$4,00 oil ????

Jeff_116

From the projections I've seen, I think conversions from oil to natural gas (if available) make financial sense now - especially with an older (15 years+) oil furnace. Anyone seeing this

Steve Ebels_3

A couple years ago I started a thread here on the topic of $4.00/gallon oil. I remember that we had a pretty good discussion on the topic at the time but not much else about it in particular. My main thought was that at about $4.00 per gallon, people would begin to change their thinking as far as alternative fuels and heat sources are concerned. I think we also talked about whether people, when faced with that price would be forced to change some of their habits. I know we as a company are examining every way possible to reduce our fuel use because our fuel expenses went up 100% from 2006 to 2007. That is a chunk of change that really messed with our bottom line.

I'm thinking that there are a lot of my customers who are feeling the pinch and will spend the summer "digging out" from last winters fuel bills. Only to turn around and face the same thing or worse again nest winter. Lot's of them were faced with $1,000 a month when just a couple years ago they were paying $3-400. It will probably worse according to the link I have below. Oil at $200/barrel equates to fuel oil and gasoline at $5-6.00 a gallon or higher and LP in the $4.00+ range. If what that analyst is saying actually happens, I think that customers who have the money yet to make changes will want to do so immediately likely leading to shortages of some products in high demand. The customers or consumers who don't have the shekels to make changes will be living in 50* houses in an effort to cut back on their bills. Either way is not pretty.

What are the rest of you guys hearing from customers as far as requests for energy saving products. Any up tick in solar water heating? How about wood or pellet fired equipment? Are any of you getting into alternative fuel appliances like wood or pellet boilers?

Just curious to see what's happening elsewhere........here in Michigan it's like the whole state just went to sleep business wise. Not much going on here in the northern part of the state except for wood fired equipment.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080506/24486214.html

jp_2

sad part

its very costly to add insulation to existing structures, sure the attic its easy, but thats only part of it.

lower income people tend to live in poorly insulated houses.

i want to know at what cost per gallon of gas will people start driving under 65MPH? I drive 60 the biggest semi's pass me like am in first gear? do they really know the cost of driving fast?

Alexia_4

Some "experts" are saying the contrary. They're saying there isn't any supply issues so the spike will eventually correct itself. As prices rise poeple conserve, surplus grows, bubble pops. I guess it's a lot easier to say than do. I'd be totally destroyed with $1000 heat bills. Switching heat sorces would be real inviting. Neighbor's tree. Old shed....

Glen

A recent poll -

in the Calgary Herald asked the question "if fuel hit $1.50 liter - would you consider ditching the SUV?" - 56% replied no. And while I adhere to posted speed suggestions - I am definitely the slowest driver in Alberta! 130 KPH is the norm!

A.J.

It will be a painfull transition

We are dong buisness in Western Pa. a old coal mining town back in the day. Energy prices have gone up so fast people's incomes have not had time to adjust and they often have to make a choice between food,medicine or heat. With electric prices scheduled to start to rise in 09 I just don't know what to tell our customers anymore.
Some our going back to coal since this region has so much of it but that is not an option for alot of the elderly in the area. Some are going to outside wood boilers if they are out in the country side. Most of our air conditioning sales are going in as heat pumps now. I do see some people investing in new equipment but not as many as you would think. Do they not have the money to invest in new equipment or just don't care?
I do have two radiant jobs scheduled to go in this summer as geothermal radiant so people are starting to think about efficency and long term payback of a high performance heating systems.
The next ten or fithteen years should be very interesting.

Unknown

just another ideological rant

Inflation, economic stagnation and a tightening of credit takes efficiency investment right off the table for many.

It's too bad leadership in this country didn't have the courage to confront this issue sooner (decades ago). Our dependance on cheap energy is staggering, considering the inevitable and seemingly eminent terminal decline of the worlds energy resources. No amount of positive thinking or stock market magic can make this go away. Did it have to play out this way? I do hope this is just some kind of economic blip, and not a reckoning with reality. But If we get a second chance, will we just blow it? If we can bring back prosperity, will we make long term investments required. Can we voluntarily do what is necessary to transition 6 billion into a post petroleum world?

I think a word we are going to become familiar is curtailment, efficiency even if we could afford it may no longer be enough.

Andrew Hagen_2

Agree

In my opinion, that hits the nail right on the head. I do think this is a reckoning with the reality of world energy demand.

mtfallsmikey

A.J's got it, I think

Most working class folks are stuck between a rock and a hard place...can't afford to pay the high heating bills, or new equipment /upgraded insulation, windows, etc. eiether because of rising food and /or gas prices. A very vicious cycle of woe.

FATBOY040575

Fuel/energy prices

The only thing I have to say is LOOK AT THE PROFITS these companies are making, is there REALLY a shortage or cost that have jumped so high to produce the product it requires higher prices, the only way to slow or stop raising prices is to shorten the demand. let the fuel companies sit on some of their product for a while, try to only drive when needed and lets see what happens. When the CFOs go under fire for losses in profits because the public is not buying their products at high prices, maybe one of two things will happen: 1. prices go down to where the should be or 2. the overpaid CFOs get fired and now the fuel companies are not so straped for cash because they are not paying millions a year to their cfos/
Just a thought.

Jim Erhardt_3

Good replies...

One thing everybody can do right now is conserve - and it can make a big difference!

We used to keep our house 68 degrees in the winter, sometimes boosting it a bit more when we wanted some extra warmth. We would go through about 1,000 gallons a year that way, including domestic hot water. We now keep the thermostat no higher than 62 and consciously conserve hot water - we're now down to under 600 gallons a year. At today's fuel prices, the money saved can buy all of the warm clothing you would ever need to be comfortable! The funny thing is, 68 degrees now seems stifling.

I drive a 2007 Subaru Forester XT - a 240 HP turbocharged station wagon that can drink gas as fast as a V8 if driven without regard to fuel economy. Driving at 75 - 80 MPH with traffic on the highway yeilds 22 MPG. Keeping the same car under 65 and staying out of boost (driving easy) increases fuel efficency to 27 MPG. And since turbocharged cars require premium gas, "driving easy" is MUCH easier on the wallet! For my daily 50 mile round trip commute to work, I am seriously considering a smallish motorcycle (500 cc) for use in warm weather.

I have to agree that this is not about lack of supply - it's about the suppliers driving up the price. At $4 per gallon, I have finally hit the "pissed off" point and now place fuel economy at the top of the list. If I had the opportunity, I would buy an all-electric car (Subaru will introduce one in the next few years) and install a wind turbine in the back yard and photovoltaic array on the roof. Then the suppliers of fossil fuels (oil-rich middle east and Big Oil) can kiss my you-know-what.

One thing is for absolutely certain - it all starts with us as individuals to bring about change.

Paul Fredricks_6

Same here

We keep, and have kept, our house at 60-62 degrees in the winter. The kids grew up this way and walk around in t-shirts. Our house is 90 years old with the original drafty double-hungs (that we are looking to replace), blow in fiberglass in the walls, not really enough insulation in the roof (no room). We are about 2400 sq ft with 2 teenagers. Our annual oil usage is 579 gallons.

We have a new Mazda 3 that we can get about 24 mpg around town with my wife driving, more if I drive. I watch the on board computer to try and maximize milage.

We also have a 96 Suburban with a 42 gallon tank. Painful at the pumps. We drive it rarely, mostly to move stuff or for big trips. I think we get about 15 on the highway, 9+ around town. Ouch.

Alexia

Being in the apartment community business and working in northwestern PA, I know two things. Electric is currently relatively inexpensive. Heat pump - AC combo units are very common at least within apartment communities. A spike in electric would hit hard.

Living in Western NY I envy those under Penelec. I pay over twice as much under National Grid, less than 30 miles away. How much is copper wire? I'll just run it up the Lake Erie shore.

joel_19

stuff to think about

food for thought.

guys somebody said,"fuel prices really hurt our company bottom line" Ummm why? Why haven't you raised your prices to compensate? every other buisness does. How many suppliers of yours are charging for deliveries when they didn't used to or are charging more?? You must do the same not rising your prices makes our industry weaker and it is plenty wimpy already.

people can afford the new equipment you just have to offer them financing show them the monthly payments and savings.We quote monthly payments on virtually every job and it works!! many times these days you can wipe out a big chunk of the payment with fuel savings and they need new stuff anyhow so you only need to save the Difference and that's not tuff to do.

With high fuel prices we can really make a difference in peoples lives and in our countries dependancy on foreign fuels and lower our carbon emmisions.

The combined forces of the green movement, a war in oil country,and high fuel prices have presented our industry with it's greatest oppertunity in probably 20 years!!!!!!!!

Now lets go get some!!!!! create boundless joy for customers and for you!!!!!! My glass is half full but it's Walker Blue not Canadian Club.

You have the answers you know the questions raise your prices like everybody has already done to you don't let our industry get any weaker there is no reason to!! You can do it!

Tony_23

Changes

I just switched my main service van to synthetic oil. First tank of fuel thru it I gained 10% in mileage. With the costs of oil changes being the same at a 3:1 interval difference, any increase in MPG is a savings.
Now, if we could just get rid of the HP-robbing ethanol in our NYS gasoline I might get to 15-16 MPG in my E-350.

Unknown

Ethanol is a real drag, even if it helps with cleaner combustion, if it hurts millage in and we are burning more gas because of it, is the net pollution reduction of any real significance?

I have also noticed a loss of power and fuel economy with the ethanol cocktails.

Roland_13

Gas prices FYI


Nation City Price in USD Regular/Gallon
Netherlands Amsterdam $6.48
Norway Oslo $6.27
Italy Milan $5.96
Denmark Copenhagen $5.93
Belgium Brussels $5.91
Sweden Stockholm $5.80
United Kingdom London $5.79
Germany Frankfurt $5.57
France Paris $5.54
Portugal Lisbon $5.35
Hungary Budapest $4.94
Luxembourg $4.82
Croatia Zagreb $4.81
Ireland Dublin $4.78
Switzerland Geneva $4.74
Spain Madrid $4.55
Japan Tokyo $4.24
Czech Republic Prague $4.19
Romania Bucharest $4.09
Andorra $4.08
Estonia Tallinn $3.62
Bulgaria Sofia $3.52
Brazil Brasilia $3.12
Cuba Havana $3.03
Taiwan Taipei $2.84
Lebanon Beirut $2.63
South Africa Johannesburg $2.62
Nicaragua Managua $2.61
Panama Panama City $2.19
Russia Moscow $2.10
Puerto Rico San Juan $1.74
Saudi Arabia Riyadh $0.91
Kuwait Kuwait City $0.78
Egypt Cairo $0.65
Nigeria Lagos $0.38
Venezuela Caracas $0.12

Source: air-inc.com

Tony_23

The kicker

Ethanol causes more fuel to be burned, but I don't think it's cleaner as a blend. With the MTBE blend I got 2 MPG more. If I get far enough into PA for 2 tankfuls in a row I'm back to the old mileage.

Gas has gone up here, as elsewhere, astronomically in the last 2-3 weeks. Most places 3.77/gal. One place 3.85. Diesel has gone down from 4.61 to 4.49.

Lots of full size PU's w/gas engines for sale, NO diesels for sale under 15k, and they're junk...

Roland_13

More recent prices...

Norway $ 8.67
Netherlands $ 8.52
Belgium $ 8.36
Germany $ 8.06
United Kingdom $ 7.91
Italy $ 7.68
France $ 7.46
Spain $ 7.34
Poland $ 6.55
Japan $ 5.19
Brazil** $ 4.14
United States $ 3.10
Russia $ 3.03
Kazakhstan $ 2.73
Mexico* $ 2.46
China $ 2.27
Nigeria $ 2.23
Saudi Arabia $ 0.45
Iran $ 0.42
Venezuela* $ 0.11

Weezbo

when you originally posted that...

oil was a whopping 1.79 or so now its 4.44...

It is not like the ECO Stratus wouldn't be a good thing in the shelves of every tech van in the nation..

The devil is in the details when it comes to energy effectiveness and efficiency.. To me the last time copper prices were headed up at the time i think i mentioned that China had basically bought the entire copper production of the mines of Chile or Peru at the time..

it is likely our country will help Colombia heavily over the next few years as there is the potential of considerable development ... if i remember i asked Dan , if he might have the board members of N>E>R>L> come to the site for some discussion on the Ethanol "research" as my thought is that while they may very well have the people in D.C. and the remainder of the nation Buffaloed , i tend to think that our community would not be so quick to "bite the bait".

do you remember that the price of gasoline was like 5.80 on the Island of Bermuda at or around that time?

we are in the comfort business Mental, physical and financial.. well, i have to think we need to PUMP UP the Financial side of comfort with coherent design and control strategies and the Home as a complete environment not a bunch of parts and pieces of various "Qualities, systems, "Features"

..someone mentioned at the time something to the effect that the general populace was not particularly aware nor did any one seem to care as was evidenced by the "McMansions" well,s , last winter the dig on holders of those properties was significant enough to at least make them Aware that energy use certainly Does have a price...

My thought is Go Solar when ever and where ever possible,

(Not because of all the cool pictures in Caleffi's Idronics #3) *~/:) buh because the pay off will be a great deal zippier

Toddid Goldsmith's

$4.00 oil

Lets elect a president who has never grossed more than 50,000.00 bucks a year. Have him or her use their own truck, if they can afford one, to move their stuff in the the white house.Go pick up the kids, pay the day care lady, go get something to eat, pay for it themselves, go back to their new house, turn off the lights when they leave the room, cause they have to pay the electric bill themselves, and when the first bill for heating that place comes due,make that family pay for it. Isn't that the way it goes with most of us? What would be wrong with that?

jim s_2

Please

name one politician who has to worry about things the way the average family does.

Especially the lifers in DC.

A.J.

Am I correct ?

I friend of mine who works for a dealership told me not to long ago that it takes one and ahalf gallons of oil to make one gallon of ethalnol,is that right ?

Unknown

Natural gas is the energy input for these distilleries. With all of the energy inputs on the agricultural side of corn production transportation etc. Many claim the EROEI (energy invested on energy returned). is not much better that 1:1. Making these comprehensive analysis is not simple and there is considerable controversy as to the "real" cost of ethanol. I think your figure is probably exaggerating things a bit though.

Steve Ebels_3

Politics and politicians

I don't think they are in the drivers seat anymore. The main thing that "they" and that means pretty much ALL of 'em, Dems and Repubs alike, since 1973, is that they saw this coming and didn't do anything about it. No measures at all to prepare for this situation, no meaningful effort to encourage alternatate energy like solar, wind or bio, no incentive to conserve or explore, nothing. After the 73 Arab oil embargo it should have been as plain as the nose on their face that we were subject to the whims of other countries.

Now we're sitting on a knife edge of supply and demand worldwide. Just Google world oil supply and oil production and you'll see what I mean. Production has been flat since 2005 while demand has gone up and will keep on going up with more countries than ever needing oil. The difference between most of the world and the US is that they have cash while all we can do is mortgage more of our country to foreign investors and governments. They........and we the people, can deny it all we want, try to point the finger somewhere else but those are the facts. Our own government body, the Energy Information Agency, that is supposed to estimate fuel reserves, production and costs is constantly having to amend their forecasts upward for price and downward for production. You'd think they would "get it" after a while.


Sure some of this is speculation but ask yourself why the players are speculating in the first place. It's not just oil, look at rice, wheat and corn. Even coal has gone up a bunch. The world is just coming to the point where resources are being consumed faster than they can be replaced with our current infrastructure. Maybe with any infrastructure. It defies any logic I possess to assume that economies and population can continue to grow worldwide without a breakdown of some kind.


I'll never forget Dr David Suzuki's speech at the Viessmann 25th anniversary celebration in Waterloo. He made the statement that the only things that grow constantly are things like a virus or cancer and they eventually kill the host. A human presence that grows constantly and consumes ever more resources will eventually die just like the cancer and virus when the host is no longer able to support their "lifestyle".


We gotta' change some habits and it's not going to be fun or very pretty. It's called living within your means.
Blame the politicians yes, but the change has to be driven by we the people demanding higher efficiency, better conservation, wiser use of limited resources and lot's of research into what's next.

I'll go on record right now and say in just a couple years gas and oil at $3.00 per gallon will be remembered as the good old days.

PS: I hope I'm dead wrong about all this.

joel_19

Dr suzuki

He was great that's a guy that wether you agree with him or not has gotta be just fabulous to have at your cocktail party.

Joe Brix

Where's the bio-diesel?

We see the large expansion made with Ethanol. But I don't see
any big push for bio-diesel. 2 or 3 years ago it was pricier
then straight heating oil. But at $4/gal why isn't anyone stepping up to the plate and start ramping up production?
I think at these price levels, someone should require a 10% bio-diesel blend as most states have done for ethanol in gasoline.

Maine Doug_73

I think the McDonalds effect

is heavily imbedded in the political system. As in everyday life, we expect the same response from the elected and so "they" respond accordingly. The McDonalds effect is pervasive, like a cancer, and we have becomed conditioned. We like the response of driving up to a window, mumbling into a box, driving around to a window and getting instant gratification with the delivery of fat and carbs.

The ATM is the instant cash machine. 23 checkout lanes at WalMart mean no standing in lines (maybe not anymore). Email and Texting and Cell phones expect instant responses. Ever get an email and then a phone call asking did you get the email. And to the yes response they say well arn't you gonna answer. As the McDonalds effect spread, the demand to drive around to the instant gratification window for everything spread.

Fix this, fix that, I don't want to wait in line. And so the elected ones promised to have it done by tomorrow. It does not matter what the long term consequences are, that is not on my radar at the moment. Build me a new window to drive up to and build me a pretty all lit up menu board so I can holler into the box without thinking. What, I have to make a choice for 30 years from now? No thanks, I'll drive to KFC across the street.

So we now have the best government money can buy. But it only feeds those that bought it and that is a very very small percentage of the people it claims to represent. The rest of us still have to drive up to the window. Push one for bridge maintenance, two for energy policy, three for new pork loaded farm subsidy. Do you want fries with that?

Steve Ebels_3

As of noon today

Crude hit $127/bbl. That's a raw cost of about $3.23 /gl. Now add refining, transportation and shipping, state and federal taxes plus a couple dollars profit for everyone along the way and you're looking at $5.00 fuel and gasoline right now. Wait til that stuff trickles through the pipeline. If you heat with oil or LP gas it puts the cost per million btu's at nearly $40.00. That's equivalent to a heat loss of only 41,000 btu's per hour. Do the math for a typical 70-80,000 btu house. Tain't pretty. Something is going to give.

A.J.

Now I'm scared

Looks like I will be taking some money out of the family savings to fill up before it gets any higher.
These withdraw pains are going to hurt but hopefully we will kick this addiction and get our act together. I just hope that somebody out there is as smart as we all think we are and can figure a way out of this mess, that ever the answer.

[Deleted User]

I've heard that it will be around $200 a barrel by the end of 2008. Let's hope not.

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Doc Radiant

Warm Clothes

Break out the L.L. Bean catalog!

We went no higher than 60 degrees this past winter, looks like we'll need to drop to 55 this year. Funny thing is after we got used to 60 degrees, 68 felt stifling!

A.J.

I agree

After I have been out all day and get back to the house it seems HOT compared to that I have been in all day.
My biggest problem besides oil prices is that Angela has no blood. She is going to have to layer up this winter.

Dale

Fuel cost compared

Just got the insurance bill, homeowners, for a place with wood heat, also elect. baseboard. $1100 and forget about shopping around, as soon as the ins. man sees the wood burner some of them won't even quote. Larger house I have with nat gas is $340 for insurance. My monthly fuel ( gas and electric ) in So. WI is $165 per month on the budget billing, I had a blower door test done, sealed, insulated, rebuilt all the windows ect. House is typical track house, 40 years old, so it is possible to use less fuel. I am afraid the fuel cost will drive dangerous wood burning which will drive insurance costs up even higher.