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Corona Virus - How will this effect our trade?

13

Comments

  • Sal Santamaura
    Sal Santamaura Member Posts: 529
    OK, since the question of how this pandemic will affect the heating trade is a subset of how it will affect everyone, pay attention to the guest in this interview that aired on Thursday:

    https://youtu.be/e3gCbkeARbY
    mikeg2015
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    Fred said:

    I have family in Italy. My niece and Brother-In-Law both have the virus. That was as of this past Wednesday. I will talk to them today and see if others have contracted it. Italy is pretty much on total lockdown. If people are out on the street and they are not going to the doctor, hospital or to get essential food supplies, they can be fined up to $300.00 and up to 3 months in jail. It is a mess over there.

    My uncle said pharmacy,hospitals, and groceries are all that is open. Oh and the government cigarette stores🙄

    To get groceries you are greeted with a mask, and gloves. Only a few at a time in the store.

    Until April 16th pending.
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    Gordy said:

    Oh and the government cigarette stores🙄

    Ironically, smoking is one of the risk factors for dying from this virus.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    I'd like to correct something I said in my previous post. I said the virus could remain viable on surfaces for about 24 hours, but, based on the research discussed in this article, it can last significantly longer on some surfaces. For example, it can last up to three days on steel. Please see the article for more details. It's well worth reading.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • mikeg2015
    mikeg2015 Member Posts: 1,194
    Excellent video. That all makes sense.

    I’m the US. The advantages we have is excess hospital capacity in some areas.

    A large national guard and military if needed.

    And large capacity of labs that can process tests if needed. If mobilized/allocated.

    But I feel like we lack a clear plan and we are mostly reactive and more concerned about optics than actually winning a war on this virus.
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    Our hospital capacity is actually worse than Italy's. They have about 3.2 beds per thousand, we have about 2.8. Most intensive care & respiritory care beds are in use at any given time. Hospitals have been under intense pressure to reduce "excess" capacity.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546

    Gordy said:

    Oh and the government cigarette stores🙄

    Ironically, smoking is one of the risk factors for dying from this virus.
    Pneumonia is the factor which takes lives. Anything that creates a weak respiratory system is a factor.

    Hap_HazzardCanuckerHomerJSmith
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    Gordy said:

    Pneumonia is the factor which takes lives. Anything that creates a weak respiratory system is a factor.

    Plus, cigarettes have the added benefit of putting something in your mouth while touching it with your hands, so it adds to the risk of infection and lethality.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    And, on top of what @Hap_Hazzard said, our labs, hospitals and other health facilities do not have the supplies, masks, gloves, respirators, etc. needed to fight this virus. Individuals have hoarded the available supplies and according to our Governor, in a daily update today, most of those supplies are manufactured in China (ground zero) and the US no longer has the capacity to meet the demand. He says once we get past this pandemic, the US has to have a serious discussion about ensuring we have production capabilities to meet future health crisis.

    On another note, hospitals, mostly now privatized have been under pressure to reduce beds and staff in order to increase profits not to become more efficient. Multiple Health Networks build to compete with other networks and that created the excess capacity. We just lost a 300 bed hospital near my home due to what they said was "excess capacity" and yet that health network just completed construction of three other hospitals with a total of 1000 additional beds, so they could compete in other sections of the region (all within a 10 mile radius of the one they tore down).
    Hap_Hazzard
  • hot_rod
    hot_rod Member Posts: 22,024
    Blows my mind that this is the best we can do! These stats are questionable as multiple swabs are used on one person sometimes.

    Hell, turn all the Starbucks drive- thrus into testing sites, 6 of those in my population 120,000 city.

    The private sector needs to take over this debacle.
    Bob "hot rod" Rohr
    trainer for Caleffi NA
    Living the hydronic dream
    Gordy
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    How can anyone turn a profit by preparing for and fighting an epidemic?
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    If you had a 1000 people calling you their heat was out, and it’s -20 what happens?
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    edited March 2020
    hot_rod said:



    Hell, turn all the Starbucks drive- thrus into testing sites, 6 of those in my population 120,000 city.

    The private sector needs to take over this debacle.


    Funny. The Portillo here the drive through is packed. Inside empty..........
    Fred said:

    And, on top of what @Hap_Hazzard said, our labs, hospitals and other health facilities do not have the supplies, masks, gloves, respirators, etc. needed to fight this virus. Individuals have hoarded the available supplies and according to our Governor, in a daily update today, most of those supplies are manufactured in China (ground zero) and the US no longer has the capacity to meet the demand. He says once we get past this pandemic, the US has to have a serious discussion about ensuring we have production capabilities to meet future health crisis.

    On another note, hospitals, mostly now privatized have been under pressure to reduce beds and staff in order to increase profits not to become more efficient. Multiple Health Networks build to compete with other networks and that created the excess capacity. We just lost a 300 bed hospital near my home due to what they said was "excess capacity" and yet that health network just completed construction of three other hospitals with a total of 1000 additional beds, so they could compete in other sections of the region (all within a 10 mile radius of the one they tore down).

    Health care is just another business model. Profit is the goal. Idle beds are not money makers. Move somewhere else where the probability of being at capacity is higher, or decrease capacity to suit location.
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    edited March 2020
    My company went into "essential personnel only" mode until the end of March. Also, only essential contractor services allowed and only in a very restricted foot print. One contractor wondered if his residential customers will not want his crew in their homes after I waved him off. We are losing money as is our contractors.

    I work with two groups of people as this was unfolding. The first group thought this will be bad ,are anxious.

    The second group said this is over hyped and did nothing. Now, they are stunned- And Suddenly, we are all without toilet paper.

    The same can be said of this country. Maybe the world.

    ChrisJHap_HazzardCanucker
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    edited March 2020
    @Gordy said: Health care is just another business model. Profit is the goal. Idle beds are not money makers. Move somewhere else where the probability of being at capacity is higher, or decrease capacity to suit location.
    That is true but, unlike most businesses, this hospital refused to sell the hospital to other interested parties, including the Cleveland Clinic, The Cleveland Clinic mind you, because they did not want the competition in the market they chose to abandon. They are just finishing tearing down a multi-million dollar complex, leaving 13 vacant acres of land that they say they will not sell to anyone whose intent is to build a health facility. That's not your typical business decision or an acknowledgement that business viability was in question. Typically you can decide what's right for your business but you rarely get to decide what's right for your competition and the wellbeing of a city. There is a pending federal investigation into this matter and a request that their tax exemption be withdrawn. If they want to operate as any other business, let them pay federal taxes like others do. If they want to monopolize a segment of the market, let the courts decide the legality of that decision.
  • If you want to know where we will be in a week or two, look at Europe.
    8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour

    Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542

    If you want to know where we will be in a week or two, look at Europe.

    Italy says they expect the virus to peak, there, in the next week to 10 days. My sister, who is a Doctor, there says the hospitals are on the verge of collapse. They simply can not sustain the load much longer.
    Hap_HazzardHomerJSmith
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    Fred said:

    Italy says they expect the virus to peak, there, in the next week to 10 days. My sister, who is a Doctor, there says the hospitals are on the verge of collapse. They simply can not sustain the load much longer.

    Italy is probably about the most accurate preview of what we'll be going through in a week to ten days unless something changes. So far we haven't done anything they haven't done, but we have even less capacity to deal with it. Scary.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
    SlamDunk
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    edited March 2020
    37% of Italy’s population is over 55 verses 28% in the U.S. that’s a huge factor. Along with population density. Italy is 209 per square km. US is 95 square mile. A square mile equals 2.59 square km. 541 people per square mile.. Let that sink in....
    SlamDunkAlan (California Radiant) ForbesGroundUp
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    edited March 2020
    Population density of the east coast USA is 1000/sq mi with a population of 118 million. The only tool we have to combat this is to shelter in place to stop the spread and hope it dies out.
  • Gordy
    Gordy Member Posts: 9,546
    edited March 2020
    In my last post, I’m speaking of the two countries in general. Those are very much factors.

    Obviously in certain “areas” there is a difference in density. However those denser areas in Italy are much closer together. Hence the west coast, and east coast here.
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    @Hap_Hazzard , Hap, a minor correction, I think you said that the virus was not airborne, however if you inhale droplets originating from an infectious person (sneeze etc) you can become infected.
    As noted earlier, my favorite wife was a clinical microbiologist, she is trying to stay current with the developments.
    One thing to note is that people can be symptom free and be infectious.
    She feels that young (20 yr olds) may just get minor symptoms, a sore throat or mild cough, and be infectious without ever needing medical intervention.
    Groc shopping yesterday, people are hoarding frozen veggies, there were none in the stores here.
    Be careful, it is going to get quite nasty.
    MikeL_2Hap_Hazzard
  • nibs
    nibs Member Posts: 511
    PS: Re hoarding, forgot to mention, there is a sect in Pakistan (where cows are holey) that believes that drinking cow urine will cure or ward off the COVID virus.
    People must be hoarding it, because we could find none on the shelves of the grocery stores yesterday.
    Hap_HazzardAlan (California Radiant) Forbesicy78
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    Are you business owners altering your business plans? Or are you Fortunate to be in the slow season Between heating and cooling? Or is it business as usual?
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    nibs said:

    @Hap_Hazzard , Hap, a minor correction, I think you said that the virus was not airborne, however if you inhale droplets originating from an infectious person (sneeze etc) you can become infected.

    Yes, if someone who is infected coughs or sneezes in your direction at close range, you're going to get infected, no doubt, because the droplets containing the virus can stay airborne for a short time, but that's not the same as an airborne virus that can survive in a dry state and float around like dust.

    An infected person will also emit droplets while speaking, but the recommendation to maintain a distance of six feet while carrying on a conversation is intended to prevent infection via this route.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    nibs said:

    PS: Re hoarding, forgot to mention, there is a sect in Pakistan (where cows are holey) that believes that drinking cow urine will cure or ward off the COVID virus.
    People must be hoarding it, because we could find none on the shelves of the grocery stores yesterday.

    Don't let that get around, or before you know it unscrupulous people will start selling their own urine and passing it off as cow urine. :D
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • Crapulent
    Crapulent Member Posts: 1
    A right mindset should be cautious but not anxious, just follow the WHO guidelines and you should be safe.
    ..
  • Alan (California Radiant) Forbes
    Alan (California Radiant) Forbes Member Posts: 3,979
    edited March 2020
    SlamDunk said:

    Are you business owners altering your business plans? Or are you Fortunate to be in the slow season Between heating and cooling? Or is it business as usual?

    I went out to a job yesterday to troubleshoot a Takagi (radiant and DHW) that we installed 17 years ago. It wouldn't fire and I cleaned the filter, checked the over-temperature fuse, made sure the gas valve was opening and had the utility company come out to check their regulator and it still wouldn't fire. I told the owner that considering the age of the machine, it would be best to replace it, but I couldn't do it. Ordinarily, I would do the work, but they had two young, school-age kids and I thought it prudent to stay away.

    It's my grandson's third birthday today and my kids are throwing a party for him. It's raining here now and we would be celebrating indoors with lots of children running around. My wife and I chose to stay home. : (
    8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour

    Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab
  • hot_rod
    hot_rod Member Posts: 22,024
    limiting contact that spreads the virus seems like a very doable concept for all of us.

    Neil deGrasse Tyson sums it up as
    Personal, Political, or Objective truth.
    I'm betting on the scientists, researchers and doctors advice to best deal with this.
    Bob "hot rod" Rohr
    trainer for Caleffi NA
    Living the hydronic dream
    Hap_Hazzard
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,426
    I stand by my previous posts.

    I will tell you what I am doing.

    I breath into my lungs a herbal breathing vapours called "Inspirol" twice a day that I get from Baar.com. It strengthens the lungs and may actually lessen inflammation, keep the virus from locking onto the AC2 receptors, and hopefully kill the virus. I have increased my intake of Vit D3 to 15000 IU's a day, have increased the intake of Selenium and Omega 3 fatty acids, Curcumin C3 complex (Turmeric), which all reduce the inflammation in the lungs which lead to Edema and pneumonia. I have stopped using "Super Beets" as it increases Nitric Oxide which can cause a problem in the lung tissue.

    I also do the routine vigorous hand washing and keep my social distancing. I'm not 2 days older than Moses, but we had the same kindergarten teacher, so I'm not taking chances.

    Service calls could be problematic, so have your customers bring their boilers to your shop.

    "Don't be scared, be prepared."
    Hap_HazzardSTEVEusaPA
  • mikeg2015
    mikeg2015 Member Posts: 1,194

    Our hospital capacity is actually worse than Italy's. They have about 3.2 beds per thousand, we have about 2.8. Most intensive care & respiritory care beds are in use at any given time. Hospitals have been under intense pressure to reduce "excess" capacity.

    Due ot underfunded Medicare system, hundreds of local hospitals have closed or partially closed as well.

    With “more advanced” medicine most procedures are outpatient. So bed numbers are much lower.

    To be fair, most of these other countries, like Japan, have higher elderly populations as well.

    But I also think since they have been though Swine Flu and SARS they’ve kept reserve capacity higher.

  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    This graphic is pretty sobering. It shows the distribution of cases in S. Korea vs Italy by age group.

    Why the difference? It's all about testing. "Cases" are defined as people who have been clinically diagnosed or who have tested positive. The Koreans are testing everybody. The Italians have been testing only people with symptoms, so they have almost completely missed the vast majority of infected individuals: people under 50 who are asymptomatic. These people don't know they're infected, so they've been walking around infecting people they interact with!

    How does this compare to the US? We've only tested about 1,500 people so far. Most of our 3,000+ confirmed cases haven't been tested; they've been diagnosed by their exhibiting symptoms and having a finding of "ground glass" opacities in their lungs on CT scans. The testing guidelines currently only include individuals who are exhibiting symptoms and who have been in contact with people who have tested positive or been clinically diagnosed. In other words, we're only testing a tiny subset of the people Italy has been testing.

    So how many asymptomatic carriers do think there might be here in the US?
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
    Alan (California Radiant) Forbes
  • hot_rod
    hot_rod Member Posts: 22,024
    DFW this weekend processing returning International travelers.

    What could go wrong with this approach!!
    Bob "hot rod" Rohr
    trainer for Caleffi NA
    Living the hydronic dream
    Hap_Hazzard
  • Fred
    Fred Member Posts: 8,542
    Here in Ohio, The governor has ordered all bars and restaurants to close until further notice, effective at 9:00PM tonight. Carry-outs can stay open.
    He has ordered all schools closed for three weeks and is considering closing them for the remainder of this school year. No gatherings or events greater than 100 people.
    I just got back from the grocery store to get something for dinner. Shelves are bare, especially paper products, bread, milk, bottled water. People are over reacting. While we do have a few cases in Ohio, none confirmed in our county yet.
  • Hap_Hazzard
    Hap_Hazzard Member Posts: 2,846
    A lot of milk's gonna go bad in people's refrigerators.
    Just another DIYer | King of Prussia, PA
    1983(?) Peerless G-561-W-S | 3" drop header, CG400-1090, VXT-24
  • HomerJSmith
    HomerJSmith Member Posts: 2,426
    edited March 2020
    You can freeze milk which I routinely do and thaw it out on the counter or for days in the refrigerator. Works just fine.

    If you don't know what's happening in Italy and the severe problems they are having, You are severely under informed. Italy is about 3-4 weeks ahead of the USA in this non-pandemic thing. Oh, wait, the WHO folks have just labeled it a PANDEMIC. Boy, were they slow in coming to the party.

    Remember, ignorance has consequences, I have been told.
    De Nile is more than just a river in Egypt.
    STEVEusaPA
  • GroundUp
    GroundUp Member Posts: 1,889
    I've got plenty of toilet paper and a freezer full of food. We stay clean and are mindful of personal space, zero concern whatsoever for me or mine. In 2 weeks this will be forgotten about and we'll be back on with business as usual. Y'all can choose to be scared, I choose to be logical. If I'm wrong, I guess that'll be my problem but at this point I'm tired of hearing about this media fueled fake epidemic. Yes, it's an unfortunate ordeal and people are dying. More people die from suicide every day than have perished from this virus in total- being cautious and being scared are very different things.
    SlamDunkSuperTech
  • Steamhead
    Steamhead Member Posts: 16,796
    hot_rod said:

    DFW this weekend processing returning International travelers.

    What could go wrong with this approach!!

    Same at O'Hare. You can't fix stupid...............
    All Steamed Up, Inc.
    Towson, MD, USA
    Steam, Vapor & Hot-Water Heating Specialists
    Oil & Gas Burner Service
    Consulting
  • SlamDunk
    SlamDunk Member Posts: 1,570
    edited March 2020
    GroundUp said:

    I've got plenty of toilet paper and a freezer full of food. We stay clean and are mindful of personal space, zero concern whatsoever for me or mine. In 2 weeks this will be forgotten about and we'll be back on with business as usual. Y'all can choose to be scared, I choose to be logical. If I'm wrong, I guess that'll be my problem but at this point I'm tired of hearing about this media fueled fake epidemic. Yes, it's an unfortunate ordeal and people are dying. More people die from suicide every day than have perishedy from this virus in total- being cautious and being scared are very different things.

    If you are wrong, and Have been exposed, it will be the problem of everyone you shared the love with.

    Aaaaaandd, this is why most contrators are locked out of three quarters of the businesses in my area.

    I am a very good mechanic but I cant fix..............



  • GroundUp said:

    I've got plenty of toilet paper and a freezer full of food. We stay clean and are mindful of personal space, zero concern whatsoever for me or mine. In 2 weeks this will be forgotten about and we'll be back on with business as usual. Y'all can choose to be scared, I choose to be logical. If I'm wrong, I guess that'll be my problem but at this point I'm tired of hearing about this media fueled fake epidemic. Yes, it's an unfortunate ordeal and people are dying. More people die from suicide every day than have perished from this virus in total- being cautious and being scared are very different things.

    I'll check in with you on the 29th.
    8.33 lbs./gal. x 60 min./hr. x 20°ΔT = 10,000 BTU's/hour

    Two btu per sq ft for degree difference for a slab
    GroundUpSlamDunk