The End of The Age of Oil...

archibald tuttle

dale (and co.)


I'm your worst nightmare a plumber with a radio show.
(with homage to Eddie Murphy, 48 hours: "I'm your worst nightmare, a ni**er with a badge!")

Actually that it is a bit of an overstatement. I maintain apartment buildings and work in virtually all construction and systems maintenance capacities.

I own a relatively rural property in my northeastern US habitat. Came here as an environmentalist and will leave as an economist since the former role has served me poorly and the latter has done me well without any substantive change in what I personally hope to accomplish.

Tree growth since 1952 entire US per Brad W. Smith, Forest REsources of the United States, USDA Forest Service 2001 publication standing reserve has increased from 600 billion cubic feet to over 800 billion cubic feet (multiply by 12 for board feet). Significantly more of that increase in hardwoods than in softwood although both are up.

I'm not suggesting that government agencies are perfect but anyone who claims to be a scientist is not necessarily any better. Do not cop to the idea that scientists are realists. They may be or they may not just like those without letters after their name. Of course I have letters after my name too: SAT (self appointed troublemaker).

I look at trees like farmers look at a cornfield. You grow it for a while and then you cut it down. People get more attached because the growth cycle is well in excess of a couple generations but it works the same way.

It is true that forest regrowth is not necessarily identical to those cut but neither were many of those forests without significant human influence. Native burning probably the dominant factor in forest type we experience today.

Brian

billygoat22

I think somone said it earlier....Part of the solution is that the general population has to get an attitude of stewardship about resources. "waste not want not"

When gas prices went up people whined about $40/week to run their vehicle. I could drive a month on what some people burn in a week, and I drive 25+ miles to work each day! But, I do all my around town stuff in one trip, not 12.

If 30% of electrical power goes to comfort cooling, as I've heard on different occasions, how would simply moving duct into the thermal envelope affect national power usage? 10% estimated reduction/system and if 1/2 of systems would be affected, 30% would be reduced to 28.5%, not to mention the affect of regular maintenance.

Tony Conner_2

There Have Been...

... cases of several scientific studies being performed, all funded by a particular "organization". Any studies that didn't point in the "organization's" desired direction, were dropped from the press release. The guys who did the studies that were quietly "dropped" also missed out on the next round of funding from the "organization".

I've always liked the line from an elderly professor of journalism, who taught at a well respected university (I can't remember his name, or which school), but during the interview, he remarked that the one thing he tried to drive home to his students was while they were talking to people in positions of power, in the course of getting information for a story, was to be always be thinking "Who is this SOB, and why is he lying to me?"

Tony Conner_2

The First Thing...

... I wonder, when reading scientific studies or reports is "Who funded this?" Who pays the piper, calls the tune.

Dale Pickard

Forestry

Brian,

I have a degree in biology which I got at the U Montana. I had a great deal of emphasis on forestry and silviculture. I spent 6 years with the US forest service, doing timber inventory and timber cruising.
Inventory was of wild timber stands in Idaho and Montana. Places it took two days to hike to and that no one ever sees. We followed compass transect off aerial photos, so, no trails. We also inventoried timber plantations and clear cuts, some planted, some not.
Cruising is a term used to describe the process by which timber volumes in a given stand are closely estimated prior to a sale.

I don't think you know what you have clue what you are talking about.

It's interesting that you identify with A. E. Neumann who is after all, an igorant fool. I know that ignorance is bliss but I'm surprised to hear someone promote it as a path to bliss.

If you can't answer the riddle, I'm not going to write anymore.

Dale

archibald tuttle

ahh, now we see the stripes of the opposition. Missoula is definitely not the home of realists.

I worked extensively with Communities for a Great Northwest and numerous loggers, miners, and ranchers in the intermountain west, esp. in Libby area. I am the quintessential sagebrush rebel from east of the mississippi.

When I started objecting to regulatory overkill in the east, local environmental groups said I was part of the corporate funded backlash against environmentalism. Unfortunately someone just forgot to send me those corporate checks. I'm sure they have been in the mail for a couple decades now.

The rest is history. What nutcase environmentalists say is what the papers print. So I was reported to be part of a conspiracy against the environment and my response to this absurd charge was ignored by the media for years. So, I figured if I was in some kind of conspiracy I should go meet my co-conspriators and just started cold calling supposed environmental criminals in the west. Thus got a first hand from the workers eye view on the ground knowledge of resource exploitation in the west that put the lie to virtually everything I had been taught by the environmental movement. No use for them no more.

That would be the slightly longer explanation of the context of my interest in these issues which I hinted at in the last post. For once I was trying to use an economy of words, but now you've really got me going (thanks, I live for this kind of thing).

I presume by "you don't know clue what you're talking about" you mean that "I can't see the forest for the trees". I obviously know what the forest service inventories say and have said for some time. That we are growing far more wood than we are cutting. No the age classes are not identical to the forest that existed in the past but there is way more wood out there and federal land plans can average a 400 year roation so I'm not too worried that we won't have varied forests out there.

Just finished cutting almost 100,000 board feet of white pine off 30 acres and there is that much or more harvestable timber still standing never mind the stuff that is under a decade or so. Other than some slash you wouldn't even know we were there recently. I did it that way because its mine and I use it for other purposes and prefer to retain its forested character, but it would have been fine to clearcut too and start from scratch. I've got pictures of the place without a tree on it from the turn of the last century and it didn't have any trouble whatsoever growing more.

Here is the link to the latest online Forest Service inventory I cited. If you feel uniquely qualified to say why you are a better forest service scientist than those who put these reports together, by all means go ahead. If these reports are disingenuous falsifcations to perpetuate the evil hegemony of Pinchot over the glorious heritage of Muir just indicate where they are wrong.

http://ncrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/gtr/gtr_nc241.pdf

Brian

Dale Pickard

Can't answer the riddle?

No more soup for you. Realists only please.

Dale

Dale Pickard

Hey Russ

I think we understand each other, though I don't share your faith in energy technology that I see as complicated and dangerous.

About your heat pump....you might not get the results that you expect. When operating at low output temperatures, like less than 100 deg water, the COP, or coefficient of performance for a heat pump is pretty good, maybe 4 or even 5:1. So you might take electrictity prices @ say $25.00/million btu and produce useful heat at natural gas prices, say $5.00 per million. Good deal; it could be worth some substantial infrastructure in the form or mech hardware, holes in the ground, piping etc. to make this happen, if you didn't have access to NG. If you had access to NG, then it wouldn't be worth it to go through all this hassle to achieve NG prices, right?

However, the thing about HP's, is that as the output temp increases, the COP drops quickly. Also, the max. output temp is fairly low, like 120 deg f. A WaterFurnace model I'm looking at in their catalog produces a COP of less than 2:1 at output temps greater than 120 deg f.
Now that's not so good. Heat is being produced with fuel cost in the range of maybe $10.00 - $15.00 per million btu. On top of that you have to figure the parasitic comsumption of the pumps and/or blowers that you might use.

And, more importantly, you are doing it with electricity. As you approach COP's of 1:1, your investment in GSHP, mechanical equipment, maintenance etc. becomes worth less. Much less. You can use electricity to produce heat in simple resistance elements which can be had dirt cheap.

A HP system producing COP's that approach 1:1 have no payback for the substantial added investment over electric baseboards.

This is why you see so many GSHP systems using forced air; the delivery temperature is room temp, sometimes even less. It is common to size the ductwork for a GSHP air system to deliver more volume to compensate for the low air temps.

This is very true even though the delivery blower uses more power than a circulator might. The compressor is the real electricity user. To add insult to injury, these systems are not real comfortable.

I would think that 120 deg f would be the coldest that you might operate your cast iron radiators. I'm not sure that they will produce much heat that is useful at lower water temps. Truthfully, the same is true of a ThermoFin floor, only less so. A scheme like this might work if you had a very well controlled load. Otherwise, I wouldn't recommend it. If you really want to do GSHP, you might consider an air system.

Dale