Plan B - In case Natural gas or Fossil fuels runs out

Aluvaboy

I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the situation once we run out of fossil fuels. I just read that petroleum reserves will all be exhausted by 2050. So in another 30 years what should be our game plan as far as home heating is concerned. Move to more moderate climate ? Geothermal? etc. Just curious to know.

Hot_water_fan

Don’t worry about it. We will not run out of gas or oil. Will we run out of economic gas or oil is a separate question (that’s what reserves for oil companies means). We will use electricity for heating even more than we do now. Not a big deal. 

TAG

Aluvaboy said:

I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the situation once we run out of fossil fuels. I just read that petroleum reserves will all be exhausted by 2050. So in another 30 years what should be our game plan as far as home heating is concerned. Move to more moderate climate ? Geothermal? etc. Just curious to know.

Marry money ... solves it all.

EdTheHeaterMan

Hot_water_fan said:

Don’t worry about it. We will not run out of gas or oil. Will we run out of economic gas or oil is a separate question (that’s what reserves for oil companies means). We will use electricity for heating even more than we do now. Not a big deal. 

Really? I thought that it would just all of a sudden STOP. You know... Like running out of gas in your car. All the oil wells will stop producing oil on the same day because they will all run out of oil on the same day! You know all the oil wells are connected together underground, so we will all run out at the same time. I know this because I saw this picture on the internet!

DanInNaperville

Easy enough to use electricity from wind or solar to create hydrogen. Then use to hydrogen to make methane (which is essentially natural gas). Do we call it un-natural gas?
It could be that it's cheaper and easier to use the existing local distribution system of gas pipes vs. digging up enough copper to run big enough cables to every house to support resistance heating.
Heat pumps are a lot more efficient in warmer temperate zones, and will probably take over in those regions, but their efficiency goes way down with the outdoor temperature. If you switch everyone over to heat pumps in cold climates, you're back at the issue of needing new big copper power lines to every house.
Big batteries at every house is another way to smooth out the demand curve and reduce the need for peak demand power lines to every house, but those are expensive, too.
- by the way, there is an incredible amount of natural gas available from sea-bed methane, but that has the same climate problems as any other new gas. Gas synthesized from renewable sources (including nuclear) could pull its carbon out of the air and be carbon neutral.

Jamie Hall

As @Hot_water_fan says, we are not going to run out of oil or natural gas -- at least so far as nature is concerned. What will happen is that regulatory and government action will raise the costs enough so that people are forced to turn to other means of staying warm and cooking and moving stuff around and so on. This is a government/regulatory problem, not a geologic one.

As to what Plan B will be, the enlightened ones have no clue. So -- you'd better have a plan yourself. Nobody is going to come to bail you out. And, honestly, if I lived in an urban or even suburban area, I'd be real worried. As it is, we are on a farm, and my ancestors lived here 150 years ago without any of that stuff, and so can we, so long as no one comes by to expropriate it.

Aluvaboy

Jamie Hall said:

As @Hot_water_fan says, we are not going to run out of oil or natural gas -- at least so far as nature is concerned. What will happen is that regulatory and government action will raise the costs enough so that people are forced to turn to other means of staying warm and cooking and moving stuff around and so on. This is a government/regulatory problem, not a geologic one.

As to what Plan B will be, the enlightened ones have no clue. So -- you'd better have a plan yourself. Nobody is going to come to bail you out. And, honestly, if I lived in an urban or even suburban area, I'd be real worried. As it is, we are on a farm, and my ancestors lived here 150 years ago without any of that stuff, and so can we, so long as no one comes by to expropriate it.

So I was wondering (in a few years) if it is a smart move looking for a homestead or similar property in not too cold climate. I live in the North East (New York state) and spend around $500.00 a month on heating the home. Now that I am employed and spouse is working as well, it is not a big deal. Once retired and trying to live on Social Security + 401K savings things could definitely get much tighter!

Aluvaboy

TAG said:

Aluvaboy said:

I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the situation once we run out of fossil fuels. I just read that petroleum reserves will all be exhausted by 2050. So in another 30 years what should be our game plan as far as home heating is concerned. Move to more moderate climate ? Geothermal? etc. Just curious to know.

Marry money ... solves it all.

Too old to do that! Should have thought about it 40 years ago!

Hot_water_fan

So I was wondering (in a few years) if it is a smart move looking for a homestead or similar property in not too cold climate. I live in the North East (New York state) and spend around $500.00 a month on heating the home. Now that I am employed and spouse is working as well, it is not a big deal. Once retired and trying to live on Social Security + 401K savings things could definitely get much tighter!

Ha many retirees have found themselves moving to the Sunbelt!

pecmsg

Aluvaboy said:

I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the situation once we run out of fossil fuels. I just read that petroleum reserves will all be exhausted by 2050. So in another 30 years what should be our game plan as far as home heating is concerned. Move to more moderate climate ? Geothermal? etc. Just curious to know.

In another 30 years ill be 97, I'll have bigger things to worry about!

EBEBRATT-Ed

50 years ago with the oil embargo etc. they said we were running out of oil and gas

Zman

I am not worried, the sustainability folks are just electrifying everything. That will solve the problem, right?

ratio

Jamie Hall said:

As @Hot_water_fan says, we are not going to run out of oil or natural gas -- at least so far as nature is concerned. What will happen is that regulatory and government action will raise the costs enough so that people are forced to turn to other means of staying warm and cooking and moving stuff around and so on. This is a government/regulatory problem, not a geologic one.

There's an unspoken "some" that needs to be prepended to the people that Br. Jamie mentioned above. I'm quite certain that oil & gas will be available—to others. No doubt with very good reasons.

Hot_water_fan

Another scenario is that oil/gas finds itself uneconomic and is then ditched by customers (ask coal about that). That could be a positive for households.

Jamie Hall

Hot_water_fan said:

Another scenario is that oil/gas finds itself uneconomic and is then ditched by customers (ask coal about that). That could be a positive for households.

It will be, if there is a suitably priced alternative. However, energy demand and usage is strikingly inelastic -- that is, variations in price have remarkably little effect on consumption. We are seeing this in Europe and the UK now -- natural gas prices have tripled recently, but consumption hasn't changed much. What has happened is that less wealthy folks are having to decide whether to eat or stay warm -- and this is giving rise to a certain degree of political unrest.

Robert_25

Hot_water_fan said:

Another scenario is that oil/gas finds itself uneconomic and is then ditched by customers (ask coal about that). That could be a positive for households.

We can only hope that happens due to innovation (as opposed to raising cost of oil/gas via tax).

Hot_water_fan

We can only hope that happens due to innovation (as opposed to raising cost of oil/gas via tax).

I’m optimistic - my house went from no electricity and coal to gas to heat pump (100% renewable), and energy costs have decreased while quality and capability has increased. 

It will be, if there is a suitably priced alternative. However, energy demand and usage is strikingly inelastic -- that is, variations in price have remarkably little effect on consumption. We are seeing this in Europe and the UK now -- natural gas prices have tripled recently, but consumption hasn't changed much. What has happened is that less wealthy folks are having to decide whether to eat or stay warm -- and this is giving rise to a certain degree of political unrest.  

Short term, maybe inelastic. Long term, everything is elastic. I’d bet on the cheapest energy source: right now that’s wind and solar. 

delcrossv

Wind and solar is hardly the cheapest (absent subsidies). Certainly not in EROI, and that won't change.
Frankly, with new recovery technologies I doubt we'll be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon. And, when that day finally does arrive, there's enough DU sitting at Savannah River to power the whole US for 750 years.
Between breeding and seawater extraction, there's enough potential fissile to power the planet until the sun goes red giant.

Hot_water_fan

Wind and solar is hardly the cheapest (absent subsidies). Certainly not in EROI.

Talk to ERCOT: the energy only market in Texas which is installing wind, solar and storage at a breakneck pace. They know the real economics ($/kwh). 

delcrossv

They weren't happy a couple of winters ago. And yes, it's subsidized even in Texas.

Hot_water_fan

Yup natural gas laid an egg in 2021. Either way, they’re all subsidized and the market has decided. Wind and solar are being built. 

Jamie Hall

Hot_water_fan said:

Wind and solar is hardly the cheapest (absent subsidies). Certainly not in EROI.

Talk to ERCOT: the energy only market in Texas which is installing wind, solar and storage at a breakneck pace. They know the real economics ($/kwh). 

Really big subsidies involved -- not all of them obvious. And remember this: a subsidy is paid for by someone else, somewhere. In the case of federal subsidies, which are involved, the whole country.

Yes, the Texans (and others all over the place) are installing wind and solar as fast as they can (and destroying crop land while doing it, but who cares?) -- but they're not fools. If someone wants to give them the money, they'll take it.

One thing which people forget is that the government can spend money, but it cannot create value. It can only either create new money, which means all the money has less value than before, or it can take money from one place and spend it in some other place.

And that's the real economics.

Hot_water_fan

Really big subsidies involved -- not all of them obvious. And remember this: a subsidy is paid for by someone else, somewhere. In the case of federal subsidies, which are involved, the whole country.

Agreed! It should be obvious that an incumbent technology will have stacked the deck in their favor (otherwise, why invest in lobbying?). That’s setting aside whether or not you think that emitting carbon for free is a subsidy or not. 

If a farmer wants to produce solar, that’s their decision. They’re in the money making business. 

ChrisJ

EBEBRATT-Ed said:

50 years ago with the oil embargo etc. they said we were running out of oil and gas

In the 1910's-1920s Charles Kettering had looked into using Ethanol and even mixing Ethanol with gasoline to protect against fuel shortages which they feared would happen in the 1940s-50s.

I'm going to assume we got a lot better at drilling, so there never was a shortage.

I'm also going to guess the cost of getting the fuel at one point is going to make it not worth it, rather than actually running out.

JakeCK

Let's talk about the subsidies that oil and gas get.

Me personally? I have a solar array that has already produced 1mwh for the month. And I've only used 600kwh so far in the same time frame. The only gas appliances I have left are the dryer and boiler. And I'm really contemplating replacing my dryer with a ventless hp version. One less hole in the side of my house too.

That leaves my almost 40 year old boiler, and replacing that will be hard nut to crack. I need at least 50k btuh at design to heat the house as is. I have new storms windows on order right now, the front porch and old coal bin is getting rebuilt this spring to stop water infiltration and after that I'm going to be insulating the basement walls, air sealing them and the rim joists. Before I can insulate the walls upstairs I need to rewire and decommission the remaining k&t. Same in the attic. After that I'll have to see what the energy demands will be. Maybe I'll be close enough to heat with a heat pump? 🤷‍♂️

Oh my electric bill for February was $2.33. 

Aluvaboy

JakeCK said:

Let's talk about the subsidies that oil and gas get.

Me personally? I have a solar array that has already produced 1mwh for the month. And I've only used 600kwh so far in the same time frame. The only gas appliances I have left are the dryer and boiler. And I'm really contemplating replacing my dryer with a ventless hp version. One less hole in the side of my house too.

That leaves my almost 40 year old boiler, and replacing that will be hard nut to crack. I need at least 50k btuh at design to heat the house as is. I have new storms windows on order right now, the front porch and old coal bin is getting rebuilt this spring to stop water infiltration and after that I'm going to be insulating the basement walls, air sealing them and the rim joists. Before I can insulate the walls upstairs I need to rewire and decommission the remaining k&t. Same in the attic. After that I'll have to see what the energy demands will be. Maybe I'll be close enough to heat with a heat pump? 🤷‍♂️

Oh my electric bill for February was $2.33. 

I too have solar panels. I have the leased unit from Sun Run. Monthly lease is $93.00. My Utility still charges $20.00 each month towards service charge (irrespective of surplus generation).

Jamie Hall

And, folks, guess who's paying for you solar panels and free electricity? All the other **** who don't have panels or can't have panels or can't afford them. Enjoy.

hot_rod

It is a good solar time of year here in Utah. Cool sunny days, longer periods if sunshine

Until AC season rolls around I generate enough for the lighting and daily use

The SMA app is easy to read and check throughout the day

ChrisJ

hot_rod said:

It is a good solar time of year here in Utah. Cool sunny days, longer periods if sunshine

Until AC season rolls around I generate enough for the lighting and daily use

The SMA app is easy to read and check throughout the day

According to @Jamie Hall I guess I get to say "You're welcome".

Hot_water_fan

And, folks, guess who's paying for you solar panels and free electricity? All the other **** who don't have panels or can't have panels or can't afford them. Enjoy.

The vast majority of US solar is utility scale - it's cheapest even when unsubsidized. We all benefit from solar on the grid.