Any predictions

mp1969

With the current use of natural gas by utilities to generate more and more electricity are we possibly setting ourselves up for shortages???
Gas prices in our area continue to rise and the utilities continue to install more gas generation stations.(less regulatory red tape)
I hate to date myself but I remember the artificial shortages in the early 80's that resulted in restrictions to natural gas use to heating only and commercial/institutional users mandated to have duel fuel capabilities.
I am a grand parent now maybe I worry more.

MP1969

Constantin

That's why I chose oil heat...

... the Canadian provinces have much less gas than they anticipated and so far, no one is willing to allow another LNG facility anywhere near Boston.

Sooner or later, the incentive programs by the utilities to switch to gas heat/water heaters combined with gas-fired turbine power plants will stretch capacity to the limit.

If Siggys calculations are correct, two fillings will get me through a winter. That would be great, if true.

Mark Hunt

I predict


that people will start to educate themselves on the REAL way to conserve energy usage in their homes.

The best in the industry gather here and any given one of them can design a system that will boggle all but the most learned engineer. But when it comes right down to it, HVAC contractors have a relatively simple job, "replace what is lost, remove what is gained".

If people really want to save energy, and energy equates to money, they will begin to look seriously at the shell they call home. Heating/cooling contractors only fill the gap left by the original construction. We do not control heat loss or gain, we only compensate for them.

So if you are building a new home or restoring an old home, consider this. The heat loss or heat gain is a direct result of conductive, convective and radiant heat loss/gain. Your comfort system is designed around those strengths or weaknesses. We come in AFTER the fact.

Don't worry about the gas guzzling SUV until you address your gas/oil guzzling home comfort system. Not everyone owns an SUV, but EVERYONE owns at least one heating appliance. Lots of inefficient heating appliances out there.

There are government standards that the manufacturers of automobiles, furnaces, boilers, water heaters, etc..... must meet. There are no standards for residential building construction. None for commercial construction either other than structural. Even if there were, who would police it?

So it comes down to this, you pay me to replace the btu's lost in the winter and remove the btu's gained in the summer. Your builder and insulating contractor control both of those numbers. We just play by those numbers.

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Weezbo

I like both the replies you have had so far.

Constantine is into a finely tuned piece of oil burning equipment..and has a 4 way modulating mixer and seperate zones and i think has made a very fine investment of time and effort and finacial resources.. he also got the insulate insulate insulate part all right as rain the first go around...should gas prices play the same song as the electric did in California where a bunch of yo yos played games with peoples lives Constantine will have made his oil purchase and have months to decied when to make the next purchase....Mark makes some radically good points, one is the crystal ball is telling him America is on the way to building A whole lot smarter in the future,it is saying the same thing in my crystal ball (which is actually a white rubber ball the size of a silver dollar with red blue yellow patches painted on it )
for me oil is my choise as i can always buy a bigger tank and hey 10000 gallons goes a long way even in the frozen north...Natural gas is way way abundant on the north slope of alaska..the big boyz arent going to sell it until they can sink thier hands Directly into our pockets ...same goes for the canadian gas ...how we will all fare... is likely that our generation wont see the worst of it.i am fairly certain the young people of the future will have a much harder time of it...telling everyone to open thier minds to two hundred years into the future doesnt seem to make a dent unless you run it by them over and over again
Really thinking done before a problem always is worth more than reacting off the effects of the problem.it, when mentioned the first time is often disregarded,then later when the results are determined ok "WHY DiDnt YOU SAY Something to me earlier?" Well...I did.you just werent listening.

Constantin

Very good points!

Mark, I absolutely agree with you that the first thing a prospective homeowner should do when they sit down with an Architect is to review green construction techniques. In new construction, there are all sorts of tricks that make a house more energy efficient, such as allowing the sun in during the winter but not the summer, etc. It costs virtually no extra dollars, just some thoughtful design time.

Building a wall with 2x8 construction is not that expensive compared to a 2x4 wall. The labor (usually the biggest cost component of a stick-built house) is the same. Yet, a 2x8 wall allows you to use a low-cost, regular efficiency insulator like Icynene or dense-pack cellulose, yet achieve excellent results. Meanwhile the marginal cost of going with thicker walls can be offset by the smaller equipment plant requirements (and the resultant energy savings in the future). It really is a case of pay me now or pay me later...

If I recall correctly, there are federal, state, and municipal building codes. For example, the Energystar people told me that our house was 50% better insulated than the federal standard calls for and 35% better than the MA code calls for. Cambridge also required a calculation of some sort illustrating how well our HSX-19 choice was going to impact energy efficiency. But like many building codes, I think the real question is how well they are enforced, and the awareness regarding the limitations of insulation, building envelope design, etc.

I hope that people wake up one day and do some testing on typical fiberglass insulated homes vs. regular cellulose, dense-pack cellulose, foam, etc. and then draw some conclusions for the country. It is my belief that the first conclusion will be that the average fiberglass insulation job is a sham since, as jerry scharf likes to point out, even a 5% void somewhere reduces the in-wall insulation effectiveness by 50%.

Then I remember the joys of duct and other hackery in the HVAC-Talk forums... and this stuff heats 93% of Americas homes. People spend beaucoup bucks on land, a house, a big entryway, etc. yet insist on the least efficient, least comfortable, etc. method of adding or subtracting heat from a home - because most of them wouldn't show off their heating and cooling system to their guests...

... that is the real challenge, my friends. Until we change the mindset in the US that being wasteful with energy is immoral, gluttenous, and unnecessary, there will be only little to no improvement on this issue.

The solutions to increase energy efficiency exist all around us, they have been proven, etc. yet the current environment does not lend itself to implementing them unless the homeowner insists on a green house.

EBEBRATT-Ed_7

Some EXCELLANT points made by all so I won't bother to put my 2 cents in.

We are energy pigs in this country. How do we convince customers that this is important??

I quoted a commercial job a few years back in a factory that had a room for storage of potentially flamable chemicals.The job designed by an engineer had an outdoor air handler with a hot water coil (glycol) and non sparking fan wheels to supply heat to the space. And exhaust fans on the roof moving the same cfm. WHAT A WASTE this was an $80,000 job (there was other work involved)

I recomended a pipe type air to air heat exchanger in place of the exhaust fans to remove the "polluted" air and bring in outside air. Not as efficient as the wheel types but the air streams could not touch. It would recover 50% of the exhausted heat! It only added $20,000 to the job and they wouldn't do it-even though it would have paid itself off in a couple of years.

jerry scharf_2

The times may be coming in California

I try to keep the positive side out, even as I see the battleships cruising the highways and byways.

CA has had a program called Title 24 that requires a minimum energy efficiency for a house. It may also apply to commercial, but I'm not sure. It's not much, and installation quality is not enforces, but it does guarantee some level of energy efficiency is maintained.

The bigger deal is the new electricity cost structure in California, which may become a model for the country. The PUC has introduced a new rate structure called critical peak pricing. In these situations, the utility gets to set 12 days each summer where between noon and 6PM they can charge between 3 and 5 times the normal peak rate (3x noot-3 and 5x 3-6.) This is currently for big customers, and is combined with incentives such as lower rates during other summer hours. Given that regular peak rate for PGE is $.35/KWh, that's some serious money Since this is targetted at the peak A/C demand, the heat gain through the building becomes an ideal target and can be justified against very high utility costs.

IMO, this is the start of a shift to have rate structures better reflect peak generation costs. I think this will slowly creap through the entire electrical rate structure. How long that takes is anyone's guess. Since you can bet on 12 days a year, the payback numbers for building insulation become dramatic. Also imagine net metering payback for photovoltaics at $1.05 or $1.75 per KWh.

Heating is quite a different animal price and demand wise, but the A/C side could drive a great deal of builing envelope improvements.

jerry

GMcD

Fossil fuels in general

The choice of oil vs gas vs other sources of energy will be polarized into electricity from non-fossil fuel resources (hydro, solar, wind, etc.) versus fossil fuel in a few decades anyway. As some of us know, it's all about the building envelope. Stop the heat gains and heat losses outside the occupied space and use the natural forces of nature to provide the comfort inside the building. It's not "green" or "sustainable" or any of those feel-good labels, it's about SMART DESIGN. Low energy use/high performance envelopes will either have to be legislated by progressive governments, or the natural economic supply and demand curve will take care of it, but the latter method will be far harder on many people who aren't able to deal with the financial realities of upgraded envelopes and the exponential increases in fossil fuel costs.

The next couple of decades will see more "resource wars" as other large populations in the world consume excessively, and the dwindling "way of life" that many folks are addicted to will become ever more strained.

It starts in design schools. We have to start making "building physics" mainstream for architects and building services engineers and techs.

I'll be doing my part, taking my bonus from this year and converting into a set of upgraded windows for the abode.

eleft_4

Mark, I guess you read this

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=332680&category=TFRIEDMAN&BCCode=&newsdate=2/13/2005

GMcD

Yeah, what he said

Unfortunately this type of report doesn't get anyone's attention other than those who agree with it. It's all connected. The more we consume, the higher the prices will rise, financing all those disenfranchised folks who watch the "consumers" continue thier ways, driving the money at even higher rates into the hands of those that would use it to further their particular way of life. Economic wars will continue at a higher rate along with shooting wars.

We will be living in interesting times....

ScottMP

Mark

Very well said ! As ussual you are right on the money with this. Theres only so much we can do "make heat efficiantly " its up the home owners and designers to maek the shell tight.

Not having been involved with this, what ever happened to the tight house syndrome that went on in the early 80's.
Are life breath/heat recovery systems the way to go ?

Scott


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Constantin

I've always been a fan of paying the \"true rate\"

In France, nukes provide 80+% of the grids power. Since a nuke takes a long time to spool down and back up, the French introduced variable electricity pricing a long time ago to stimulate demand during the night. Ever wonder why EU dishwashers, washing machines, etc. come with timers built in? It's to lower the cost of energy...

I look forward to the day when all architects are held to higher standards than just the shape & design of a building. It's so easy to quickly lower the energy consumption when a little forethought is thrown into the building design... then I see those single-pane glass palace towers in NYC or wherever and can only imagine what the solar gain must be doing to the AC system on the inside.

Hopefully, between regulation and rate structures we can convince Americans that being more aware of lifecycle costs and efficiency is a good investment for their pocketbooks, their national security, etc.

don_69

answers are of topic...

Tom_35

Natural gas guzzler

I was working with some "design/build" contractors a couple of years ago on a 100,000 sq. foot warehouse that had 42' sidewalls----lots of cubic feet!

We had designed the heating system for the warehouse and built in the required fresh air requirements. Towards the end of the negoiations, another mechanical company from out of state got involved and sold them on installing 100% make-up air heaters. Don't remember how many million BTU's it added up to, but there were more "zeros" than any job we had ever seen.

The out of state contractor got the job, got his money, and was gone. We were called mid way through the first winter with questions on the gas bill and why WE had installed that type of system. I informed them that our design was thrown out, and that their installer was from TN.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the next few years.

Tom A

mp1969

Excellent replies!

With the lack of a true energy policy in this country,I see a major realty check on the horizon. With the current bottom line mentality that is guaged by the stock market,any moves by the Bush team are considered anti-business.
We have a lot to learn regarding conservation and resource management yet I see very little coming out of Washington that is positive! In the eightiies we did a great number off commercial/institutional wood burning systems that are still in operation and saving $$$$$.
WHERE ARE THE INCENTIVES TODAY??? A gas guzzling SUV or Hummer can be written off the first year as a business expense, yet there are no incentives to buy hybrid cars or hybrid heating systems.

Go figure!

R. Kontny

EBEBRATT-Ed_8

This is somewhat off track but we have a manufacturing plant that has a 200 ton water cooled Trane chiller that they need to operate year round for process cooling and air conditioning.

We have installed a plate and frame heat exchanger and by cooling the water with the existing water tower they can now keep their chiller SHUT DOWN from November to March.

I don't know how much elect. they save but were talking at least 200 hp motor being shut down.

Why more of this isn't being done--I have no answer.

Gordy

Scarey

Totally agree with everyones opinion! What scares me is WHEN the Government will DECIDE to get off the pot and mandate some regulations.

Around my neck of the woods in northern Illinois, houses are growing like corn and they are definetly not GREEN HOMES. So by the time big brother gets their act together. We will have no green homes, the expansion will end, and there you have it. Sorta like imposing an impact building fee after 80% of the housing boom is done.

In my eyes they started at the wrong end of the hole thing, and that is the appliance efficency ratings. They should have started with a higher level dwelling efficiency rating.

Sometimes I think what this country needs is a good damn Depression to make everyone frugal again, like most of the old people that lived the last one are or were. Don't get me ranting on this. I built 2 green homes when I decided to sell them the fact that they were super insulated and passive solar did not mean squat to 95% of the people that were showed the homes. As usual price first, kitchen cabinets, Granite countertops? what no jacuzzi tub? No one asked how much to heat LOL.

Sorry to rant, but this subject matter needs to get past this board... People around here just want as many square feet for as little dollars as possible and the contractors are willing to give it to them and the loacal gov. agency is getting their realestate tax dollars........and the saga continues.

Gordy

Mark Hunt

Build it tight, vent it right.


HRV's solve a couple of issues. In tight construction, they will remove the humidity generated in the home as well as allow for the proper air exchange. With an HRV, YOU pick WHERE the air comes from, how much and how often.

As it stands now, air infiltration is a guess at best. I have yet to talk to a builder that knows what the ACH will be and none have ever told me what they were looking to get. I keep hearing about how tight the newer homes are, but our testing does not support these statements. They are still loose. Look at how many humidifiers are installed in new homes. If the house is dry in the winter, it is leaky. It makes no difference what type of HVAC system you have, it's all about air movement and all buildings have it.

Fiberglass insulation installs for less than a dollar per square foot as opposed to dense pack cellulose which installs for between $2 to $3 per square. Fiberglass does not stop air movement, cellulose does. Neither have any "eye candy" value so as usual, the cheaper of the two gets used most often. Take a good look at how much waste material is produce with FG as opposed to Cellulose. Cellulose waste is almost zero since any overage is swept up and used on the next job. Not so for FG. Into the dumpster.

Maybe I'll try this on the next new home I am asked to bid. I'll put a brochure of the heating plant I want to use on the table and ask the future owner to pick the size they want to pay for. I will explain that the big heater costs more to install and run, while the smaller unit is less expensive on both counts. When the pick the smaller unit, I will explain what the builder has to do in order for that one to work. Let's see how that flies!

Mark H

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Constantin

Mark, that is the way to go...

... and that is the direction that the heating industry should evolve into. There has to be a systems approach and whether you use a systems designer like Jerry Scharf or do it yourself, someone who knows what they are doing has to make all the components play nice with each other and the house.

I happen to think that a HVAC designer who can bring all the components to the table will be able to command a premium over the folks for whom "a boiler is a boiler". However, I don't work in this business, so I can only tell you what my, decidedly systems-oriented bias, would be.

Unfortunately, if Gordy is correct, the current housing market doesn't give a rats behind regarding energy efficient homes. That would very much distress me as I'm currently in the process of getting my home energystar certified.

Anyway, all the best with your proposal and I'd be interested to hear what the clients chose and why...

hr

What gets me is

the number of retiring couples building huge trophy homes, around my area! They spent their whole life wishing and saving for a home they don't need, and will cost a fortune to heat and cool.

Many of these subdivisions catering to the retiring boomers are REQUIRING large square footage homes in the CCRs. Drives me nuts. Two people in a 8000 square foot gas guzzling home. Just to impress the neighbors and friends.

On the other hand I have 3 ICF homes going with radiant this year. All first and second time homeowners, paying attention to insulation, windows and solar positioning. A hope it starts a trend.

hot rod

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Joe Brix

Sunday article in L.I. Newsday

There's a plan on the table to build an off shore LNG offloading platform in the middle of Long Island Sound.
9 miles off the coast, piped back to Shoreham. Watch the protesting and enviromentalists get all over this. We want the cheap fuel, but no one wants that in their back yard. Why don't we spend the hundreds of millions on Biodiesel and NG generating plants instead of increasing our importing of fuel?

Mark Hunt

Agreed


Most BUILDERS do not care and why should they? It's not their money paying the fuel bills right?

Their clients on the other hand assume that there are standards that the builder must adhere to. They are genuinely quite suprised when I tell them otherwise.

I do what I can to educate the builder as well as the end user. The end user will almost always see the value in energy efficiency as a whole house approach. I do know a few builders that agree and will offer the end user the option at least for upgraded insulation packages.

I have a good friend that is an insulating/air sealing contractor and I refer clients to him whenever I can. We met while we were both involved with the EnergySmart program here in NY. I will never be sorry for taking the Building Science courses, as they opened my eyes to MANY things I was used to ignoring.

I think things are going to get better!

Mark H

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Gordy

Yup

Thats going on here to hot rod. I hope I'm wrong in that what I'am seeing in my neck of the woods is not a paramount of the whole country or for that matter the world. But there is enough heat guzzling shacks going up around here to paint a grim picture. Scarey For the children and grandchildren.

As I see it Geoff is right on with the future of power, in that it will be electricity revolving around natures forces to create it, Don't forget the waves of the ocean in there.I Also read an interesting article on using tunnels that span hundreds of miles from areas of inherently high barometric pressure to areas of inherently low barometric pressure. In these specially designed tunnels there would be generators running off of the wind from the pressure differences. Claims that these pressure differences can be enhanced by tunnel design to approach mach speed.

I think big brother has an unshared plan don't all of you?, I can't believe they are blind to what we see, and one day say Uhmm Oppsy no more oil Folks your on your own. We thought there was plenty. Or are we merrily a passenger in the Indy 500 with a blind folded driver, waiting to hit the wall or cross the finish line.

Gordy

Mark Hunt

How about


one guy in a 25,000 sqft home?

Darin and I were involved on just such a project several years ago.

And it's not just the size of the houses either, the wasted space in the framing just kills me. On some houses I'll bet there is as much unused space as there was living space!

I don't ever want to dictate to people what they can and cannot have, but for crying out loud build it smarter!!!!

Mark H

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Gordy

There was one on HGTV I think, where the gentleman GC'd his 11,000 square foot home for the family of all three of them. I don't think he would GC another home after the mess he had. As you say build smarter.

Darin Cook_3

How about windows?

Mark and I were involved with several different custom homes last year and those homes had window packages of $70,000 to $100,000 ( imagine paying that much money for one of the big heat losers in the house). We had steered them to a great insulating contractor and he had proposed dense pack cellulose for those homes. I forget the exact price but lets say it was around $22,000 ( homes were around 7,000+ sq ft ) for everything to be insulated including our radiant system. You would have thought Mr. Insulator had lobsters growing out of his head. The project manager grumbled " that's alot of money for just insulation". But once the GC sat down and figured the cost of fiberglass and labor dollars, he realized it was just a few thousand more for something that would give alot more payback in energy dollars and make his building more comfortable ( thanks to our input). These stories had happy endings but alot of the time if it is not eye candy people are not inclined to put dollars into that arena.

The A/C load in the summertime is always ready to drop the grid from underneath us. What if all these homes were insulated to the best of our ability? A/C needed input would be minimal. Lets not forget A/C with the exception of medical needs is still a luxury item. Knowing that a great amount of heat loss is through conduction of the framing, Why isn't high R foam board put up on the exterior walls behind the sheetrock mandatory? With the technology and construction methods available today, there is no reason why we could not greatly reduce this countrys energy requirements. That is just with fossil fuels, imagine if alot of alternative energy sources were made more affordable. When it comes to building constuction technolgy the means are available NOW to make them energy sippers instead of energy hogs. But people need to reduce the eye candy and look at their childrens future.








Darin

Mark Hunt

How about


those windows at Ingersons? The ones we could look outside along the edges when the window was closed and locked?!?!?

What a blower door test that would have been!!!!


Mark H

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Gordy

Yikes

> those windows at Ingersons? The ones we could

> look outside along the edges when the window was

> closed and locked?!?!?

>

> What a blower door test

> that would have been!!!!

>

> Mark H

>

> _A

> HREF="http://www.heatinghelp.com/getListed.cfm?id=

> 238&Step=30"_To Learn More About This

> Professional, Click Here to Visit Their Ad in

> "Find A Professional"_/A_



That is another RANT quality of building materials and INSTALLATION practices. Quality or quanity the latter seems to rule anymore.

Gordy

Yikes

That is another RANT quality of building materials and INSTALLATION practices. Quality or quanity the latter seems to rule anymore.

Constantin

Allow me to quibble...

Great insulation is but one cog in the machine. If someone insists on installing ginormous unobstructed window walls facing south with no overhang, they're going to have a ginormous cooling bill, no matter what you do... Once excess heat has been let into the building, you're going to have to remove it somehow.

For me, the quest for a less-energy-dependent house starts with the architect, who works with the customers and a energy/HVAC guru. People successfully and comfortably live off-grid in remote areas all over the US. There is no reason that we cannot drastically reduce heating and cooling needs simply by following in their footsteps and installing infrastructure that works efficiently.

GaryDidier

cellulose insulation

Mark, I totaly agree with your comments on insulation. Fiberglass comes in a poor second to cellulose even when expertly installed. I have heating histories to prove how good cellulose works on several renovations where it was used. A one family house,(renovated 1895 victorian} 1700 square foot, -20 design temp uses about 400 gallons of oil per year and this includes hot water!

Another axample is a renovated 4 family {1850 farm} house, 3000 square feet, where the tenants controll their own heat. This one uses about 800 gallons of oil per year.

The fuel savings payback is tremendous compared to fiberglass and will be in effect as long as the buildings stand.

My preferred method is to sheath all the exterior walls on the inside with 1 inch high-r insulation board with strapping over this. Then holes can be drilled so the cellulose can be blown in the stud bays and joist cavities.
No cold air blowing through outlets or gaps anywhere.

It is amazing how much smaller the heating mechanicals need to be when a building is built this way. The comfort level in the building is also dramatically improved.

Just some thoughts from someone who been there and done it.

Gary from granville

S Ebels

Another thing I've run into...............

Hysterical.......... I mean Historical societies or areas. The city of Cadillac, about 20 miles from us has a lot of old late 1800's lumber baron houses in the area right up from the lake. You can't do anything and I mean anything that cahnges the appearance of the exterior of the house. Inside options are severly limited also. For instance, a sidewall vented boiler or furnace just can't be done. You can't have pipes out the side or even up the old flue. You can't use any windows that differ from the old single hung single pane windows. They all have to be wood framed and exactly match the existing opening. Forget about blowing the side walls too. In order to do that you have to remove the old siding and then drill and blow. There can be no plugs on the exterior siding.

Some of these places are 7-8,000 sq ft and have gas bills of well over $1,000 a month. That's with natural at $.82 a therm here.

Maybe some of you remember my post that said we need $3.00 a gallon oil. (along with associated increases in LP and natural gas) A lot of folks said to be careful what you wish for but I'm convinced that it will take something like that to stop the insanity going on in the housing/construction market today. There is no reason the houses currently being constructed, couldn't be built with heating and cooling loads of 10 btu/sq. ft. or less. The problem is few people see the need and fewer still will spend money on insulation instead of a granite countertop or a human car wash type shower.

Gordy

Exactly!

> Great insulation is but one cog in the machine.

> If someone insists on installing ginormous

> unobstructed window walls facing south with no

> overhang, they're going to have a ginormous

> cooling bill, no matter what you do... Once

> excess heat has been let into the building,

> you're going to have to remove it somehow.

>

> For

> me, the quest for a less-energy-dependent house

> starts with the architect, who works with the

> customers and a energy/HVAC guru. People

> successfully and comfortably live off-grid in

> remote areas all over the US. There is no reason

> that we cannot drastically reduce heating and

> cooling needs simply by following in their

> footsteps and installing infrastructure that

> works efficiently.

Gordy

Exactly!

Constantin, You are exactly right on all points .........But the problem is, at least around here alot of these subdivisions require you to use their builder, GC. You get a select number of plans to choose from, and this in turn limits your options. If indeed you wanted all the important energy saving aspects of a home that should be required now days.

Another thing is that most people just don't know what products are there,what products will benefit the envelope most or where to begin on getting a house up to green standards. Most of these postage stamp subdivision GCs are not going to lay it out for the prospective buyers, because that deviates from there production line. I will go out on a limb to say that if given a choice they would dump money in landscaping before upgrading windows, doors, insulation, HVAC.

Another big influence, home network shows that mostly emphasize the decorating end of the home thats fine,But How about a good home T.V. show that covers the very topics we discuss right here to educate the people with older and newer homes on where to stick there hard earned dollars FIRST. The Home Builders Channel or something.

I don't mean to make it sound as though there are no quality builders around here, because there is a few custom builders that I would use that do offer green home options .....but most people again don't see the point. The problem is the masses just want a house cheap and quick.

S.EBLES fuel to 3.00 a Gal and hike the rest as you say would definetly have the masses scrambling for solutions.

Constantin

Very Good Points...

Historical commissions can be ridiculous in their zeal to preserve certain aspects of homes that should become history.

Cambridge is very progressive and reasonable, so I count my blessings. They allow things like storm windows because it preserves the historic windows behind them and because they're removable. On the other hand, I can assure you that casting a brick shelf into the new foundation wall and bricking around the house was not cheap... Yet, our home is testament to the fact that 15BTU/(ft² x hr) at -15°F is possible... and if we use the ASHRAE 9°F design point for Boston, we're even close to your 10BTU limit... 12BTU/(ft² x hr) to be exact.

The easiest way for us to meet conservation goals is the gradual and irrevocable raising of fuel taxes across the board. Not only would this go a long way towards reducing the ridiculous deficit this country is running right now, it would also allow the economy to adjust gradually as opposed to being hit up by sticker shock in the future.

If people know that fuel prices will rise, they'll adjust their behavior accordingly. Homes will have more energy-concious envelopes, consumers will have a better reason to question their GC about energy efficiency. Furthermore, if the phase-in is gradual, there is ample opportunity for industry and homeowner alike to make adjustements before it really hurts.

It never stops to amaze me to see how different the energy consumption patterns are across industries and nations. Naturally, there is little incentive to save on energy in the US where capital costs are comparatively high and energy prices are low. In Europe, capital costs are much lower, though heating fuel prices aren't that different... yet, homes and industry alike do more with less.

Perhaps it's as easy as providing low-cost loans to encourage energy-conservation and renewable-energy production. I just hope that we get a better handle on this before the resource-crunch makes life really unenjoyable.

RonWHC

Great points.

But, the question was about generating electricity w/ a premium fuel, natural gas: and are we setting ourselves up for a shortage? The short answer is - we should NEVER generate electricity w/ natural gas. Yes. The gas crunch(price wise) is already here.

I know. There are thousands, or is it millions, of capped gas wells in the USA, just waiting for the price to skyrocket. Or haven't you heard? The construction of the ultimate energy efficient buildings, as we know them today, will make a very small dent in our energy needs for the near future.

A recently released study by some gummint agency said that in 20 years we will have to import 20%+ of our natural gas as LNG. Bet the types who are fighting the LNG terminals, & coal fired generators, & wind farms, & nuclear, & drilling in Alaska, & off the coast, constitute a large number of those who live in the mausoleums/houses we talk about. They can afford the energy bill now. And, when they believe it is too high, they will figure out a way for you & me to subsidize them.

Are there ways out? Yes. But, when we start to get serious, energy prices will drop until we get hooked again. Then the cycle will start all over. Catch 22 anyone?