Future of Fuel Oil

Robert O'Brien

"In the short term - over the next few years - the winners will be the people that work to reduce their use of fossil fuels. High efficiency boilers, Oil to Gas conversions, Insulation, solar, geothermal etc. The losers will be the stubborn ones that continue to cling to oil."

I agree in principle,but aren't propane and NG fossil fuels?

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Ken D.

Future of Fuel Oil

I read an article that was basically an obituary for the Fuel Oil business, citing ever higher prices and supply problems coupled with an explosion of demand in China and India. I disagree, but what do the Wallies think?

Steamhead (in transit)

Where

was the article?

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jp_2

as long as there will be gas

there will be fuel oil. radio said the other day, 100 new oil drilling permits in michigan.

Paul Fredricks_6

Futures

Fuel oil down .13 yesterday.

Down .04 so far today.

The US needs to take it easy with the knee-jerk reaction. For years natural gas was the more expensive way to heat. It's still here. Here in CT electric is still more expensive to heat with, and it's still here.

Doug_7

Future Cost of Fuels - Peak Oil

Google "Peak Oil" and it will blow your mind. Attached is one slide from a presentation on Peak Oil that I did 3 years ago that illustrates the peak.

What the rest of the world knows, but the U.S. and Canada seem to be in an advanced state of denial about, is that the world production of crude oil has reached it's peak and there is no more spare crude oil production capacity anywhere in the world. OPEC increasing production is a joke - but it is a joke they like, because it keeps you on the hook.

In mature oil fields, oil production is declining. This is pure physics. Oil production in the U.S. peaked and began to decline in 1973. Oil production has peaked and is in decline in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, Venezuela and the North Sea to mention but a few majors. Indonesia has declined to the point where they can no longer export any crude oil.

New oil discoveries won't solve this problem. We are curently using four barrels of crude oil for every one new barrel of oil we discover. New oil discoveries can't keep up with the production decline in existing oil fields, which is 4% to 6% a year - every year.

We hit the peak in 2008 - and as a direct result, the price of crude oil, diesel fuel and gasoline have doubled in the last year. Prices will double again in the next two years - constrained only by high prices destroying demand and economies.

Europe is reducing oil and fossil fuel consumption as fast as they can. Sweden is comitted to eliminating use of fossil fuel entirely and are well on their way to doing so. Germany has 18,600 wind turbines. About 20% of the power in Denmark is being generated by wind turbines. The European Union has set new building standards that reduce new building energy consumption by 75%. They also have programs to rate and upgrade existing building energy efficiency.

And guess what - Energy efficiency and the reduction in fossil fuels improves the countries economy. Buying oil is a huge drain on the economy. Why continue to spend $ billions on oil ? There are huge new business opportunities in energy efficiency and reducing fossil fuels.

So the world is changing very fast with regard to oil and other fossil fuels. If the U.S. and Canada don't get with the program soon, they will be left in the dust clinging to the last barrel of $1,000 crude oil.

In the short term - over the next few years - the winners will be the people that work to reduce their use of fossil fuels. High efficiency boilers, Oil to Gas conversions, Insulation, solar, geothermal etc. The losers will be the stubborn ones that continue to cling to oil.

We are not running out of oil - there is still lots of oil - we are running out of our ability to pay the ever increasing costs of oil. And poorer people will run out of this ability first.

There - I said it and I didn't even once mention climate change, global warming and green-house gasses.

Do not get caught up in short-term thinking about energy options.

Doug

jp_2

slight correction

i sure am been more clear, I meant gasoline not natural gas.

you end up with X amount of fuel oil when you make Y amounts of gasoline.

Doug_7

Reduce Fossil Fuels

For sure natural gas is a fossil fuel. Gas is a competitive fuel with oil and it suffers from exactly the same supply limitation as oil - Gas supply is depleting also - it is just not as bad and isn't happening quite as soon. This is why we are starting to import LNG.

The reason I said it that way, is that it will take a long time (decades) to wean people completely off of oil. It is impossible to get to zero very quickly.

So in the short term (years) work to REDUCE fossil fuel use. If you reduce your use by 30% it will cost you 30% less. I am glad I installed a condensing boiler. I am still using gas, but at a much lower cost.

In the long term (decades) - you want eliminate fossil fuel use. That is the primary objective, but everyone won't buy-in and everyone can't figure out how to do it and it won't happen very quickly and it won't be cheap.

When it comes down to individual action - by all means work to eliminate your use of fossil fuels. It begins with the first step and you will be laughing when the cost crunch really comes. In the meantime, if you can't get your mind around elimination - you will get ahead of the game by reducing your use of fossil fuels. Good for now.

Doug

Robert O'Brien

Doug

I agree with your point,but what difference does it make what fossil fuel you burn?The goal is to consume less Btu's whether in liquid or gaseous form

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Doug_7

Oil cost will run-up sooner and quicker than gas or coal

What fossil fuel you burn makes a small difference for the environment but there will be a growing large difference in the cost of alternatives.

Oil is depleting much faster than gas or coal, therefore the price of oil will increase much faster than the price of gas or coal.

Lots of things require oil - ships, trucks, trains and cars. When it comes to oil price competition - ships, trucks and trains will out-bid cars and houses for the supply. There are cheaper energy alternatives for cars and houses.

Agree with the objective to use less Btu's - but oil will be the worst case scenario - because oil cost will run-up sooner and quicker than gaseous fuels and coal.

Oil and gas will deplete and become very expensive long-term (decades) - but solar and wind will be always be available.

A wise man once said: The only thing difficult to predict is the future.

Doug

[Deleted User]

I guess it's scary if you believe in the peak oil theory but I don't believe the peak oil theory.

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Greig_3

ANWAR

1st off, conservaction is the key. Maybe it is time to open up ANWAR and the Chukci sea. There is more oil in this area than there is in the middle east. But some people think that ANWAR is a garden of Eden (Bill Clinton) It is not! I live in Alaska and have been there several times. If you have never been to the oil patch in Alaska then you have noconception of how clean and eco friendly it is up here. The days of the huge home and heating it to 70 and cooling it to 72 are gone. Turn the stat down in the heating season, put more clothes on, turn up the stat in the cooling season and get naked. Ha Ha, Get rid of the gas hog and slow down. If the goverment really wanted to do something about fuel comsumption then reset the speed limit to 55! People would be very up set because it would take longer to get some where. Oh my GOD

Noel Kelly_3

poor dollar

There is no getting away from the impact of the pathetic value of the dollar. Oil is traded in dollars, thus any depreciation in the value of the dollar results in higher costs.Which begs the question - why is the value of the dollar so poor on the world market? Couple this with the insatiable appetite of India and China and... Peak oil theory has relevance but let's not forget the immediate cause. Oh, I forgot the fact that the producers' profits are the highest historically!

Noel K.

Doug_7

Believe or Not

It really makes no difference to me who believes in Peak Oil and who doesn't. Peak Oil is a scientific explanation supported by a lot of data and a large number of very knowlegable scientists, that explains the recent run-up in oil prices - and why price will continue to run-up.

Is the run-up in oil prices all a conspiracy between OPEC and the oil companies ? They could pump more oil but they just won't ?

How do you explain why U.S. domestic oil production peaked in 1973 and had declined ever since ?

North Sea oil peaked in 1999 and North Sea oil production has fallen off by 40% since then.

Peak Oil is not just a theory - there are countless proven examples.

But - Join the club - you are in good company. Canada and the U.S. are in denial, but a growing list of countries "get it" and are taking action.

It is just about the cost of oil.

Doug

Jed_2

And, what about

North Dakota?

Jed

Jed_2

And another

Ostrich "peaks" it's head.

Weezbo

Zero net would be a good place to start.

then a dash of consideration of world resource mining with some sustainable goal in mind of planet resources and population,...along with the careful management of bio diversity ...

just thinking out loud here we only know for certain 12.5 trillion people will be slightly more population than we are currently able to deal with..so,...before we have super pudgey people given stupid shots with cow hormones to be bred for food we had better address a few of these issues Now .... and if not now... when?

at the moment it takes fuel to mine..if we wished to develop geo thermal in this area it would cost quite a bit of resources ..

in order to make 'Things" it requires energy to transform material raw resources that are available ....

for the most part world view is an important aspect of any developed unified front or maybe the better way to say that is if it is true for me it is true for you. therefore looking long term with a basic idea of treating others as you would want to be treated might be some of the glue that got more people to stick together on the topic..

what we do as individuals is important for sure buh some kind of planet wide macro economics needs to be developed...

some laws are equally brutal to us all.

over development to "Catch up' ,...using turn off 1/2 of all lighting in a city.... or shut down all non essential power distribution..shut down all manufacturing.. those kind of solutions wont work for any of us ,... so,.. when it comes to what we should be doing ?...it would be looking to do what we can from wherever we are to keep restating the obvious .. eventually the common viewpoint will catch up and the price of fuel wont be an issue any longer, as there wont be any fuel..

to move our planet wide biodiversity somewhere else to "start all over again",would not be some easy task..so basically we are stuck here ... we ought to be doing what we can to develop the resources we have while we are still able to do so.

i think that some countries have over reacted..in the past...

now, the effects of the over reaction comes to light as do the COSTS ....the costs are so great that it takes away the development leaving colossal monuments to the stupidity of man kind all over the planet..

man i am on a Roll )

oops

well hang in there we will keep the glow worms and fireflies on for ya

i am going to train ice worms to function in unison and develope a bio circ pump... soon as i find the time *~/:)

Doug_7

Nice oil find in North Dakota

Nice oil find in North Dakota - the estimated reserve is about 4 billion barrels.

Estimated reserve is equal to about 48 days of global oil use and 200 days of U.S. oil use. Man - we use a lot of oil.

It is shale oil so expensive to recover. Needs hundreds of wells, which will deplete quickly.

Will be an excellent boost to local economy. Hope they find more.

Doug

Doug_7

Dollar Exchange Rate

Good point Noel. The drop in U.S. dollar exchange rate vs. the Euro accounts for about 13% of the run-up in crude oil prices over the last year.

Something else accounts for the other 87% of the oil price increase.

I think the #1 reason the dollar is dropping is the huge amount of money we borrow every day to pay OPEC and others for crude oil. Then there is the Iraq war.

Doug

[Deleted User]

The bottom line is that you believe what other people have written or stated and I believe what I have read. You didn't go out and put a stick in the ground to see it for yourself. I didn't go out and test any theories either. I just believe what I do because I believe that scarcity and fear have been used before for profit. Just wait until the carbon tax. But you left Russia of the list of countries that are in denial. That's because they believe in abiotic oil rather than fossil fuel theory.

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RonWHC

Reducing energy

use does not automatically result in $$ savings. Reduced electric usage 15% over last year. The thanks we received from the electric co-op was a 40% price increase.

Local gas utility went for big distribution price increase this year. Why? Costs up. Usage per meter down.

Reduce energy usage? Yep. Save later? That pot-o-gold at the end of the rainbow is empty.

Peak oil theory, Hubbert's (1950's), U. S. Interior Dept. (1930's), or Doug's - always underestimate, or ignore, new technology & economic incentives to finding, & producing, oil & natural gas. Why haven't we increased domestic production? Ask the Sierra Club & Congress. Political pay offs from tax exempt entities work.

Doug_7

Just the facts

I am always interested in peoples opinions, especially when they are based on published facts and data, that can be shared and reviewed.

Oil depletion is based on a lot of facts and data. Oil depletion is happening and it is constraining world oil supply. I shared some of the vast amount of data on Peak Oil.

I am not that big on conspiracy theories, but they are always entertaining. There are lots of opinions out there about why oil prices have doubled in the last year. There are also opinions that oil prices will collapse shortly and everything will be wonderful again. You are free to chose who to believe. I look for educated opinions based on scientific data.

Russia has the largest natural gas reserves in the world, so they are not worried about their energy supply at this time. They supply gas to many European countries.

Abiogenic oil may or may not be true - but who cares - because even if it is completely true, it is not stopping the depletion of world oil supply, as shown by the data.

As Jack Webb always said: "Just the facts, mam."

Doug

Unknown

whether you think abiotic oil exists or not, and it probably does, but it apparently does not in quantities that are useful to us.

-Abiotic theories have not found viable amounts of oil anywhere they expect to find oil, so only biotic source theories have been generating any predictions that actually result in found oil. that's pretty compelling, if you ask me.

-production is falling, just as predicted by other theories. Not that we can't produce any more; just that as time goes on, exploiting oil reserves gets harder and harder and more costly and the "low hanging fruit" dries up.

the arguement for your pet theory may have interesting aspects, but it's not helping if the goal is to allow us to continue using oil without regard for consumption level.

in other words, we still have to cut down on oil usage, because your little oil producing microbes aren't where they are supposed to be, and the ones that might be promising don't make enough to help.

ten minutes on wikipedia turn that up. you can spend more time from there reading the source research if you like too.

[Deleted User]

I didn't know that abiotic oil was my theory or a pet theory. It's not mine. Too many times I read so called facts from non-experts, yet who has verified these? I want to see the results of your physical research, Doug. If you do not have any actual data obtained on your own then it is merely someone else's. The most important element regarding information is the source of the information, not the information itself. Again, I have not done any actual well digging myself, but when I hear contradicting opinions on a subject, I wonder who is right. If everybody is thinking the same thing, then someone isn't thinking - General Patton

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John R. Hall

Drilling around here

Plans are in the works to ramp up oil drilling in my community here in suburban Detroit of all places. The field is supposed to yield 2,000 gallons a week, which probably is no big deal but it is worth a few bucks to the city. It makes me wonder how much more oil is out there that we can't drill for because of prohibitive costs and environmental issues.

My simplistic answer is to walk more and ride my bike to the grocery store. Now, if a few more million people did what I do...

[Deleted User]

I don't know how I got ownership of abiotic oil theory. I just mentioned that the Russians don't believe in the Peak oil theory, they believe that the oil wells are replenishable. Again, I'm not an expert but who here is? All we can do is regurgitate what we've read or heard. Afterall, scientists and experts have never ever been wrong before. But what makes me curious is when you have these scientists and experts contradicting each other. I'd like to know how you determine who is right? Magic 8 ball?

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jp_2

welcome to the real world

""""But what makes me curious is when you have these scientists and experts contradicting each other.""""

thats the way it really is, its the media that makes you think they(scientists) all agree.

Bill W@Honeywell

Natural gas will catch up...

Here in NJ, our largest gas utility just asked the Board of Public Utilities for a 20% hike in the price of natural gas. Last heating season, oil prices increased dramatically, and propane(LPG) went up even more. In areas where the gas pipeline doesn't go, people have few alternatives other than oil or LPG. Sure, if you live on a farm with a woodlot you can use wood as a heatsource, but many local jurisdictions are passing emissions ordinances that make traditional wood stoves illegal. Catalytic wood pellet stoves do meet the emission criteria, though. Coal is still used in some areas as well. If you have access to a supply of properly aged wood, a wood-fired boiler might be an alternative. Solar collectors are now viable for at least domestic hot water, but again, many local ordinances restrict their use. What can we do? Use existing energy more efficiently, until a balanced alternative can come on line, which will probably feature a mix of hydro, wind, coal, nuclear and solar.

Ken D.

Fuel oil

Bill, I'm in Pennsy. All along the Delaware River and the Schuylkill River and probably other waterways throughout the country, there are a large amount of wingdams left over from the old mill days. Pennsylvania recently passed legislation to remove these dams for who knows why? I wonder why they are not utilized to generate electricity or otherwise used to harness the hydro energy. These days, every little bit helps.

Bill W@Honeywell

Hi, Ken.

No idea why they would remove the dams. Small-scale hydro was the method of choice for generating electricity in the Adirondacks for many years. Dams at Franklin and Union Falls were WPA projects back in the 30's, and are still working today. A few large resorts had hydropower as well. Those installations in the'Dacks aren't exactly the "Hoover Dam"; they are maybe 100'wide by about 20 feet high. They have a penstock to supply the turbine, and a spillway for flood control. Where practical, small scale hydro is a great solution. Fish and water level issues can be surmounted if the systems are designed correctly.

Heather_5

Interesting Blurp

From the local paper:

http://www.star-telegram.com/104/story/651928.html

Bob Harper

alternative energy

Bill, I don't know of a pellet stove with a cat. They burn very clean and predictable and are a great green alternative. Right now, you can get a ton of pellets for about $250. Even if you burn round the clock, this would last the majority of homes 1-2 months, which is only a fraction of the price of gas, oil or LPG. Woodstoves have lead the way with EPA Phase II emissions since '92. There is a lot of R&D going on with central heaters using biomass fuels. There are pellet stoves that can burn up to 9 different biomass fuels such as switchgrass, which is very cheap and fast growing on otherwise poor land.

FYI, NPFA 58 is usually the std. enforced for LP gas including where to set the tank. There are several clearances, which deal with ignition sources, damage, lot lines,etc. You propane supplier will have this info. One big factor in which section of the std. applies is whether it is a DOT cylinder or an ASME container. See the rating plate on the tank.
HTH
Bob

Mark Hunt_6

Delaware water flows

NYC controls the flow from both the East and West branches of the Delaware river. The East branch is damned to form the Pepacton reservoir and the West branch is damned to form the Cannonsville reservoir.

The Pepacton is used for NYC drinking water while the Cannonsville is used to maintain minimum summer flow rates in the main Delaware. The way it was explained to me is that the folks getting their drinking water from the Mighty D down stream in Pa. do not have de-sal facilities and the brackish water needs to be held back.

Not sure why the old dams are being removed, but my gut tells me it has something to do with Striped Bass migration.

Mark H

Dave Yates (GrandPAH)_2

Drowning machines & an oil mfgrs response to oil efficiency

They're being targeted for removal due to several drownings. When caught in the overflow and subsequent churn, swimmers can't escape.

Here's an interesting read:

http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/prod_development/revisions/downloads/Adams_Mfg_Comments_Draft1.pdf

Bill W@Honeywell

I thought Vermont Castings had one...

If I remember right, it had 3-pass combustion and a catalytic "scrubber" as a final stage, but it's been a while since I looked at pellet stoves in detail, though. You are right, you can save some $$$ by using one if it is practical for you. The point I'm hoping to make is that there is no "magic bullet" that will solve our energy woes. It will take a lot of changes in the way we do things to clean up our act and use what we have more efficiently. If there ever was a time for "out of the box" thinking, it's now.

jp_2

can escape these

yes i agree pour over are very dangerous. BUT you can get out of these, you need to curl up in a ball, you'll sink to the bottom and get flushed out.

even white water kayakers stay away from pour over water falls, fun as they look.

Bill W@Honeywell

I checked it out...

Vermont Castings does make a catalytic, cordwood (not pellet) burning fireplace insert. Capable of heating a 2500 square foot home. Like most energy savers, more pricey to buy, less pricey to operate, assuming you have a supply of properly aged and sized firewood.

Ken D.

Fuel Oil

I spoke to the manager of a local lunber yard today, he says last winter was the best for his coal business in many years. Could it be Old King Coal is making a comeback?

Ken D.

Oil

With so much oil in US territory (Alaska, Pacific shelf, Gulf of Mexico as well as in the Continental US), not to muention coal, our problems should not be so severe. Now if only the special interests will allow the drilling.

Charlie from wmass

even if we do drill

a large percentage of the oil will be exported as it is today. The oil from Alaska is diverted to the japanese market not the continental one. I say leave it in so we are forced to go alternative. if it is tapped only big oil will make a profit we the people will still get hosed on the prices.