Where do we go from here?

Bob Sweet

Yes our govern. has let us down, yes the oil comp. are making lots of $$$, yes we should have been searching for alt. fuels long before now, yes we are all feeling the pains of being under the thumb of other countries supplying our oil.


O.K. this is a surprize?? Whats the quick fix....... there isn't one we can point the finger at whomever we want but the fact is it's gonna take some testicular fortitude to get out of this.


You want oil independance drill in ANWR, the coastal reef, plenty of oil to get us past our wheening off the perverbial teet until alt. fuels can become reality. How about nuclear power France has been using it for years, you want energy independance level the playing field.


It's like there is some magic solution out there that people think is going to suddenly appear, sorry it ain't there, atleast not yet.


After reading some of the implications on various threads it's as though the U.S. is at fault for the worlds woes, you gotta be KIDDING me. At 300 million + - of the worlds population, with all of our EPA regulations, we are a small fish in a big pond. I think we outta be thinking global.




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Robert O'Brien

The

only solution is conservation.Alt fuels will not be cheaper than the petroleum alternative.If we drilled in ANWR and everywhere else,and oil prices dropped by 50%.Do you think that windfall would be spent to become more efficient or would SUV sales skyrocket? The USA doesn't need a diet but a lifestyle change

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CC.Rob_4

hello?

The U.S. has about 5% of the world's population, but we are responsible for about 20% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. By any measure, we are energy hogs.

Yes, there are huge issues with energy and resource use by rapidly developing economies like China and India. But don't kid yourself that the U.S. isn't a big part of the problem.

There are other ways toward oil independence besides drilling. Is nuclear part of the future energy mix? Maybe.

You are absolutely correct that there is no magic fix. However, should it choose to do so, the U.S. could very well be a leader in developing the fixes needed.

What I have learned on the Wall about home heating definitely applies at the national and global scale: you want to use less resources and save money over the long term? The first thing you do is reduce your load. "Get the heat loss down by improving the envelope, THEN size your new boiler." Advice like that is nearly a mantra here. Same thing applies at larger scales.

Steve Ebels_3

Just had CNBC on while I was eating lunch

One of the industry experts had this to say when questioned about why crude prices are so high.

He said. "Worldwide oil production is now 5MMbpd less than demand." (that's LESS)

Cogitate on that statement for a moment or two and let it sink in.
It doesn't address whether the issues are because of speculation, terrorism, some two bit dictator trying to jerk our chain or whether it's just that there currently isn't enough on the market. Bottom line is that none of those issues have any real bearing on the fact that supply is currently behind demand.

CC.Rob_4

short vs. long term

Global oil production is essentially at capacity now. Can capacity be added? Sure. Saudi Arabia, among others, has plans to do so in the next year or two.

A better question might be "is this an oil bubble like the dot-com and real-estate bubbles?" The answer could arguably be yes. It has many of the same characteristics. [edit: but Paul Krugman at the NYT has an op-ed today that argues that it isn't a bubble. What he does conclude, however, is that in the long term we need to change our approach because the resource is growing scarcer and competition for it is only going to go up.]

The falling value of the U.S. dollar also plays a role, as many oil contracts are referenced to U.S. currency.

Ultimately, IMHO, what should guide our thinking is the long-term (decade to decades) trend in global energy use. Historical and present trends are most likely not sustainable. A sustainable future energy mix will require more of what we don't have enough of now, and less of what we do have now.

Mike T., Swampeast MO

I may sound like a broken record, but there is a solution--tap into the inexhaustible and limitless (at least by our current standards) mass/energy exchange constantly occurring (day or night) in our upper atmosphere.

Such should have happened LONG ago in the early 20th century, but the problem is that the energy involved is so concentrated and vast that the only way the original developer of the system saw to actually utilize the power was via resonance--not only of the entire atmosphere but the earth itself. While the devices required to utilize the energy have a definite associated cost, the problem was that there was no way to bill for the use of the "free" energy even though there is a definite--but comparatively tiny--cost (in energy and materials) to make it available.

While there [probably] is still no effective way to bill for the energy itself, our digital information age has given the way for the relatively minor costs of making the energy available. As I understand the system, low frequency energy "rides" on the carrier wave of the resonance of the earth itself with the lower and middle atmospheres acting as a carrier for extremely high frequency energy. It takes both to get either. Imagine if your ultra-high speed, world-wide, wireless communications and entertainment were the de-facto subsidy for a reasonable chunk of your home energy needs... Even better--what if the cost of actual production proved so reasonable that the entire cost could be born by advertisers... Don't forget that many, many, many people believed that "free" radio could NEVER be profitable.

Science fiction? Maybe. I do though know that the originator of the system was among the world's greatest geniuses who nearly single-handedly developed the entire system of electrical production, distribution and utilization that we STILL USE TODAY! His basic designs remain utterly flawless and only get more efficient as better materials and manufacturing techniques are developed.

Besides the fact that this would create chaos for many deeply entrenched industries, there is another potential problem: the originator of this idea became the modern model for the "mad scientist" and when he claimed that "I could crack the earth like an apple", he may have been correct.

Mike T., Swampeast MO

Yes, at present, the oil and other energy markets show very clear signs of being little more than a speculative bubble. Since for some reason oil is officially traded only in dollars, it would seem that the speculators are banking on either a catastrophic collapse of not only the dollar, but the U.S. economy or an expansion of war such at Iraq will look like a playground dispute.

I must agree with you Rob that unless some presently unknown or poorly understood mechanism exists for fairly rapid and natural replacement of the oil we pump from the ground that global demand will soon outstrip our ability to supply at anywhere near a reasonable cost (especially to those developing, poorer and highly populated countries whose demand, while increasing greatly, is still NOWHERE near our present per-capita energy consumption in the US.

A certain group behind our current President is certainly right in their belief that the next few decades (the rest of my life) will be influenced more than anything by energy. Do we want endless war--which only produces EXTRAORDINARY waste--or do we want to take the lead and develop energy sources that allow us to continue our generally wonderful lifestyle without relying on governments who--not so secretly--hate us?

ALH_4

Production vs Conservation

It is absolutely true that we cannot "produce" our way out of this problem. We can only conserve and produce as much from alternative sources as possible. Without conservation, we have no chance of averting an energy crisis like the world has never seen.

Chance of the world conserving to the extent necessary before energy prices have hit crisis levels? None. Who will feel the greatest effect of high energy prices? The largest energy consumer, aka the United States. Our entire way of life is based on petroleum. It goes much deeper than just fuel. Who will be hit the hardest? The middle class, or what's left of it.

As energy prices rise, we have less disposable income to devote to weaning ourselves from fossil fuels. The problem is that we do not feel motivated to conserve until we can no longer afford to consume, and at that point it is too late. This is why I advocate governmental intervention. Unfortunately we currently have a government that has no apparent plan for the future other than "smoke 'em if you got 'em". I am hopeful that this will change next January, but we have a long way to go.

Mike T., Swampeast MO

I could not agree more Andrew, but the current "alternatives" are pure-d BS because we're either trying to turn the HIGHLY diffuse SURFACE solar energy into concentrated energy or we have the equally ridiculous idea that we can fuel, feed and build the worlds' need for food AND fuel via biomass.

We need a UNIVERSAL source of energy and all it takes is the realization that you are a part of me, the sun is a part of the earth and the sun is a part of the universe. INDIVIDUALLY WE ALL UNDERSTAND THIS IF ONLY WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO SEE!

Larry (from OSHA)

Nikola Tesla

I eagerly await a modern day Tesla to unleash the limitless energy that was theorized so many years ago. Since I'm not holding my breath, I have replaced my boiler and improved that part of our carbon footprint, and I'm thinking about uncovering the old bike which gets better mileage than the car. As far as biomass goes, let me know when you've got a lot of switch grass and we'll start fermenting. We've got a bunch of ethanol plants here sucking up the corn that could go for food. I think the reality is that until Exxon and the like can find a way to charge for Tesla type energy, we are stuck with what we've got.

Larry

Bob Sweet

Hello?....Hello

I'm not in denile about the fact that the U.S. consumes 25% of the worlds oil or that we produce 20% of the green house gas emissions and that we need to conserve, I've built my business on that principle. Your preaching to the choir here my friend.

I would assume you know that China has surpassed the U.S. in green house gas by 8% without even cracking their potential, give them 10 years you'll read a WHOLE different story.


We can ALL blame the "current" administation for our problems but this problem started decades ago. I stand by it, you want oil independance start drilling this should have happened years ago but it didn't and here we are.

I'm all for alt fuels. just dont see anything on the horizon that can replace oil, not yet. Still hoping.



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CC.Rob_6

then we agree on a lot

Looks like we agree on everything except that the answer is drilling.

I agree that the fault is not entirely due to the last 8 years of "energy policy" or whatever you want to call it. It did start a long time ago.

But consider a couple problems with starting decades ago:

a) the demand didn't exist;

b) the technology didn't exist (e.g., deepwater rigs like those on the continental slope in the Gulf of Mexico); and

c) the prices didn't exist to support a) or b) as a profitable way to do business.

Like many things, it's complicated, has a long history, and there's no easy fix.

Today, the issues with environmental permitting and impacts, time to develop plays with high-tech, the risk involved, etc. make a rapid push toward increased production unlikely.

I would argue that reducing usage and developing alternative fuels has more potential, even in the shorter term (decade) to help than more drilling to achieve a better, more sustainable energy mix.

Bob Gagnon plumbing and heating

We can point the finger at ourselves

For not making solar thermal more efficient and inexpensive. After watching how much my solar system collects, I think we could easily provide all the heat and hot water for a super insulated house. I think solar thermal, solar pv and wind are our best alternatives. We should all be trying harder.

Thanks, Bob Gagnon

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Doc Radiant

For those of you waiting...

...for an "energy solution" from our government, you're in for a very long wait. I have accepted the fact that our government has grown so self-serving and corrupt that it is beyond repair. The next Bozo (or Bozoess) in the White House will be no better than the one we have now, and may even be worse. Of course, the double-digit IQers in congress are just as bad. I often wonder what these losers would do if they ever had to hold down a real job...

The solution, my friends, is in OUR hands (as in "we the people").

So without having a blueprint to save us all, this is what I'm doing to save myself;

1. I have learned that "driving for gas mileage" can increase my MPG by 18% over just driving like everyone else on the road.

2. I have learned that by reducing thermostat setting from 68 degrees to 60 degrees in the winter and using less hot water, we can cut our fuel use by nearly 40%.

3. I have learned that by using energy-efficient lighting and turning stuff off when it's not being used, we can reduce our electrical use by over 35%.

Imagine if everyone in this country did the same? It's not that difficult...

When I have the money to do so, I will be;

1. Buying a pair of all-electric (or "plug-in hybrid") vehicles

2. Installing photovoltaics on the house/garage roof to charge electric vehicle #1 while I drive electric vehicle #2 to work

3. Maybe even a small wind turbine to do the same

4. Install a solar DHW system in my home

5. Install a wood-pellet appliance as back-up heat

To fix our terminally screwed-up government, all we need to do is collectively not pay taxes (the IRS can't throw ALL of us in jail!). I guarantee you that we would have their undivided attention at that point, and the power to make them accountable for their (in)actions.

Big change can happen if we simply make a collective effort. The question is, do we have the intestinal fortitute to do so?

ALH_4

Responsibility

I don't think any of us have delusions of government fixing the problem, but government (not just federal) can certainly make the climate more favorable for energy conservation and development of alternative energy sources.

I agree that this change is going to happen on an individual basis. I am not sure that I see utilities being able to produce energy in the quantities necessary to serve everyone without interruption. One thing I like about that is that it makes each of us responsible for our energy production as well as our consumption.

Our government is our collective effort. If that fails, then we are not going to be able to come together in some other way to make these changes.

CC.Rob_4

hear, hear!

Agreed. One of the reasons that utility companies are participating in efficiency and rebate programs is because they see the need to reduce the load to avoid service interruptions.

In MA, the utilities sponsor a number of rebate and incentive programs toward that end. NSTAR (through a MassSave home energy audit) recently gave me a half-dozen really nice GE dimmable CFLs for our recessed cans -- the last remaining non-CFLs in the house. I was holding out for LEDs but they are a few years away from solving the lumens/watt issue for that kind of lighting.

Keyspan/NationalGrid will give me a rebate up to $1500 for installing a SDHW system. I hope to take them up on that later this year.

Could they do more? Sure. But it's a start.

As for government, for starters I'd like to see more aggressive incentives than the $2k fed tax credit and the $1k MA tax credit. Help get the ROI numbers consistently in the 4-9 year range and stuff like SDHW (ROI already generally in the 4-7 yr range where I live) and PV will really take off.

Doc Radiant

"I don't think any of us have delusions of government fixing the problem, but government (not just federal) can certainly make the climate more favorable for energy conservation and development of alternative energy sources."

In the form of tax relief, that would be true. But if history is any indicator, anything they do offer will be too little too late.

But just for some "far-fetched" thinking along these lines, it would be great if there were tax incentive for;

1. Companies to develop/encourage work-at-home programs for those positions that are suited for it.

2. Companies to utilize "webinars" and online conferencing to minimize business travel

3. Companies to provide transportation services (company mini-bus) to and from work

4. Home owners to install energy-efficient appliances

5. Electric utilities to expand net metering policy

..and many more.

The problem is no crook (I mean politician) is going to give up any of the money they steal (I mean tax) from us, so these effective measures will never be offered.

That won't however stop me from trying to insulate myself from their greed and incompetence. I will continue on my path of reduced consumption, to which I can go much deeper than I already have. Get everyone on board with that mindset and the problem is well on it's way to being solved.

[Deleted User]

\"Our government

is our collective effort." Not hardly. Government looks out to perpetuate and grow Government. You and I are only the cash cows/steers (bulls not allowed) that enable them.

Do we really want Government (which is directly responsible for stopping known energy development) taking more of our $$, imposing more regulations, choosing which energy alternatives to pursue, & which political contributors will receive those development $$? Why not let what's left of market forces guide us in deciding our own energy future?

Most of us will evolve and prosper. Those who chose not to should not be subsidized by the rest. Or, is that too Darwinian?

Doc Radiant

Ron, exactly - Big Government is not part of the solution, it's a HUGE part of the problem! And FWIW, I too subscribe to the "Darwinian" philosophy of competition and letting the best man/company win. Unfortunately, Big Government often gets in the way of this natural process.

The most powerful economic force is consumer demand. Lower demand for energy, energy prices fall. Raise demand for energy efficient homes, cars, appliances, etc. and companies will step up to fill the demand.

I have reached the "pissed off" point with the cost of energy and I'm "on a mission" to do something about it in my own life. I hope more will join me in adapting this mindset.

ALH_4

Proactive or Reactive?

I'm not saying our government works efficiently or well. I'm just saying that *theoretically* our government is our collective effort to provide for the needs of our country. Key word is theoretically.

I like the free market idea, but that also only works in theory. The market will react, but only after energy prices have reached crisis levels. Should we only look at alternative energy only when it makes financial sense, or should we look at alternative energy and conservation when it makes sense as a human race? Which company is going to sell conservation? We need to tell our government that we want to be proactive and promote alternative energy production as well as energy conservation as a society before the crisis arrives. As much as I may disagree with Al Gore's theories, I do appreciate the effect he has had on the general psychology of our nation when it comes to energy consumption. At least people are talking "green", which is a huge change from a few years ago.

I think the balance is somewhere in the middle. We do not need government dictating our every move, but we do need our government to help us point our country in the right direction before it is too late.

Doc Radiant

Definitely reactive...

...politicians only react in a way to get themselves more perks and re-elected.

We, the American people, got OURSELVES into this with our excessive consumption. Common sense dictates we will extract ourselves by reducing consumption through conservation and altering our buying habits.

The purpose of government, as envisoned by the founders of this republic, is to REPRESENT the will of the people. They are our servants, not the other way around. By taking collective action, our will will be imposed and change will occur. Government cannot possibly "point our country in the right direction" - that is OUR collective job to do!

Through all the complaining about the sorry state of our government, we can only blame ourselves.

ALH_4

Politicians

I agree completely that our government is the way it is because we let it get that way. Ultimately we are in control of the politicians who represent us. One thing I am glad to hear is the presidential candidates actually talking about energy as an issue.

So when will we start to hold our politicians accountable? How do we do that? Say we elect one great politician, but because he is surrounded by ineptitude and corruption he can get nothing done. How do we separate the wheat from the chaff on election day?

I agree with you on the impotence of our government at this point. We don't have a free market when it comes to energy, and we never will. How can solar compete with oil when oil has such massive subsidies that go so deep that they are nearly incomprehensible? I don't see a functioning free market there.

Create a free market by getting rid of subsidies for oil, and other sources of energy will start looking very attractive very quickly. However, if we go that route, we will cause a massive economic depression that will cripple our economy for a very long time. I am not sure that would result in a net benefit in our lifetime. What might be a little smoother is if we shift the subsidies for oil slowly to the alternative energy industry. Yeah, I don't see our "representatives" in our government doing that either.

So here we are, left to "do the right thing" on our own because of a complete failure of our government to do anything about our nearly nonexistent energy policy. I agree that in reality it will ultimately be the individual that drives this movement. It could go a lot more smoothly if we could come together as a nation and work toward a common goal, but I don't see that happening on any large scale.

I actually think we agree much more than we disagree on this issue.

Doc Radiant

"I actually think we agree much more than we disagree on this issue."

I believe that is indeed the case!

Despite my distrust/disgust of government, I have great hope that American small business entrepreneurialism, innovation and the will to "get it done" will make the difference. In a way, the higher the cost of fossil fuels go, the better - the quicker known solutions (conservation, energy efficient lifestyles and devices, alternative energy sources such as solar and wind for the home, etc.) will be embraced by the public and demanded of our elected representatives.

The first step - the one that doesn't cost a cent but could make a HUGE difference right now - is learning how to conserve and making it a top priority.