a lot of smart people working overtime on this and considering the economic and personal threat, a lot of resources will be available to find a treatment.

    In the meantime, I'll keep answering my phone and making appointments. I'll be more diligent about washing my hands, not shaking hands, maybe even asking if anyone in the house is sick.
    8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour

    Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab
    ZmanGroundUpDZoro
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,425
    edited March 2020
    Alan, I'm not going into a political discourse on this. I think you're dead wrong, but I hope you're right.
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546

    What most of you are assuming is that tomorrow is going to be the same as today. I am assuming it is not going to be the same. If I am wrong, I have nothing to lose, things will be the same, but if I am right and didn't prepare, I lose everything.

    How it affect our trade is going to be a shocker, I think. What has been happening in the economy is acerbated by the Corona Virus. Chinese manufacturing is collapsing, supply chains are fracturing, needed supplies are going "walkabout", liquidity is drying up (no I don't mean the drip from your boiler), and your ability to sell your services will diminish or evaporate.

    Competition among our members will drive down prices that can be charge for our services as the market for our services dries up because people will not have the money to have repairs made. Businesses will shutter projects for lack of liquidity to fund projects and commercial work will diminish. Business vacancies will increase further cutting new projects as there will an oversupply of commercial properties and no need for more.

    Manufacturing plants will cut production or go out of business entirely because of supply problems. Necessary components will be in short supply. You may find that there is a long, long lag time is getting what you need to do your job. Once your stock of materials are depleted, you will find that prices will rise dramatically as the remaining supplies dwindle. That would put a further dent in your ability to sell your work as people are unwilling or unable to buy your services. As supplies dwindle, manufacturing companies will need to increase prices as much as they can get away with, to get as much liquidity as they can, to service their debts. There is more, of course, there always is.

    That's the good news! I won't tell you the bad news as I don't want you jumping out a 1st story window. Look at the bright side, you'll have more time to post on this site.

    Now that I cheered you up, go out and make the world a better place.

    That’s a doom, and gloom picture painted with a broad brush.

    Competition is healthy, and has been alive, and well for quite some time (decades).

    This really has not much to do with the future of the corona virus. Markets are reacting wildly to the event. It’s really a great excuse for a long over due correction. More to come.

    HomerJSmithAlan (California Radiant) ForbesGroundUp
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546

    Will this epidemic become a pandemic? A lot depends on how long it will take to find the effective vaccine. Until then, I think we will see a spread of the virus. How fast it spreads is a function of quarantines and personal cleanliness. The 2 week incubation period is nature's chess move to outsmart tracking of the virus.

    I'd like to think that in 6 months time, it will all be figured out and the threat will blow over. There are a lot of smart people working overtime on this and considering the economic and personal threat, a lot of resources will be available to find a treatment.

    In the meantime, I'll keep answering my phone and making appointments. I'll be more diligent about washing my hands, not shaking hands, maybe even asking if anyone in the house is sick.

    I have faith in modern times. Medicinal, and health organisations such as CDC, and WHO.

    Pandemics start from lack of transparency for various reasons. I don’t believe this to be the case.

    Air travel is the perfect vehicle to quickly spread viruses. Millions travel daily.

    If you look back to the eras of plagues. It was from lack medical knowledge, sanitary conditions, and transparency.

    Bottom line a lot has been learned from the past.

  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    @Alan (California Radiant) Forbes
    Alan, if a vaccine was developed today, after testing, gearing up to manufacture and distribute it, a year will have passed in order for it to be available for the average joe.
    Although 16 days is the recognized standard incubation period, there have been unconfirmed instances of longer periods up to 24 days.
    Kicking back in the desert sounds good, I love the desert.
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,425
    edited March 2020
    Gordy--"That’s a doom, and gloom picture painted with a broad brush." Even the Titanic hits an iceberg, as unexpected as that is. I see an iceberg, sorry you don't. I hope you're right. Broad brush? Perhaps. Since I don't know the future, I must extrapolate the future from the facts I have at hand.

    "Pandemics start from lack of transparency..." Ah--NO--pandemics start with a virus with an RO of 6 and asymptomatic contagion, but maybe that's what you meant.
  • It doesn't have to be the desert; the mountains will do as well. Just somewhere remote. We've been checking out northern Washington, near the Kettle River. : )

    The human population has managed to survive many challenges. This is yet again another test of our mettle.

    I just ordered some hand sanitizer on Amazon. Most of what I saw was "Out of Stock". I saw some price gouging going on.
    8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour

    Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    edited March 2020
  • KC_Jones
    KC_Jones Member Posts: 5,722
    Our plants in China have the office working from home as much as possible, factory workers are on standard schedule. We don’t have any reported cases at this time.
    2014 Weil Mclain EG-40
    EcoSteam ES-20 Advanced Boiler Control
    Boiler pictures updated 2/21/15
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    edited March 2020
    R numbers are how easily an illness is spread. Not any indication of its severity. SARS was a 4. The median number for corona is around 3.

    Transparency as in the origin of the epidemic is recognized, and it’s severity communicated. Not an easy task.
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
  • ethicalpaul
    ethicalpaul Member Posts: 5,694
    edited March 2020
    SlamDunk said:

    I’ve been around too long to be afraid. Not to make light of this virus but remember Y2K?



    The fear that everything was going to suddenly fail at midnight new year day? Businesses had to become y2k compliant! Whatever that meant. What a panic!



    I have become somewhat Buddhist over the years. manage what you can and dont worry about what you cant. worry is a waste of time.

    The reason everything didn't stop at midnight was because people saw and reacted to the problem, working for years to repair or replace the systems that indeed would have failed on Jan 1.

    So if you're using that case to say "don't worry about it, we don't have to do anything because nothing will go wrong" I'd say that is an incorrect analogy.
    NJ Steam Homeowner. See my sight glass boiler videos: https://bit.ly/3sZW1el
    ChrisJ
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    @ethicalpaul

    No, what I'm saying is, whether or not you like it, this virus is here so do what is possible within your realm to ride it out, help others and good luck to everyone.

    As far as Y2K, it was hyped as apocalyptic and it was a trigger for a handful of depressed people to kill themselves. That was sad to me. I was pretty active in computer controlled machinery around the world for an equipment manufacturer. We didn't have the ability to throw updates that couldn't be validated for each customer, so we didn't. Everything ran fine.

    That's neither here nor there but that is why I made the statement.
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    Just to try and mend the Y2K fence.
    The problem was very simple. Some programs had been written so that the spaces in numeric entries were padded with either zeros or spaces, and one of them, forget which one, (I plead oldtimers) would not respond to dates coded that way. Almost all were fixed years and months before 2020.
    Media went nutso about it.
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,425
    edited March 2020
    Gordy

    Bad news is always resisted, especially if the bad news is in conflict with our belief structure or existing paradigm. We all suffer from Confirmational Bias and as the term suggests, look for information that supports our beliefs and damn the facts.

    We all know that government and other bureaucracies would never mislead us, especially about something as important as the Corona Virus.
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    When I first put this map up, there were just a few red dots in North America.

    Global map of known COVID cases. By Johns Hopkins.
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Hope you guys are doing OK out there.
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    I recently spoke with my uncle who lives in Italy. Not good there. That country is comprised of high numbers of elderly people.
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    I have family in Italy. My niece and Brother-In-Law both have the virus. That was as of this past Wednesday. I will talk to them today and see if others have contracted it. Italy is pretty much on total lockdown. If people are out on the street and they are not going to the doctor, hospital or to get essential food supplies, they can be fined up to $300.00 and up to 3 months in jail. It is a mess over there.
  • hot_rod
    hot_rod Member Posts: 22,018
    There is a fine line between panic and caution. Unfortunately the folks in charge seem to be keeping that a blurred line.
    Bob "hot rod" Rohr
    trainer for Caleffi NA
    Living the hydronic dream
    GroundUprick in Alaska
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    I don't work in the industry, so I don't know how practical my suggestions will be, but, as someone who knows a little about medicine and a lot about biology, I thought I'd offer a few tips based on what little I know.

    First, wearing masks doesn't help, unless you're already infected and want to avoid contaminating others. For the rest of us, they just get uncomfortable and make you bring your hand to your face more often, which isn't good. This virus doesn't get airborne. It gets dispersed in water droplets that land on a surface where the virus can get picked up by touching the surface and transferring it to another surface or to your face. Your hands are the primary route of infection.

    The most important thing to do is also the most difficult: avoid touching your face unless you've just washed your hands. It sounds simple, but we touch our faces continually without thinking about it, and it's hard to stop doing something you do unconsciously.

    Wearing disposable rubber gloves can help. They keep your hands clean, and make you more aware when you're about to touch your face. Be sure to wash your hands throughly before putting them on, and replace them when they get torn.

    If you find you really need to touch your face, pull the gloves off—without touching the outside of either glove—and then wash your hands and put on another pair.

    This virus is very susceptible to soap and water, because its capsule is a lipid bilayer. Soaps and detergents disperse lipids in water, so they dissolve the virus's capsule, causing the virus to disintegrate.

    This structure also makes the virus vulnerable to drying out. A lipid bilayer membrane relies on being in contact with water on both sides. If it's not in contact with water, the water inside the capsule gradually diffuses out, causing the membrane to collapse and rupture. The virus can't survive on a dry surface for more than 24 hours (more or less, depending on relative humidity). Exposure to sunlight brobably shortens its viability, but I don't have specific data on that.

    Hope this helps.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
    STEAM DOCTOR