Time to order oil or wait?

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Dave_61
Dave_61 Posts: 318
in Oil Heating

I really don’t want to start a political debate. I have about 80 gallons of heating oil left in our 275 gallon tank. We usually turn on the heat the second week of October in W Mass. Oil is currently close to an all time high here.
That amount of oil would probably last us close to a month.
Do I wait to fill the tank or just rip off the bandaid and order in the next few weeks? Thanks.

Comments

  • mattmia2
    mattmia2 Posts: 18,231

    flip a coin?

    HVACNUTethicalpaulIntplm.
  • pecmsg
    pecmsg Posts: 7,612

    I’d get it now.
    winters coming

  • bmma
    bmma Posts: 43

    I'd get it now. I don't think the price is likely to come down anytime soon, and is more likely to continue rising.

    pecmsgHVACNUT
  • pecmsg
    pecmsg Posts: 7,612

    if it does come down it’s a small percentage.

  • Jamie Hall
    Jamie Hall Posts: 27,906

    We just filled ours…

    Or you could wait.

    Or you could go down to Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun and try your luck…

    Br. Jamie, osb
    Building superintendent/caretaker, 7200 sq. ft. historic house museum with dependencies in New England
    ChrisJethicalpaulEdTheHeaterManleonz
  • HVACNUT
    HVACNUT Posts: 7,744
    https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/204868/time-to-order-oil-or-wait

    My wife and I were just talking about the same thing. If I knew the answer, I'd be a very wealthy man and be far too important and busy to answer you. But here I am. I'm down to about half a tank (130 gallons in a Roth 275) and thinking of filling it now even though I'd likely make it to December as is. The reason I'll fill up now is BECAUSE I can't see the future. So I'll live in the present. Personally, I don't see prices dropping anytime soon. I think we're in this for as long as Providence allows it.

    ChrisJRobert O'Brien
  • Dave_61
    Dave_61 Posts: 318

    Yeah. I was kind of thinking the same thing. Will order in the next day or two. Thanks everyone.

  • Steve_211
    Steve_211 Posts: 79
    https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/204868/time-to-order-oil-or-wait

    Try making that decision when you have a 1,000 gallon tank to fill. Fortunately, or unfortunately, however way you want to look at it, my boiler had to be replaced. Reluctantly, I went with natural gas. I prefer oil. I always liked hearing that low rumble of the burner firing, knowing that steam heat will soon be making its way to the radiators. But with the per gallon price approaching $6, $6,000 to fill my 1,000 gallon tank is too much. I don't think we'll be seeing oil less than $2.80 per gallon anymore.

  • mattmia2
    mattmia2 Posts: 18,231

    the oil burner my parents had when i was a kid was pretty loud. it would scare me if i was next to it when it turned on. it was more of a mid frequency droning noise, a lot of it was probably the oil pump and the ignition.

  • Steamhead
    Steamhead Posts: 18,974
    https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/comment/1904573#Comment_1904573

    I put a Carlin EZ-Gas burner in my boiler to convert it. I can still hear the heat come on.

    Co-Founder, All Steamed Up, Inc.

    Semi-retired

    Baltimore, MD, USA

  • Jamie Hall
    Jamie Hall Posts: 27,906

    Cedric's predecessor — an immense H. B. Smith affair — had a Quiet May burner. Quiet? Yeah, right. But I have to admit that I don't mind hearing the boiler — that way I know it's running!

    Br. Jamie, osb
    Building superintendent/caretaker, 7200 sq. ft. historic house museum with dependencies in New England
    kcoppIntplm.
  • Don_175
    Don_175 Posts: 179

    Yeah. Ours is pretty quiet. Beckett. I hear it in the family room which is above the boiler. But in the rest of the house, you don’t really hear it.

  • EdTheHeaterMan
    EdTheHeaterMan Posts: 12,857

    That was always a problem in the 1980s and 1990s when I would take out an old coal conversion or replace a Quiet Heat, Quiet May, or any of those other non-retention burners. The flame-retention burner often had a somewhat louder flame noise.

    That was usually the first service call when October rolled around and the burner started for the first time on its own. I would come out and find nothing wrong.

    I would then sit at the kitchen table and explain that the “different” (don't say louder) noise was the sound of a more efficient flame using less fuel to give them the same amount of heat. During the conversation, I would take note of the refrigerator turning on and ask the customer, “Did you hear that?”

    Of course, they didn’t hear anything, and I would tell them, “The refrigerator compressor just started.”

    We would continue the conversation about how they would get used to the burner noise, just like they didn’t even notice the refrigerator anymore. A little later, the compressor would shut off and I would say, “The refrigerator just stopped.”

    Of course, they didn’t notice that either.

    I would then tell them, “While you are getting used to that new oil-heat noise, it will remind you that you are saving fuel with the more efficient burner. I think you will like that noise when you see how long that tank of oil lasts.”

    It is all in the presentation.

    Edward Young Retired

    After you make that expensive repair and you still have the same problem, What will you check next?

    bburdleonzIntplm.
  • HVACNUT
    HVACNUT Posts: 7,744

    I used to get complaints switching from a stack relay (interrupted ignition) to cad cell (intermittent ignition) that the 10K volt transformer was interfering with the TV signal.

  • kcopp
    kcopp Posts: 4,727

    My thought is that w/ the mid term elections coming up soon the price will drop a bit just before then go back up after…. Seems to happen every time.

    Don_175Intplm.HomerJSmith
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Posts: 2,833
    edited September 28

    I would ask the Oracle of Delphi .

    Crack spread is changing. Better to have it now than wait and have the price go up or worse not have it available at all or you could just invest in a lot of wool sweaters and buy some extra pups for those '3 dog nights'.

    I spend a lot of time on economics and the political situation. The best time to buy was last year and you can take that advice to the bank.

  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Posts: 2,833
    edited September 28

    Look, be serious, Homer. OK, you have to be knowledgeable about the depreciation of the currency which leads to higher prices, shortages of raw oil because of the wars, reduced refinery capacity because of the wars and the closure of refineries in the late great state of California to name a few.

    I only like to gamble when the odds are in my favor.

    Someone told me long ago, there's a calm before the storm…wait, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Posts: 2,833
    edited September 28

    When I was just a little boy I asked my mother what will it be, will oil prices be up or will they be down, Here's what she said to me, Que Sera, Sera what ever will be will be, the futures not ours to see Que Sera, Sera…

  • HVACNUT
    HVACNUT Posts: 7,744

    IDK what the ticker says but I just paid $5.439 per gallon for 150 gallons on 09/26/26. With COD, the more you get, the cheaper it is. 150 filled my 275, so my hedge is I'll save gallons ($$) with my new boiler and oil prices will continue to increase, thereby recouping the pennies lost on a small 150 delivery. Back up the Brinks truck.

    Robert O'Brien
  • CLamb
    CLamb Posts: 352

    It all depends on what happens in the Middle East which even the parties involved don't really know. You could look at the futures market to see what the big boys are guessing. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LO*0/futures-prices?timeFrame=current&viewName=main

  • jimna01
    jimna01 Posts: 49

    with the disruption and damage to oil distribution in the Middle East some of which will take some time. To repair I don’t see oil prices going much of anywhere soon. Grin and bear it I guess. Yes last week it was 6.09 a gallon

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