State of the industry

Ted_8 · February 2004

I have been sitting here wondering when we in the wet heat industry are going to get serious. The warm air guys have got it figured out and are enjoying their success. I know that many of you are successful and I am not trying to imply anything to the contrary. I just feel that as an industry we do pretty poorly. The warm air guys have better training, better associations, dealer programs, advertising and lots more.
When are we going to learn how to market? When will there be an association that will truely help our industry grow? When will there be a wet heat dealers network?
Anyone interested in starting this up, I will be your first customer.

Chris

Mike T., Swampeast MO · February 2004

The \"network\" is the EASY thing...

...getting a group to actually agree on the most effective way$ to skin a cat is what is difficult...

Hydronic heating is wonderfully versatile but that very versatility causes LOTS of problems when you start talking about "real" people and "real" methods.

Ted_8 · February 2004

Doomed

I agree that hydronics are very versatile but I feel that this versatility is what is holding us back in many cases.
The warm air industry thrives on consistancy. The packaged boiler was the first step and now guys like Robert Bean and Tim Doran who are creating panels and preaching the benefits of consistant installations are the second step. I feel that this kind of thinking is what will save our trade and it needs to go much deeper than just boilers and panels.

Chris

Mike T., Swampeast MO · February 2004

Boilers & panels are just the FIRST step!!!!

You have to consider how the heat flowing through that boiler and that panel are actually transmitted to the space!

With air it's a "no-brainer", but when you have to actually remove the heat from the water first...

So many methods as to boggle the most brilliant minds yet nearly all will work to some degree of efficiency.

Randy Tibbits · February 2004

With all due respect hydronic contractors are better trained and have their ducks in a row compared to the forced air industry. When a hydronic system is "cheated" in somebody is going to learn a lesson. With forced air it's easier to "cheat". Just my opinion

Boilerpro_3 · February 2004

I generally agree

From the quality of work I've generally seen in the forced air industry I'd say training is almost nonexistant. If something doesn't work just start changing components. All I regularly work on is hot water and steam, but I've gone in and balanced forced air systems after the owners were told they needed a bigger furnace so the house would heat properly. I've come in after forced air contractors and had to reset anticipators because they were completely off. There are some great exceptions among those that visit and contribute to this site, but around northern Illinois, where almost everything is hot air, the situation is dismal in the hot air industry.

Boilerpro

Ted_8 · February 2004

Good comments

I guess that I see the warm air guys in a different light because I used to deal with a lot of commercial projects. Trane and Carrier do a good job of training with the commercial folks. I would have to admit that the residential side is lacking in ability/quality. I would say that this is also true in the hydronics game on the whole. There are area's that do well but much of the country is in the dark ages. The guys that hang around here are more talented and dedicated than most and IMHO are not representative of the industry as a whole.
Training and quality aside. Marketing and consumer confidence are the keys to growth. I contend that we must unite and we must provide a recignized, consistant product offering to grow our share of the available projects.

Chris

Unknown · February 2004

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Jerry Boulanger_2 · February 2004

Let's not forget the energy card...

I listened to a speaker from Europe last week at a sales meeting who made the comment that in Europe they design 'systems' for maximum energy performance, but he soon realized when he brought his products to North America that 'you don't care about energy over here'. Ouch.

There are reasons why almost everyone in Europe owns a boiler. We just don't have the same reasons here yet.

jalcoplumb_2 · February 2004

I agree ...

with you Jerry.

I think that if it came to a real energy crunch you would find a 90+ boiler, some type of radiant heat with a good indirect water heater the most efficient way to heat and provide hot water.

Cooling would be another issue.

Joe

RB_2 · February 2004

Consider these stats and possibilities...

HVAC Industry = 69 Billion Dollar Industry

Approximately 50% is Residential

Over 80% of all buildings in North America are under 20,000 sf and over 55% are under 5000 sf.

Some predict within the next 5 years there will be an over abundance of buildings as the construction industry will have over built for the needs of our changing population.

There are appx 83,000 PHC firms in the U.S. of which 48,500 have less than 4 employees...all of them doing something different on every project...different systems...different controls...no consistency...

In 2001, 250,000 people were registered in Canadian apprenticeship programs but only 18, 260 received completion certificates.Electrical and electronics rose 12% but in the same reporting period the construction trades has declined 16% since 1995. ( Don't have the figures for the U.S....please - if anybody has them or knows where I can get them >>>> warmfloors@shaw.ca )

The attached graphic I use in my seminars to bring reality to our discussions.

The declining single line graph in the upper left hand corner is the trend in available skilled laborit peaks in 1980the far right is 2020.(This is a trend line not the actual # of skilled help)

The big graph is the aging of the North American population. If you want to see where you are atfind your year of birth and move 49 years ahead and you can see how many people are of the same age 49 years from your birth date.

The heavy black line is the S & P 500you can draw your own line from 1990 to todayenough to say it follows the graph.

Some sample hypothetical questions for your imaginations

If 48,500 Plumbing, Heating, Cooling firms are owned by small businessmen/women approaching retirement in the year 2010how many PHC businesses will be for sale or closed down?

If the skilled labor trend isnt turned around by the year 2020 and Grandpa & Grandma Holohan calls in the middle of the night, January 1st, 2020, (-30 deg. F) to get a service tech to fix his 1970s heating systemask how many other calls have been placed that night by other Grandpas and Grandmas...how many firms will be around to take them...how long before someone gets therewill they be able to fix itwill they have the parts in the truck/vanit won't be Viagra keeping them up at night - this I can promise!

Go ahead take a minute to think about it.

If you want all the details on how this influences our industry, our customers, and your business come to the next presentation.I promise- it will enlighten you and possibly protect the future value of your business.

hiho hiho...its off to work I go...blah blah blah

rb

Quotes, graphics credits to Contractor Magazine, Globe & Mail, Alberta Construction Report, Paine Webber, Harry Dent, Future Trends.

hr · February 2004

It's driven by dollars!

always will be. Central air has a lot to do with FA sales, I suspect.

We talk about marketing radiant to the masses often at RPA meetings. Anybody care to chip in for that expense?

Then I got to thinking, The RPA has 900 some memembers. 200 and some are contractors, Suppose we market to the entire country, perhaps a Super Bowl ad. Who would sell and install these systems? Heck, who would even be able to answer the calls for info and bids, that nationwide ads could generate?

Not too many radiant contractors sitting idle these days. Be careful what you wish for. What if you invite the world to your party, and they all show up

Better have the hydronic army and reserves ready to go into action.

hot rod

To Learn More About This Professional, Click Here to Visit Their Ad in "Find A Contractor"

Tim Doran · February 2004

McDonalds

If you are uncertain about the validity of a consistant message and offering just ask yourselves why Mcdonalds is the most successful fast food franchise in the world. Hint, it's not because the food is good or because it is good for you.

Tim D.

Ted_8 · February 2004

200

The RPA only has 200 +- contractor members??? Somethings wrong there because there are lots more than that out here putting the stuff in. Why aren't more radiant installers getting involved with it? Who are the other 700+- members?
I know many of my competitors and not one of them is busy all of the time with radiant heating. We all do some warm air, base board, steam, plumbing, and what ever else it takes to get by. How many of the guys here on the wall only do radiant? I assumed one or two based on what I have read. Besides, I am not talking just radiant heating here. I am talking hydronics in general. I thought that there would be more passion for the trade and for perpetuating it's survival with this group. I guess as an industry that we can't see the forrest for the trees.

Disappointed,
Chris

Grumpy · February 2004

I don't know what reasons anyone else might have for not joining RPA, but for me it comes down to the fact that anyone with the money for the membership is welcomed with open arms. I take exception to that liberal of a policy for admission criteria. I was formerly a full blown mechanical contractor, in the last five years, I have limited all new work to hydronics only (we still service the plumbing and HVAC needs of our existing customers). I love it and would never go back.

Justin Gavin · February 2004

Controlled Growth

I agree with Hot Rod. Right now we don't have enough trained installers/designers to handle a large influx of radiant jobs. With that quality would be comprimised. Once quality is compromised you have major problems. Major problems = Bad Rap. Bad Rap = no more interest in Radiant Heat. No Radiant Heat = no more fun at work.

I agree we must grow but we must grow with controlled growth. And I can't speak for the rest of the country but our company promotes hydronic systems. Customers ask for FA and we offer the bid. Than we offer the bid with an air handler and Indirect tank. Once we have them sold on that we move on to a couple of radiant panels. And keep going after that. It works. We spoon feed our clients and educate them on the benefits. People will buy when its in there best interests.

Radiant won't die. Its been around way too long. I don't think it will ever be as main stream as FA. But honestly if it was I think we would all lose out because demand creates supply. Supply creates a commodities.

I prefer to be on the opposite side of the spectrum. I like to be in demand.

As the sayin' goes, be careful what you wish for.

Justin

Ken D. · February 2004

Hydronics

Training is the big issue. The scorched air and cooling guys have plenty of training and seminars after hours and on weekends where a working stiff can attend for either free or a small fee. Hydronics Intitute and others on the other hand have their seminars during normal working hours and costs plenty. The boss is not going to want you to miss work to attend, or pay you for attending nor will he pay large fees-if any, leaving you to fend for yourself if you can afford it.
When said seminars are held during the season, matters are complicated. Better to partner with organizations like the RSES Who have a history of affordable an accessible seminars and training programs. That is something to consider. Someone mentioned licensing. I am not a big fan of licensing as one thing I have learned in 25 years of working in my tri-state area- where many municipalities and one state have licensing in one form or another- is the crooks that were around before licensing are now crooks with licenses. Weak and non-existant enforcment is the norm.

Warmfoot · February 2004

Hydronics Only

We only do hydronic installs and service existing hydronic systems. Employees include myself and one Installer who I trained. We do 10 to 20 new installs a year plus an incredible amount of service. I believe you can never have enough education, so Chris (My Tech) and I go to at least 8 hours a month of seminars, and classes. Friday, we go to Portland to take the RPA Installer certification exam. At this point, I think the ONLY advantage to being certified is for marketing purposes. With only 200+ RPA contractors, it won't be hard to sell myself and my company. OK I am off track here.... I have hired apprentices in the past, given them an opportunity to get familiar with hydronics, have even given them one or two of Dan's Books to see if they read them. Most all of them have no desire to learn. I get resumes from people who say they have a lot of experience in hydronics, but the first question that comes to my mind is if they are so good, WHY are they unemployed? The second thing that comes to my mind is can you retrain an experienced installer to do things "MY" way? I am particular about how things get done. Sorry for the rant, I just needed to vent...I guess.

Why don't we start a chain of those technical schools....like the HVAC school in AZ? "The Hydronics Art Institute"...ok, ok, rambling again,,,

Ernie Bogue

www.warmfeetusa.com

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