More New York State madness

leonz

I caught the very end of this sick conversation today but apparently the whizzzz kids in the capital have made it a state law that heat pumps are to replace all other heating methods in all residential and commercial heating by 2030.

I just shake my head; we do not have the high voltage capacity locally let alone statewide to deliver the needed GREEN energy which we do not have for 115 KVA power to the substations.

I am happy that the NYS HEAP program and my coal stoker boiler are heating my home.

I smell a rat somewhere in Spain or a local one that has been trying to restart the numerous privately held mothballed coal plants in central and western New York that were going to be converted into crypto generators that probably will not be converted now.

Long Beach Ed

Insanity. But don't expect the voters to hear about this.

EBEBRATT-Ed

They will fall flat on their face the power grid will never support this

ethicalpaul

The grid will definitely support this.

1. Heat pumps don't use that much.
2. It won't happen in one day, it will happen in decades.

I'd be more worried about the tech being able to keep up with upstate winters, but the tech will improve over that time just like the grid will. Combustion at home is coming to an end, finally. Get on the bus or watch it roll on by and yell at the clouds.

This thread is the latest in an endless series and I'm here for it LOL

Jamie Hall

One very minor correction, @ethicalpaul -- you suggest the transition will take decades. Last I looked at the proposal, the deadline was 2030 -- 7 years from now (deadline for electric cars will be the same). That's not decades. In the power industry that's tomorrow morning.

ethicalpaul

I haven't read this proposal, Jamie, but surely it can't be saying that 100% of residences will have no combustion in 7 years.

Hot_water_fan

I assume it’s new construction based on the press releases I’ve seen. So no, not 100%. Maybe 100% of 1%? I don’t think new houses are much of the housing stock in NY. 

pecmsg

ethicalpaul said:

The grid will definitely support this.

1. Heat pumps don't use that much.
2. It won't happen in one day, it will happen in decades.

I'd be more worried about the tech being able to keep up with upstate winters, but the tech will improve over that time just like the grid will. Combustion at home is coming to an end, finally. Get on the bus or watch it roll on by and yell at the clouds.

This thread is the latest in an endless series and I'm here for it LOL

I too hope the Tech’s get better but I’m not betting on that.

WMno57

Very timely topic. Friday morning will be Negative 6 F here. During the day it will warm up to NEGATIVE 2 F. Straight temperature, not wind chill. Not ideal heat pump weather. No problem for my 75 year old Weil McLain boiler.
Chicago will be about 2 or 3 degrees warmer because of the heat island.
Jennifer Granholm should assign her bureaucrats to calculate how much electricity Chicago would need this weekend if everyone there converted to a Heat Pump. She should make that number public. Then the public can decide for themselves if this is feasible or not.
250 to 750 people died because of the Texas power outage. How many people will die because of our rush to de-carbon? And for what? Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Iran, are not going to de-carbon. They are not going to get on the bus, and they will not sit by and yell at clouds.
Forget about the rest of the world for a moment, and look at our own country. Indiana, Wyoming, and many other States that are filled with people who are sick and tired of being dismissed as "Deplorables" by out of touch Coastal Elites will not de-carbon either.

Long Beach Ed

Gas and oil heat is banned in virtually all NYC new construction and major remodeling now. This has devastated the construction of spec-built housing for owner occupancy which has dropped by 70% over the past seven months, and brought new housing starts to almost zero.

Many, many builders are installing resistance baseboard heat rather than heat pumps because of its low initial cost. News quickly spread of $23,000 heating bills for "new houses" and the market has collapsed. Even the heat-pump houses are seeing bills that triple gas-heated homes, and buyers have gotten the word.

Just this Monday, the City Council has agreed to consider correcting its "all electric" mistake, after Consolidated Edison complained that sufficient electric supply is not attainable anytime in the foreseeable future... so there may be some sanity left against this eco-foolery.

The same politicians who defunded their police, incited riots and stopped arresting muggers are fearing their own blood in the streets now that the property-owning class is waking up.

Constantin

ethicalpaul said:

The grid will definitely support this.

Been a while, hope you all are well. Just a note from a mere homeowner... not sure I fully agree, it likely will come down to the last mile in many instances.

For example, a friend of mine is working on a project in Charlton, MA where Amazon is building a mega warehouse complex, went all-electric re: infrastructure and now National Grid is having fits trying to figure out how to deliver the required kilowatts to that site.

Similarly, P Boone Pickens in TX was only too happy to build lots of wind generating capacity, as long as someone else would pay for the interconnects, transmission lines, etc. to get that power to market. Meanwhile, all across the NE folk are protesting new transmission lines from hydro Quebec down to MA, NY, etc. as eyesores. (ditto new gas lines from PA)

In Cambridge, MA, we added 20% to the local population since the last census yet infrastructure has not been upgraded to allow en-masse decarbonization. The local switching station is now totally hemmed-in by rampant development on all sides, so I don't know how the utility will double the local power-delivery capacity to account for EVs and HPs.

Robert_25

Hot_water_fan said:

I assume it’s new construction based on the press releases I’ve seen. So no, not 100%. Maybe 100% of 1%? I don’t think new houses are much of the housing stock in NY. 

New construction is the first step. They also intend to electrify existing homes later, as their fossil-fuel boilers require replacement.

In my area most homes are heated with oil or gas boilers and hot water radiation that is sized for 180F water. In most cases a swap to an air to water heat pump will also require one or more of the following:

Warm clothes.
Additional radiation.
Reduced head load of the structure.

People already struggling to pay their bills can't afford this.

EBEBRATT-Ed

@ethicalpaul

@ethicalpaul

With all due respect I think your way off base here.

Most houses would need a 4 ton heat pump (48000btu). Look one up the condensing unit (never mind the electric heat strips or the air handler) will draw 26 amps at 240 volt. That is when it is able to heat the house without frosting up. When it defrosts it run cooling AND the electric heat strips at the same time (very energy efficient) it's only for a short time but you still have to be wired for that load and the grid has to support it.

Not all heat pumps on a street will be on defrost at the same time but COULD be.

I don't care how efficient a heat pump is and weather they can heat down to -10 or whatever, if the od temp is below 32 they will be forced into defrost and the lower the temp they are forced to operate at the more defrosting they will do

A lot of houses only have 100 amp services still and now will be asked to support electric car chargers and heat pumps.....not happening. People will be forced into 200 amp services with all the new regulations including GFCI, ARC Fault Breakers and the Newley required outdoor disconnect switches new meter socket and service cable drop This is no longer a $1000 service change from 100amp to 200amp that's in the dark ages.

Most houses with a 100 or 200 amp service have #6 or #4 ALunimum conductors coming in from the pole, that should get things glowing.

For new houses, yes, they will be forced into going in that direction it will come.

I am not fighting this. This is the direction this will go in for residential.

But commercially are we going to heat the Empire State building with heat pumps...no. They cannot force all the steam heated apartments in NYC to empty the building of tenant's to install heat pumps so boilers will stay for a while. But if anyone thinks the grid will be able to handle this load in 7 years I don't think so

These new services will cost serious money

Long Beach Ed

We're in a focus group for a major gas utility here in New York. We were asked to give our opinion on a proposal:

"If New York State offered homeowners $20,000 to convert from Gas/Oil to electric heat, what percentage do we feel would take the money, and what percentage would return to oil/gas heat after they saw they new heating costs".

This is all an effort to scam people. The same virtue-signalers losing thousands on solar roofs will be lining up to lose thousands on electric heat. Then they'll want to be bailed out in old age when they're under water on their home values.

Hot_water_fan

New construction is the first step. They also intend to electrify existing homes later, as their fossil-fuel boilers require replacement.

In my area most homes are heated with oil or gas boilers and hot water radiation that is sized for 180F water. In most cases a swap to an air to water heat pump will also require one or more of the following:

Warm clothes.
Additional radiation.
Reduced head load of the structure.

People already struggling to pay their bills can't afford this.

It's not that hard if a boiler remains as supplement. You could replace your boiler the day before the "mandate" and probably be set for life.

Having converted from furnace to air source heat pump, it was extremely uneventful and now more comfortable. Americans want AC so the heat pump is getting installed either way, it's just whether or not these heat pumps can reverse to heating or not.

EBEBRATT-Ed

If their are any rebates or incentives involved they will not allow the existing gas and oil fired equipment to remain as a back up. That defeats the energy savings they want. That wont happen

Hot_water_fan

Many, many builders are installing resistance baseboard heat rather than heat pumps because of its low initial cost. News quickly spread of $23,000 heating bills for "new houses" and the market has collapsed. Even the heat-pump houses are seeing bills that triple gas-heated homes, and buyers have gotten the word.

@Long Beach Ed what's the penetration of AC in NYC among brand new houses? I assume it's pretty high, probably > 90%? So there's no cost savings by installing electric baseboard if you're already installing an air conditioner. $23,000 is about 100,000kwh. Over 5 months, that’s 20,000kwh a month or 24kwh per hour, so 115 A 24/7 for just baseboard. This news seems fake!

Jamie Hall

Another number to consider on the "decades" argument (and the reg applies to replacement, as well as new construction, and rebates require complete changeout).

What is the mean time between failure of existing fuel fired heating systems? Somewhere around 10 years. So -- instead of decades to changeover (the argument usually cited by those who think there's time to build out the grid) you will be replacing roughly half of the existing heating systems win 10 years, never mind new construction.

Hope you have a good stock of candles...

ChrisJ

Gentlemen,

I'll just leave these here.....

Steamhead

@Constantin , good to hear from you! Been a while.

Another way to look at this is what the ΔT is between inside and outside. With A/C, if you're maintaining, say, 75° inside and 95° outside that's a 20° ΔT. But in winter, maintaining say 65° inside when it's 0° outside is a 65° ΔT, which requires much more energy to achieve.

In my neighborhood, we routinely experience line-voltage levels as low as 100 volts in the summer when all the A/C units are running. I'm sure if everyone had a heat pump, the local grid would crash completely.

mattmia2

Steamhead said:

I'm sure if everyone had a heat pump, the local grid would crash completely.

If the utilities continue to not be held accountable for their actions that is going to happen anyhow. My best guess is the last time any investment was made in the power distribution in my neighborhood was the 1950's.

ChrisJ

mattmia2 said:

Steamhead said:

I'm sure if everyone had a heat pump, the local grid would crash completely.

If the utilities continue to not be held accountable for their actions that is going to happen anyhow. My best guess is the last time any investment was made in the power distribution in my neighborhood was the 1950's.

It's being upgraded in NJ constantly and has been my entire life.
We had a bunch of new lines run past the house I grew up in in the mid 80s, and then again in the 90s, and then they ran more in the 2000s.

Both the town I live in, and the town I work in an hour away also keep getting upgrades.

I've also seen some very high voltage lines run a long distance near by. New towers and all.

I've also noticed constant additions and upgrades around where my dad lives now in NE PA roughly 3 hours from me.

mattmia2

DTE fixed a broken crossarm on the primary lines about 15 years ago when I called and reported it. After the cable utility found that their lines burned a hole in the cable trunk and destroyed the lacing when they shorted and came down in a rain storm, they cut the trees out of only that section.

Jamie Hall

In most states, the power companies czn only do what the public utilities commissions allow them to do. If they aren't upgrading the lines, it's because that is an expense which they weren't permitted to make.

Think about it. Who runs the public utilities commissions?

mattmia2

Jamie Hall said:

Think about it. Who runs the public utilities commissions?

The utilities that donate to the legislature's campaigns.

Jamie Hall

mattmia2 said:

Jamie Hall said:

Think about it. Who runs the public utilities commissions?

The utilities that donate to the legislature's campaigns.

Not in CT at least -- it's the NEA and the SEIU who control the legislature.

ratio

It's almost as if there are no technological solutions for non-technological problems. (But without a funny meme, sorry.)

fentonc

NY's grid demand currently peaks by a substantial amount in the summer time due to air conditioning, and I don't think it's predicted to shift to a winter peak until 2030 or later - substantial changes to both the grid and hvac infrastructure take a very long time, which is why it's important to start planning well in advance. The idea that the sudden decline in home sales is due to hvac mandates or gossip about heating bills is silly - mortgage interest rates went from like 3% to 7% and home sales across the entire country have dropped like a rock because costs skyrocketed (even in states that love coal and gas!).

WMno57

Right now as I type this: Negative 9 F straight temperature. 26 MPH sustained wind. I've lived in the Great Lakes region my entire life. Michigan, Chicago, Indiana. I have zero respect for people who don't live in this climate, lecturing me and throwing frowny faces.
If you Greenies really want to de-carbon, you have to do a better job of explaining how exactly this will work.
I'm aware of the DOE's plans to make heat pumps "Grid Aware". That means the government will have rolling heat blackouts to keep the Grid up. Not acceptable! Build more fission plants and I will consider getting on your de-carbon bus.