Heat pumps in NYC…how will the grid cope?

ethicalpaul

🤔

PS: That's the building I work in over there on the left...we have central air 

jumper

Thermal storage? ~100 btu per gallon. Homes with unused cellars can have a few hundred gallon tanks. Of course having auxiliary combustion heat makes electric more feasible.
I once discussed with municipal electric utility how we could do electric DHW for a forty suite apartment building. Big demand was morning so we could do nine hours night time. Question was for how many years can OntarioHydro commit to inexpensive energy?

ethicalpaul

Honestly, the de-gasification of NYC has been going on for years

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20151015/midtown/tenants-above-carnegie-deli-are-on-6th-month-without-heat-or-hot-water/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11577113/Residents-NYC-apartment-forced-borrow-HOT-PLATES-cook-dinner-left-without-gas.html

ethicalpaul

PS: @jumper I think you were trying to reply to that other thread

Mad Dog_2

The current grid nor all the occupied buildings CANNOT handle the increased load anytime soon.  This will take decades to achieve.  Energy efficiency is improving at a great pace, but we cannot wave a magic wand as some will have the gullible public think.  One step at a time   mad dog

ethicalpaul

But you agree also, that the heat pumps won’t all get installed at the wave of a magic wand either, right?

JakeCK

Just imagine how much more efficient those buildings would be if all of those window shakers where removed and the windows closed entirely. And is it correct to assume they remain year around even during the winter?

clammy

Personally I think all those window unit look great . I would only image how well there’s sealed and that the leakage and infiltration of outside air would help to increase grid load but common sense ain’t to common . Minds much Greater then ours are at work , there lining there ducks up so they may line there pockets w cash weather from the installation ,sales or just being a early investor in the process .
Would it not be great if it could be ensured that those who proposed these upgrades are barred from any finically gain like politicians , ceo and stock holder being it's for the good of every one so why should hucksters profit and we pay . I think you would find them not so eager to jump but in chaos and confusion and of course hysterics has given them a good chance at cleaning up money wise while we who work and pay shall foot the bill and some will get and pay not a single cent which in turn if fed funded is used , we all pay well maybe not all just us idiots who work there’s gonna be a lot of free money and they got there ducks lined up for sure . Just wonder how much nys new govern will put on the account . Remember those early 80 s nyc window program organized crime made out quite good and every body got totally crappy windows and there where a lot of politicians who made some coin also . It s great that every few years you can re write and fabricate any thing and it’s believed as god s honest truths . I myself am rewriting my own story as it is I am totally great ,perfect In all i do I never made a mistake and I’m special and extremely intelligence everything I do is for some one else if you believe this then I have a heat pump to sell you for ur window it’s only a billion dollars a non maintained bridge and road way comes w the deal . Lol
The grid will collapse as the Roman Empire did at which all the imagery money will be of no use . Stick stone flint and steel
Peace and good luck clammy
Please do not confuse reality w negativity and fantasy

ethicalpaul

JakeCK said:

Just imagine how much more efficient those buildings would be if all of those window shakers where removed and the windows closed entirely. And is it correct to assume they remain year around even during the winter?

I took this picture yesterday LOL so yes

ethicalpaul

In case anyone didn't get what I was putting out there, I was saying that the grid is already supporting thousands of these garbage window shaker installs so it won't have any problem ramping up as heat pumps come into play.

And as mentioned, they are losing tons of heat through those units so the heating and cooling load should actually drop from current.

ChrisJ

ethicalpaul said:

In case anyone didn't get what I was putting out there, I was saying that the grid is already supporting thousands of these garbage window shaker installs so it won't have any problem ramping up as heat pumps come into play.

And as mentioned, they are losing tons of heat through those units so the heating and cooling load should actually drop from current.

Assuming a space needs 15,000 btu/h for a 20 degree temperature drop.
This space will likely need a lot larger unit for a 70 degree temperature increase, no?

ethicalpaul

I would have to do a heat loss Chris, you know that! But in seriousness, these units keep each other warm, there is very little area exposed to an exterior wall.

ChrisJ

ethicalpaul said:

I would have to do a heat loss Chris, you know that! But in seriousness, these units keep each other warm, there is very little area exposed to an exterior wall.

Heat loss and heat gain typically mirror eachother.
So if that unit needs 15K cooling for a 20 degree drop, it's going to need a lot more for a 70 degree rise. That's pretty easy to assume.

Especially if you have a super cheap neighbor below you that doesn't turn their heat on, reuses bath water etc.

Jamie Hall

ChrisJ said:

ethicalpaul said:

I would have to do a heat loss Chris, you know that! But in seriousness, these units keep each other warm, there is very little area exposed to an exterior wall.

Heat loss and heat gain typically mirror eachother.
So if that unit needs 15K cooling for a 20 degree drop, it's going to need a lot more for a 70 degree rise. That's pretty easy to assume.

Especially if you have a super cheap neighbor below you that doesn't turn their heat on, reuses bath water etc.

Absolutely correct. heat transfer through a wall or whatever is dependent on the delta T across the wall -- it isn't directional. Therefore for a 70 degree delta T heating load, you will need almost exactly 3.5 times as much power as you will for a 20 degree air conditioning load. And I'm sorry, @ethicalpaul , the argument about keep each other warm also applies to keep each other cool, so it's not a useful point.

The Brits -- who are, as usual, slightly ahead of us in both making mistakes and recognising them -- have figured out that oh gee whiz we don't have the power to do this heat pump thing and we aren't going to, either, in the time frame proposed. Oh my...

JakeCK

ChrisJ said:

Especially if you have a super cheap neighbor below you that doesn't turn their heat on, reuses bath water etc.

Oh common, not many people are going to suffer through how cold the apartment would get with out having any heat on. At least not enough to be statistically relevant.

ChrisJ

JakeCK said:

ChrisJ said:

Especially if you have a super cheap neighbor below you that doesn't turn their heat on, reuses bath water etc.

Oh common, not many people are going to suffer through how cold the apartment would get with out having any heat on. At least not enough to be statistically relevant.

We just had someone on the forum that admitted to turning the boiler off except when they really needed it.

I had never heard of such a thing before.

ethicalpaul

We'll find out! Gas is going away sooner or later.

ChrisJ

ethicalpaul said:

We'll find out! Gas is going away sooner or later.

Not in our lifetime.

ethicalpaul

It is not that we have so little time but that we lose so much. ... The life we receive is not short but we make it so; we are not ill provided but use what we have wastefully.

- Seneca the Younger

Hot_water_fan

Absolutely correct. heat transfer through a wall or whatever is dependent on the delta T across the wall -- it isn't directional. Therefore for a 70 degree delta T heating load, you will need almost exactly 3.5 times as much power as you will for a 20 degree air conditioning load. And I'm sorry, @ethicalpaul , the argument about keep each other warm also applies to keep each other cool, so it's not a useful point.

The Brits -- who are, as usual, slightly ahead of us in both making mistakes and recognising them -- have figured out that oh gee whiz we don't have the power to do this heat pump thing and we aren't going to, either, in the time frame proposed. Oh my...

Let's not forget solar gain for AC - winter days in NYC are short and often overcast. Not so for summer. I wouldn't be surprised if heating vs. cooling loads were pretty close!

JakeCK

Heat pumps in apartments are

Hot_water_fan said:

Let's not forget solar gain for AC - winter days in NYC are short and often overcast. Not so for summer. I wouldn't be surprised if heating vs. cooling loads were pretty close!

I doubt they are even remotely close.

ChrisJ

JakeCK said:

Heat pumps in apartments are

Let's not forget solar gain for AC - winter days in NYC are short and often overcast. Not so for summer. I wouldn't be surprised if heating vs. cooling loads were pretty close!

I doubt they are even remotely close.

My heating load is 72,000 at -8f as indicated by the Ecosteam.

My cooling load is roughly 36,000 in the low 90s with a dew point in the mid 70s.

Yes.... Not even remotely close.


Winter days being short and overcast increases heating load....

Hot_water_fan

My heating load is 72,000 at -8f as indicated by the Ecosteam.

My cooling load is roughly 36,000 in the low 90s with a dew point in the mid 70s.

Yes.... Not even remotely close.


Winter days being short and overcast increases heating load....

@ChrisJ do you live in a high rise? I'm talking about buildings with units that share walls. My heat load - probably 18kbtu/h and cooling is likely 12-15kbtu/h due to shared walls. They make a huge difference!

Although you do make my point a bit - So 72,000 at a delta T of 73 and 36,000 at a delta T of maybe 22? They're closer than the delta T's indicate. PLUS there's dehumidification load.

JakeCK

It's Jake, not Jack.

And I was suggesting, as part of the installation of mini-splits or whatever, those window shakers were removed it would significantly reduce both the cooling and heating load. I would imagine the stack effect in those high rises is pretty powerful.

ChrisJ

Hot_water_fan said:

My heating load is 72,000 at -8f as indicated by the Ecosteam.

My cooling load is roughly 36,000 in the low 90s with a dew point in the mid 70s.

Yes.... Not even remotely close.


Winter days being short and overcast increases heating load....

@ChrisJ do you live in a high rise? I'm talking about buildings with units that share walls. My heat load - probably 18kbtu/h and cooling is likely 12-15kbtu/h due to shared walls. They make a huge difference!

Although you do make my point a bit - So 72,000 at a delta T of 73 and 36,000 at a delta T of maybe 22? They're closer than the delta T's indicate. PLUS there's dehumidification load.

No, I do not.
But I live where it gets colder than where you are.

That makes a big difference.

Hot_water_fan

No, I do not.
But I live where it gets colder than where you are.

That makes a big difference.

Well of course! But we're talking NYC. Unless NYC relocates north soon, it applies! The delta T is not the only factor. Humidity and solar gain are significant variables. Balance points also decrease in multi-family housing.

jumper

Still say that at certain times of day there is surplus electricity. Decades ago Brits used "electric fires". Each heated room used resistance to heat some mineral and then that stored thermal energy would be harvested as needed.

Heat pumps do not produce high temperatures so one needs more mass. Over long enough time cheapest electric heat is resistance. But the extra distribution and generation required will cost $$$$ and years.

ethicalpaul

> because are all those people going to remove those window AC units and reduce heat loss? No.

Yes they will because the heat pumps will provide better quieter cooling and they will be able to use the windows for fresh air again.

Hot_water_fan

@jumper

Heat pumps do not produce high temperatures so one needs more mass. Over long enough time cheapest electric heat is resistance. But the extra distribution and generation required will cost $$$$ and years.

Let's remember that most Americans have some type of AC. Like 90%. So the decision, for nearly everyone, will be: do I replace my broken AC with a heat pump or not? They cost about the same, so it's a simple choice: you get another heat source, fueled by multiple fuels for cheap. If there's a compelling reason, you can keep the original heat source. Or junk it. People will make (and own) their decision once we pose the question correctly.

ChrisJ

Hot_water_fan said:

No, I do not.
But I live where it gets colder than where you are.

That makes a big difference.

Well of course! But we're talking NYC. Unless NYC relocates north soon, it applies! The delta T is not the only factor. Humidity and solar gain are significant variables. Balance points also decrease in multi-family housing.

That's true,
But NYC tends to run cooler than MD no?

I still think Jack is right. Yes, that was on purpose.

JohnNY

The window units in those pictures are cooling the perimeter rooms and so they are likely to be only part of the story and a percentage of the total demand. Many of the internal spaces will need additional conditioning systems. This conversation is happening repeatedly all over the state as we speak. It's all very anecdotal and hypothetical.

JakeCK

At the risk of beating a deadhorse, I don't believe the transition to heat pumps is as perilous as many claim it is, while at the same time many of the proponents of new technologies need to step back a minute and remember a one size fits all approach won't work and pushing bans is just asking for trouble. Both in the way of push back on good policy along with the bad.

Take my very typical 1920's colonial. Poor insulation, as drafty as an outhouse, lots of windows, etc. When I run the numbers I find very favorable numbers for an a2w heat pump. Not even counting the contribution from the solar panels the numbers are good. If only I could find a supplier/manufacturer with a solid track record who sells to the public... and find the time.

146ccf for the month of February. Almost all of it is for the boiler. The only other gas appliance is my dryer. As @hot_rod has recently pointed out the real efficiency of boilers with short cycles due to light loads or being oversized is far from the boiler plate ratings. But even assuming %80 that means only 117ccf went in to the house over the course of the last month. The past month was warm too. 38.1F average. A heat pump would love those temperatures, I would bet I would have been averaging a COP of at least 2.5 to 3 for the past month. At a COP of 2.5 that works out to 47ccf of heat. That is the equivalent of 1405kWh. Add in my actual usage and I would have used 2061kWh last month. Now with that I run over to First Energy's bill calculator and I would have had an electric bill of $142 with no help from my solar, vs my $196 gas bill. But I do have solar and while it was getting hit pretty hard Dec and Jan, Feb it did very well producing 842kWh. With that subtracted from my usage I would have been looking at a bill of only $86. Oh and I never burned up all of my credit from last year and it is already starting to build back up. Uh oh. At this exact moment it is putting out 10,415watts. I just wish I could take that and stuff it in my pocket for later use, but that's ok. At this exact moment I'm probably powering half my block. I'm being neighborly!

If I want to use a more realistic number for boiler efficiency, say 70% because the load was so light for the month and it is oversized by a factor of 2... well those numbers get much better. $130 for last month with out solar, ~$73 with that months solar production.

Hot_water_fan

That's true,
But NYC tends to run cooler than MD no?

Absolutely, but not by much. 2 degrees colder on the coldest day of the last 36 months and 1 degree cooler on the hottest day. I don't know how humidity compares.

JakeCK

ChrisJ said:

I still think Jack is right. Yes, that was on purpose.

HarHarHar

JUGHNE

Concerning the solar gain for these apartments, depending upon compass points;

probably minimal in the winter because of short cloudy days.

But maximum in the summer because of longer sunny days.

All masonry construction, usually the heat gets in by the night time.

Jamie Hall

I just find it all very sad. We will look back in twenty or thirty years to a time when we could heat and cool our homes as we liked, cook our food as we pleased, travel where and when we wanted, and say to ourselves... what happened? One can't point to a lack of intelligence, but one can point to a remarkable inability to think about things as systems, and to contemplate the impact of this change on that part of the web.

Oh well.

ChrisJ

Jamie Hall said:

I just find it all very sad. We will look back in twenty or thirty years to a time when we could heat and cool our homes as we liked, cook our food as we pleased, travel where and when we wanted, and say to ourselves... what happened? One can't point to a lack of intelligence, but one can point to a remarkable inability to think about things as systems, and to contemplate the impact of this change on that part of the web.

Oh well.

I don't know......
At what point did everyone chasing "efficiency" become popular to the point of spending more to get that efficiency than they can ever save?

Now we're stuck with short lived expensive equipment that often isn't reliable and it's difficult to fix.
How did we gain here?

ChrisJ

JohnNY said:

The window units in those pictures are cooling the perimeter rooms and so they are likely to be only part of the story and a percentage of the total demand. Many of the internal spaces will need additional conditioning systems. This conversation is happening repeatedly all over the state as we speak. It's all very anecdotal and hypothetical.

Do interior spaces with no outside walls, flooring or ceiling need heating in the winter?
I can understand them needing both latent and sensible heat removal in the summer, but would they ever have heat loss?

Hot_water_fan

Rather dramatic and overblown concern. You can't burn coal for heat in NYC can you? What about wood? Dung? Peat? Did the New Yorkers revolt? No - most Americans never think about this topic.

Besides, this is a slow process, I'm sure people will have access to gas for generations to come (well except for the Americans who already don't have access to gas now - some markets get left behind if people don't value gas enough to pay up).

You can travel wherever you can afford. That hasn't changed.

Hot_water_fan

I don't know......
At what point did everyone chasing "efficiency" become popular to the point of spending more to get that efficiency than they can ever save?

Now we're stuck with short lived expensive equipment that often isn't reliable and it's difficult to fix.
How did we gain here?

I'm definitely suspicious of many efficiency claims - insulation, air-sealing, mod-cons, the whole lot of them. Some scenarios make sense but don't for these methods. As interest rates rise, these methods look worse and worse.

That said, yet again, let's remember the average American's likely decision here: one day, maybe tomorrow or maybe in 2050, their AC will break. On that day, they'll be presented with the option of replacing with another AC or a Heat pump, for basically the same price. This more or less eliminates the expense and reliability concerns! If the homeowner is so inclined, they can geek out on operating costs. Or not.

ethicalpaul

Jamie Hall said:

I just find it all very sad. We will look back in twenty or thirty years to a time when we could heat and cool our homes as we liked, cook our food as we pleased, travel where and when we wanted, and say to ourselves... what happened? One can't point to a lack of intelligence, but one can point to a remarkable inability to think about things as systems, and to contemplate the impact of this change on that part of the web.

Oh well.

I didn't hear about the travel restrictions sneaking into these gas restrictions, thanks for the heads up