Heat pumps in NYC…how will the grid cope?

JakeCK

I just want to suggest that we maybe separate the longevity concerns from the equation between heat pumps and mod-cons, boilers and what have you for a bit. The serviceable life of these devices is engineered to be x number of years with an assumed quality of installation/workmanship. It is not so much a result of the actual technology used. Even your basic bare bones CI boiler won't last as long as its older counter part simply because it has been cheapened down to fail sooner.

ChrisJ

JakeCK said:

I just want to suggest that we maybe separate the longevity concerns from the equation between heat pumps and mod-cons, boilers and what have you for a bit. The serviceable life of these devices is engineered to be x number of years with an assumed quality of installation/workmanship. It is not so much a result of the actual technology used. Even your basic bare bones CI boiler won't last as long as its older counter part simply because it has been cheapened down to fail sooner.

I suggest we keep them because there's a balance between longevity, cost and efficiency.
Just because you can make a heat pump last a very long time (You absolutely can) does not mean it's affordable to do so, or that it'll be as affordable as a cast iron boiler.

It's all part of the equation.

It's difficult to compete with the simplicity of a cast iron boiler for cost and reliability.

Hot_water_fan

I suggest we keep them because there's a balance between longevity, cost and efficiency.
Just because you can make a heat pump last a very long time (You absolutely can) does not mean it's affordable to do so, or that it'll be as affordable as a cast iron boiler.

It's all part of the equation.

It's difficult to compete with the simplicity of a cast iron boiler for cost and reliability.

Agreed a CI boiler is very reliable. Can we agree that a CI boiler cannot provide AC and that's what the majority of Americans want much more than they want any kind of boiler?

ChrisJ

Hot_water_fan said:

I suggest we keep them because there's a balance between longevity, cost and efficiency.
Just because you can make a heat pump last a very long time (You absolutely can) does not mean it's affordable to do so, or that it'll be as affordable as a cast iron boiler.

It's all part of the equation.

It's difficult to compete with the simplicity of a cast iron boiler for cost and reliability.

Agreed a CI boiler is very reliable. Can we agree that a CI boiler cannot provide AC and that's what the majority of Americans want much more than they want any kind of boiler?

Depends.
How many Americans do not need A/C and need substantial heat?

Hot_water_fan

@ChrisJ well to start - few Americans use boilers. Heat pumps and furnaces are the vast majority of systems. Likewise, AC is extremely common. I think it’s 90% have AC - it’s not just central though- window and mini splits are also a good share. I’m not commenting on the comfort of any of these vs any others, just saying what the market has chosen. Similar to manual transmissions - they’re great, so great that you can’t buy a new car with one. 

JakeCK

standard Ci boilers today only have an designed service life of 20 years, not much different than an AC system. Will a boiler last longer than an AC unit despite this? If installed impeccably, yes, absolutely. How many of them are installed that well?

ChrisJ

Hot_water_fan said:

@ChrisJ well to start - few Americans use boilers. Heat pumps and furnaces are the vast majority of systems. Likewise, AC is extremely common. I think it’s 90% have AC - it’s not just central though- window and mini splits are also a good share. I’m not commenting on the comfort of any of these vs any others, just saying what the market has chosen. Similar to manual transmissions - they’re great, so great that you can’t buy a new car with one. 

That's strange.
I've owned far more manual transmissions than I have automatics, including my current 2019 car.

JakeCK

Just to be clear, I'm not all yay Heat Pumps!! rip out the boilers! I'm just pointing out the cheerleaders on both sides of the argument get a bit of tunnel vision.

JakeCK

I've owned two manual trucks, three automatics. Ford only has one US model that has a manual as an option today. The Mustang.

Hot_water_fan

@ChrisJ more power to you! But yeah, manuals aren’t popular at all. Seems like hydronics and manuals both are big in Europe, not in North America. I guess there was a fork in the road! 

Hot_water_fan

standard Ci boilers today only have an designed service life of 20 years, not much different than an AC system. Will a boiler last longer than an AC unit despite this? If installed impeccably, yes, absolutely. How many of them are installed that well?

Even beyond that: the AC is getting replaced no matter what. So can a new boiler last 40 years to save one heating related replacement vs the HP? Then, does anyone care if a boiler lasts 40 years? It’s a feature for sure and it sounds good enough, but people have to actually want it. 

Jamie Hall

Hot_water_fan said:

Rather dramatic and overblown concern. You can't burn coal for heat in NYC can you? What about wood? Dung? Peat? Did the New Yorkers revolt? No - most Americans never think about this topic.

Besides, this is a slow process, I'm sure people will have access to gas for generations to come (well except for the Americans who already don't have access to gas now - some markets get left behind if people don't value gas enough to pay up).

You can travel wherever you can afford. That hasn't changed.

Um... really? If you are so unfortunate to live in the California bay area, you will have to install all electric -- hear, hot water, cooking -- by 2029. Just passed today. There is no reason that the other coastal states won't head off the same cliff. And, yes, now you can still travel wherever you can afford -- but it's not as easy or pleasant, or it won't be. Or perhaps you haven't coped with the problems of an electric vehicle in cold weather?

hot_rod

ethicalpaul said:

In case anyone didn't get what I was putting out there, I was saying that the grid is already supporting thousands of these garbage window shaker installs so it won't have any problem ramping up as heat pumps come into play. And as mentioned, they are losing tons of heat through those units so the heating and cooling load should actually drop from current.

And as those get replaced or upgraded, good chance the will be with ECM or inverter drives. So power consumption for that building could go down. Along with many others I suspect, that have old technology “shakers”?

as much as I dislike window shakers the newer hotels I stay in have very quiet versions, maybe even heat pumps technology?

JakeCK

Jamie Hall said:

Hot_water_fan said:

Rather dramatic and overblown concern. You can't burn coal for heat in NYC can you? What about wood? Dung? Peat? Did the New Yorkers revolt? No - most Americans never think about this topic.

Besides, this is a slow process, I'm sure people will have access to gas for generations to come (well except for the Americans who already don't have access to gas now - some markets get left behind if people don't value gas enough to pay up).

You can travel wherever you can afford. That hasn't changed.

Um... really? If you are so unfortunate to live in the California bay area, you will have to install all electric -- hear, hot water, cooking -- by 2029. Just passed today. There is no reason that the other coastal states won't head off the same cliff. And, yes, now you can still travel wherever you can afford -- but it's not as easy or pleasant, or it won't be. Or perhaps you haven't coped with the problems of an electric vehicle in cold weather?

I read that is was only hot water, and heating. And it is only for replacement of equipment. Gas stoves were not banned.

I can see a black market forming where people buy the appliances from another region and then drive it in and have a friend or "handyman" install it.

Hot_water_fan

Oh come, on that’s the definition of slippery slope. The Bay Area has many laws that never make it anywhere else - just like any other region.

I’m not concerned about EV range in cold weather - I don’t have one. No one is forcing me to have one. If they were, it’d be decades away. I’m losing zero sleep over imaginary bans. 

jumper

If NYC is serious about going all electric it can consider providing for water source heat pumps & A/C. Certainly less expensive than upgrading electric service too quickly. Won't happen because talking heads want issues rather than practical improvements.

Jamie Hall

does anyone besides me recall the parable of the boiling frog? Look it up...

Mad Dog_2

I've always agreed and was recently reassured at my Energy Manager's Association Lecture about Macro-electrification and the whole Heat pump push: Our Guest speaker, Industry Energy Management Giant, Fred Goldner, Professor, Author, sitting on Multiple Boards, told us he is an environmentalist, always wanted to save the world, is a tree hugger, has his Masters Degree in PV, and had 40 years of practical experience. He added that he had ZERO economic interest or Horse in this race. He continued. that we don't have enough"Green" Electric on the Grid, nor do we have the electrical infrastructure in the streets OR the buidings. What about all the walls & Ceilings that will have to ripped open, the asbestos and lead paint that will be airborne and disturbed? Isn't total disruption, displacement of residents...The Human Issue mean anything? (Where are they to go? The Homeless & Welfare Hotels that are FILLED TO THE GILLS ALREADY? Or, the very violent and dangerous homeless shelters? And for you hydronic Hot water and steam , installers and repairists...Is the "scorched air" of the Heat pumps the way to go? I think not. Let's move the ball foward methodically moving toward more radiant, Solar HW & PV, Mod Cons, Geothermal. Mad Dog

ethicalpaul

Jamie Hall said:

does anyone besides me recall the parable of the boiling frog? Look it up...

That story is false, a frog will jump out of uncomfortable water. Are you arguing my point now?

Jamie Hall

Well, yes. The fable is false. Most fables are. The moral, however, is not: if one makes small incremental changes in a situation, very few people will notice until one has gotten somewhere where the folks would never have gone-- or wanted to go -- if the change was made all at once.