HVAC in New Construction in 2024

HeatingHelp.com

This article from the National Association of Home Builders shows the types of heating systems installed in newly constructed single-family homes in 2024, as well as their primary fuel sources.

EBEBRATT-Ed

54% of new homes the primary fuel is electric, resistance or heat pumps.

All I can is get ready for brown outs as the electrical grid isn't going to hack this.

Seems steam and oil are not popular LOL

Steamhead

They install whatever is cheapest, since they don't have to live with the results.

Jamie Hall

The only problem with studies like that — and it's a sort of minor irritation — is that they are, geographically, so coarse. It's inevitable — going finer grained would be very difficult. But it does tend to bias — inevitably, no criticism — towards suburban type areas, and overlook relatively sparsely populated areas (such as where I live!) where LP is wildly expensive, electricity is eye-watering, and so… more oil.

As to system type the emphasis nowadays is on having air conditioning available, so it is quite natural that correspondingly heat pumps will be popular, and forced air is cheap.

Kaos

I'm not surprized. I have come to the same conclustion about a decade ago. In any place where you need cooling, unless you are in a place with unreliable power, cold climate heat pump makes financial sense both for install and operating cost.

@EBEBRATT-Ed I'm in pretty cold area with muggy summers, around me grid load is the highest during the summer by a fair margin still. Wintertime morning TOU electricity prices are pretty high, so turning up the thermostat before the morning peak makes a lot of sense.

TheUpNorthState88

If I was building a new home, I would absolutely be in the small minority of people installing forced hot water heating through modern radiators (or rescued ones) because I know how much better heating that is in my opinion. I hate forced air heating.

I would still install ductwork for central air. Take me back to the days when radiator heat and the concept of air conditioning was sold as a matching pair.

TAG

The article lists a drop in "forced air" from 71% to 50%. This line is confusing — it seems they may` be splitting heat pumps out of the mix even though they are "forced air". No way FA has dropped that much .. even with mini - splits around.

In the mid-atlantic top heat pumps were already less expensive to run vs propane and oil — this may change now that electric rates have jumped. In our PA location we don't have natural gas so it's propane, electric or duel fuel for most new installs. NJ has natural gas but the state has been on a heat pump craze for the past 10 years — I'm not sure what is going to happen this winter now that our KW rate went from .20 to .30. People are going to have a shock. Our NG rates made is cheaper vs top heat pump.

Most of my projects have been rehabs and many are odd buildings that benefit from ether radiant or some type of hot water. With all new construction you can now get the heat load down so low in my area that radiant makes no sense. Fully VS forced air is quiet and comfortable.

GGross

https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/comment/1867240#Comment_1867240

In the second section from top of the article they show that they are differentiating "forced air systems" and "air/ground source " by specifically saying "forced air systems without a heat pump" It's definitely not very clear and even as I'm re-reading it and typing it I'm not 100% sure thats the way its supposed to be read lol. I'm pretty sure it is though because then almost immediately after defining the two systems thats when the stats for systems with "air or ground source heat pump as the primary means of providing heat" and "forced air systems" still seems a bit weird they wouldn't just specify "forced air systems where a heat pump is NOT the primary source of heat" or "forced air systems where gas/oil/solid fuel is the primary source of heat"

This is also made even more confusing as that whole first section is not supposed to be about the fuel source at all, just the heating system, the section that follows is the part that covers fuel type. SO yeah it really makes no sense why they would differentiate the 2 fuel types in the section devoted to heating system type, and also kind of cuts out a bunch of relevant info like how many duct free split systems? how many water/steam systems? how many fully ducted systems? The words Water Steam and hydronic do not even appear in the article… I need someone else to take the raw data and do a more thorough write up lol

Roger

There have been many discussions on heat pumps and furnaces/boilers, so I thought I would put out some of the points that seem to keep recurring.

Heat Pumps in Cold Climates: Why Hybrid Systems Make More Sense: Heat pumps are a remarkable technology, but in cold climates with high electricity rates, they can be expensive to install, replace, and run. Fortunately, hybrid systems with a boiler or furnace offer a smarter, more flexible solution.

Bosch recommends mini splits with boilers, not just heat pumps alone.  In a training session two weeks ago, they also stated that heat pumps in New England are not a good application because the electric rates are so high.

NREL study shows a seasonal COP of 2.1 (210% annual efficiency) - that's almost $6/gal oil equivalent. Since the COP drops further with lower temperatures, electric bills increase rapidly. This May 2023 NREL Field Validation of Air-Source Heat Pumps for Cold Climates study shows the wide disparity between manufacturers ratings and field performance, with an average seasonal efficiency (COP) of 2.1. On a unit of energy basis, $0.30/kWh is the equivalent of $12.18 per gallon of oil and $8.79 per therm of natural gas. New York residential electric rates increased 50% from 2020 to 2024, and 4% in the prior 7 years…Northeast states are leading that trend and forecast to increase further.

Studies show 60% to 80% of people turn off their heat pump below 35°F, often due to high electric bills and the air the blow is colder than furnaces (multiple studies p 18-19). That’s often the right choice economically and environmentally because furnaces and boilers will cost less to operate and they use less source energy compared to electricity generated with natural gas (EPA Clean Air Markets Program Data CAMPD 40% power plant efficiency in New England less 8% transmission and distribution losses); and they have lower carbon intensity (GREET 2022 1.06% natural gas fugitive emissions means natural gas 20 year lifecycle has a 36% higher carbon intensity than fuel oil). Even more so when temperatures drop below freezing.

Imagine a power plant as a hungry pizza eater. You feed it 8 slices of natural gas, but it gobbles up 5 slices just to generate and deliver electricity to your home. That leaves only 3 slices of usable energy. A 210% efficient heat pump can stretch those 3 slices into 6 slices of heat. But if you use a boiler that's 87% efficient, it skips the power plant altogether and turns 7 out of 8 slices directly into heat, more warmth, less waste.

Furnaces and boilers deliver warmer, more comfortable heat (cold climate technical data p A230). For comparison, the air leaving mini split heat pump heat at 91°F can feel like cold air blowing at 73°F just a few feet away. A better air sealed and weatherized house with high efficiency windows and doors can improve winter heat pump comfort.

Electrification will require that the residential grid grow 4X. Cold climate heat pumps consume close to 2X as much electricity as a typical home, and EVs use the equivalent of another home's worth of electricity. In the near term, that means if just 10% of cold climate homes fully "electrify", the residential grid will need to provide almost 30% more electricity (and that does not include overall grid load impacts from AI impacts). And the cost of utility scale battery back up is astronomical, they last about 10 years and cost about $300 to $500 per kWh of storage - that's just $0.30 of electricity.

Heat pumps aren’t just expensive to run, they’re expensive to install and replace. In Rhode Island, representatives indicated that converting low-income homes to heat pumps cost the state $20,000–$25,000 per home this year. Over time, that’s $75,000+, compared to a single boiler that lasts decades.

Hybrid systems make sense, especially in a volatile energy future. It’s not all-or-nothing as hybrid systems let you choose the best tool for the job, season by season. Choosing to heat with a heat pump or a boiler/furnace could be for personal comfort, operating cost, emissions, source energy consumption, and more.

Roger

Steamhead

https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/comment/1867318#Comment_1867318

This.

Hot_water_fan

Eh I’ll save with my heat pumps vs. gas but thanks anyway.

Kaos

@Roger If you look at the NREL report the Seasonal average efficiency of the heat pumps was closer to 3 (some outliers there though):

The issue is most (all?) units ran the backup heater during defrost instead of doing fan off. This significantly increases the energy use without improving comfort. On most units, this can be programmed.

With properly sized and set up unit, a seasonal average of 3 is not an issue.

$0.3 electricity with 3 COP heat pump is equivalent to $3.1/gal oil in 75% boiler or $2.5/therm natural gas. Around me gas connection fees also add up to about 1 month of free winter time heating cost so heat pump is cheaper than gas.

Older gen heat pumps did blow cold air when temperature dropped, modern EVI heat pumps provide 100F+ air even down to 0F.

Roger

The average seasonal COP is 2.1, @Kaos referenced the COP without other loads, such as backup heat and defrost cycles - just look a few lines below what was shown in that post.. The top rated heat pump with EVI data is also referenced, 91° F leaving the head, and 73° F about 6 feet away. The Department of Energy Cold Climate heat Pump Challenge also notes that the temperature coming out of the head of next generation, top performing heat pumps, rarely exceeds 100° F at any time and is frequently near 80°F. There are many cold climate reports that show field performance in the range of 20% to 30% below manufacturers ratings. Seasonal performance in all is substantially below a COP of 3.0; see the multiple study link I provided prior.

Kaos

That table is full system COP including outdoor and indoor unit loads. A bad install can definitely hurt efficiency, but that is the case with any setup regardless of furnace/boiler/heat pump.

Anything duel fuel only makes sense if you already have the equipment. When you do the math on cost, the savings are in the order tens of dollars per year, so ROI of installing any extra equipment is never.

Hot_water_fan

@Kaos agreed. For an article about NEW construction, dual fuel is hard to justify unless it’s gas. It leans towards heat pump + low efficiency furnaces if any, which I don’t think is the worst combo.

Existing, sure!

Roger

The table you referenced is not seasonal efficiency. Cold climate hybrid savings are in the range of $500 to $1000 per year for a typical house for the fuel prices noted. Even greater if it’s a natural gas boiler or furnace.

Kaos

https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/comment/1867359#Comment_1867359

Yes it is, that is total seasonal COP when the heat pump was running:

It also doesn't make sense that they would only look at non EVI units and none were big enough to handle 100% design load. Strange. It also makes the energy use higher as it relies on aux heat too much. Undersized also means a lot more time in defrost which further drops COP.

Please show me the calculation of $1000 hybrid fuel use savings. Short of firing a wood boiler on self harvested wood, I don't see that.

For me, since my operating costs have gone down since switching to heat pump, adding in a fuel burner would only add cost.

Hot_water_fan

Please show me the calculation of $1000 hybrid fuel energy savings. Short of firing a wood boiler on self harvested wood, I don't see that.

I think it’s completely possible with 1. Expensive electric 2. Cheap gas 3. Large heat loss and 4. Cold climate.

But my entire heating needs are about $800, so no use for me.

Roger

The DOE Field Validation Report does have the seasonal COP I mentioned, it’s just not what @Kaos referenced. Take the temperature/COP data points and hourly temperatures to estimate operating energy consumption and costs. Here is the quick analysis, without going into hourly impacts which is more revealing:

Design Load Assumption: You could use any reasonable load, but for this analysis, let’s assume a design day load of 35,000 BTU/hr. This represents approximately 1% of annual fuel consumption on a design day, yielding a total of 84 MMBTU/year.

Annual Savings: $1,080 with a high efficiency oil boiler vs cold climate heat pump. Here’s the backup: 696 gal oil at 87% efficiency and 11,723 kWh at 2.1 COP. $3,516 electric bill at $0.30/kWh and $2,436 with oil heat at $3.50/gal.

Source Energy: Oil 96.4 MMBTU/year and Heat Pump 111.1 MMBTU/year. Here’s the backup: Natural gas power plant efficiency 39.2% for Massachusetts in 2024 heating season (CAMPD) with 8% transmission and distribution losses (net efficiency of about 36%).

Carbon Intensity/Emissions: Oil with 11% biodiesel blend is 6.6 tons and Heat Pump is 7.5 tons. Here’s the backup: Oil 163 lb/MMBTU biodiesel content 75% reduction in CI with 11% blend average in 2023 (net 149.5 lb/MMBTU) and Natural Gas for the power plant at 117 lb/MMBTU plus 1.06% fugitive losses for a net of 135 lb/MMBTU with 20-year GWP methane.

Kaos

@Hot_water_fan If gas was that much cheaper, you would not install a heat pump as a hybrid system would make no sense as gas would always be cheaper.

Hot_water_fan

eh if the heat pump is “free” (since AC was already happening) and you suspect gas to be volatile, dual fuel would make sense even if the operating costs are similar.

mattmich

@Roger wrote
» Bosch recommends mini splits with boilers, not just heat pumps alone. 

That makes a lot of sense to me.

And in an old house, with an existing hot-water or steam heating system, going to mini splits for air conditioning and for milder days like we're having now (60s with 30s at night), that's the way to go. Anyway it's my plan.

If I were building new, I'd install radiant floor heat + mini splits, and choose the energy source to heat the water based on efficiency and price. I'd miss the utility of hot radiators but I'd get over it.

cheers -m

Hot_water_fan

They install whatever is cheapest, since they don't have to live with the results

@Steamhead let's not blame the customer here. Bad look.

mattmich

@Hot_water_fan

He wasn't blaming the customer, he was blaming the builder.
I also believe he is correct.

Hot_water_fan

1. The builder is a customer.
   
2. The builders build what end customers want. If they wanted steam, they’d build steam.

mattmich

I don't know enough to disagree. I do know that price pressure is a serious concern when building a development. I'm not interested in ever buying new construction, but if I were going that route, I'd want a serious say in what goes in it.

A friend of mine bought a house for a little over $300k after the mortgage crisis, in 2013. It's now worth not much less than 600, which around here is getting up there. Mid-Michigan is still somewhat affordable. He has copper plumbing throughout, two water heaters, and the house seems well constructed and insulated, with outside walls built with 2x6s. It's an affluent neighborhood.

But the vinyl windows are not something I'd want in my house. My retrofitted Andersen's are far better, and I'd gladly pay more to have them. But the builder had his plan for where the money made sense for him, and where it didn't.

If you're a builder, you can't go upscale everywhere, and not everyone will appreciate — or be able to buy — amenities that are extra, even if they save money in the long run. So that's how I see the "electric heat pumps everywhere" trend. The step up in price for a hybrid system, which will pay for itself in colder climates, is quite the risk for the builder.

In Europe, they just mandate all that stuff, and pretty soon houses are a luxury good. It's a hard circle to square.

Hot_water_fan

Yeah. What we value here isn’t what the masses want and that certainly includes hydronics. Shaming a customer for not having our niche interests is bad business. I think dual fuel for new builds can still be common, but it’s going to be dual fuel with a furnace.

Matt_67

My dad (he’s in the trade) replaced his furnace and a/c last year and went with the latest and greatest like he always does. Modulating communicating natural gas Trane furnace with a XV20i heat pump. Our electric rate is $0.11/kwh and natural gas is $.88 /therm. I went to calculate the balance point and there isn’t one, but I will say the system is extremely comfortable and quiet. And who knows what energy prices will be tomorrow.

Roger

@Matt_67 , your dad is living in a different world than the Northeast or California, which have almost 3X higher energy costs. In July this year, prices hit around $2.50/therm in New England for natural gas. His $0.88/therm is equivalent of $0.03 per kilowatt hour, there’s no way a heat pump can be competitive with a furnace at those prices.

Kaos

@Roger

" $1,080 with a high efficiency oil boiler vs cold climate heat pump. Here’s the backup: 696 gal oil at 87% efficiency and 11,723 kWh at 2.1 COP. $3,516 electric bill at $0.30/kWh and $2,436 with oil heat at $3.50/gal."

I haven't seen any recent studies on non-condensing units, but last I saw of in field monitoring of these, the real world efficiency was between 50% to 75%. Add in that most are 3x oversized and tend to short cycle, the efficiency drops even more. Better controls does help a bit but you are still not hitting nameplate.

Most hydronic systems also have about 3 pumps in the system. Running those is not free. Let optimistically say we use 200W for pumps and boiler for 5 months, that adds 720kWh or ~$200 to heating cost.

Add in there yearly maintaince calls and you are in the red even assuming 2COP heat pump.

A heat pump will hit manufacturer rating if sized and installed properly, a COP near 3 is not hard. If your power is that expensive, PV is a no brainer so electricity costs also drop significantly.

This discussion is also moot as this thread is about heating system for new builds. Nobody is installing boilers, never mind oil boilers in a new build (except maybe in Alaska).

For a new build, you need something to meet code and provide what buyers want which is AC. Heat pump is currently the lowest cost option to do that, thus that is what builders will install. Currently there is a mix of hybrid gas/heat pump furnace systems in colder climate but that will slowly fade away as cost pressure increases.

Steamhead

@Kaos said:

"Heat pump is currently the lowest cost option to do that, thus that is what builders will install."

I rest my case.

Roger

@Kaos , top efficiency heat and hot water boilers are 87% field efficiency - it makes sense to compare top heat pumps with top boilers. COP of 3 does not happen during freezing temperatures when looking at field performance. Today’s circulators use about 30 W of power and many systems have zone valves which are a small fraction of that power. In total, the electric cost to operate a boiler (the burner is the highest consumer) is in the range of $60 to $90 per year at $0.30/kWh.

If you want to look at annual maintenance costs (consider expensive refrigerants and typical leak rates), you should also look at the much more frequent replacement costs of heat pumps versus boilers as well.

Roger

Hot_water_fan

"Heat pump is currently the lowest cost option to do that, thus that is what builders will install."

if that is the attitude, then the hydronic industry is not just in decline, it is headed to extinction.

Hot_water_fan

@Roger

If you want to look at annual maintenance costs (consider expensive refrigerants and typical leak rates), you should also look at the much more frequent replacement costs of heat pumps versus boilers as well.

how is this relevant to your point above about the appeal of dual fuel systems? Or just AC in general? You’d be replacing an AC/HP either way correct?

Roger

People might be making a decision about the direction to go with a hybrid heating system. For all of the reasons stated above, in cold climates that may heavily lean towards the boiler or furnace in existing housing stock versus installing a heat pump to do the heavy lifting during winter.

Hot_water_fan

@Roger sounds like you expect different reliability for AC only vs heat pump if I’m understanding correctly?

Roger

That wasn’t my point. I have heard contractors claim that heat pumps are less durable because they run much longer and harder than AC systems in cold climates, but I haven’t found definitive studies to support this. Considering the significant difference in lifespan between heat pumps/AC systems and boilers, I believe that potential disparity is largely irrelevant.

Hot_water_fan

@Roger gotcha. I agree it doesn’t seem well supported, as we’d see an AC in NY last 10x as long as one in AZ probably :).

I’m still unsure why the disparity between AC/HP and a boiler lifespan matter? The boiler doesn’t cool. If you want AC, then the lifespan different isn’t relevant right? You may as well compare a fridge to a boiler.

Roger

@Hot_water_fan Ha! I feel that the prudent choice is to wait until it makes sense to upgrade air conditioning to consider a heat pump (all else being equal). In cold climates with high electric rates, it’s also prudent to always have a boiler or furnace (high efficiency being my preference) - what to select is then independent of the air conditioning/heat pump decision.

Hot_water_fan

@Roger yup we agree on that!

HVACNUT

https://forum.heatinghelp.com/discussion/comment/1867539#Comment_1867539

That's exactly what I'm doing. We're on Long Island, where electric rates are a little high. My R22 CAC system is well maintained, but long overdue for an upgrade. I hope to be pulling the trigger soon. I'll be installing a 2 stage heat pump. Not an inverter system. I want to be able to go to my van and get what I need if something is needed. No resistance heat kit. Stage 3 will be oil fired baseboard. I had my AC on until just last week, so I know what that budget is.