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Question on the size of Daikin heat pump for new install

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I am trying to understand the difference between 3 different recommendations for new heat pump/air handler installation for a 2 story, 2055 SF single family house in Bay Area, California. The existing 20+ year old gas furnace is 3.5 ton and AC is 4 ton. Looking at replacing them with new Daikin heat pump and air handler.

The confusing part for me is that 3 estimators recommend 3 different size pump and air handler units. Each of them has convincing reasons.

One contractor recommends for 3 ton DH7VS heat pump and 3 ton Goodman DFVE air handler units based primarily on the “duct capacity”.

The second recommends for 4 ton DH6VS /4 ton DFVE units based on the existing system capacity.

And the third, 4 ton DH7VS /5 ton DFVE based on the existing system capacity and to maximize the efficiency as the system is converted from gas furnace to electric heat pump.

For those who are familiar with heat pump/air handler installation, what are your thoughts?

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