Is this Ok?

Mark Hunt

a slow boat TO China......not FROM.

Thanks Leo....but the stuff originates from across the other ocean.

Guess I better stop putting all my eggs in one basket.

Mark H



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Mark Hunt

Curious


If you ordered material and were told that it is back ordered for one month........would you get mad?

Not a supply house issue, a manufacturer issue.

I guess I need someone to tell me why I should just let this pass and take what is given to me. Be glad I even got that. Understand THEIR side.

For the brave soul that tries to do just that, stop now.

Mark H

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Leo

It takes

It takes time for the boat to get here from China.

Leo

Darrell

I don't know...it takes me three supply houses every day to stock my truck with hard to find items like, boilers relief valves, Taco power heads, Filltrol 109's. You know, the really odd stuff that no supply house can be expected to have in stock! But, I get in trouble when I demonstrate any frustration when I'm told, "We can have it here tomorrow by noon." At twenty below...that just ain't soon enough.

ScottMP

And its

Really Slow !!

Mark I just heard the same thing from a supplier. It may even be the same manufacture.

What are these guys thinking ??

Scott

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Bob Sweet

It's tough

when you really like a product, to just up and use another brand, but sometimes it has to be done.

Being able to turn and walk out of a supply house, and have an alternative product is not a bad thing. imo. I like to think it keeps them on there toes. Maybe they dont care, but I hope they understand my point of view.


I can see it taking 2-3 days or even a week in some cases, but a month no way, I'd find an alternative.



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Paul Rohrs_5

Are we talking about....

1/2" copper fittings (A items) or the specialty boiler that we contractors and wholesalers only sell occasionaly?

No excuse for running out of zone pumps, zone valves, expansion tanks, flanges, relays, standard size boilers, etc.

I spent 17 years on the wholesale side dealing with manufacturers and the answers varied a lot about lead times.

I always wanted to know the root cause of the delay. Was it because they just cant get raw material, or did they just set up a "National Account" with a big-box company.

More info is needed.

PR

Perry_3

Is it the Mfr... the Supply House... Or a combination of both?

Very few items are in constant production. Most items are on a production cycle. The Mfr works on product A, then switches to product B, then C, back to A, then D, E, back to A, B, C, A, D, E.... or some such process (in this case product A has at least 3 times the demand of products B,C,D, and E). The Mfr usually will leangthen, or shorten, the periods of production for each product as appropriate to meet existing or expected demand.

Over the last 20 years many of the manufacturers have stopped keeping large warehouses of all of their products as supply houses kept enough to cover most normal schedule lapses of production.

When a ballance of Mfr and Supply house inventories are properely matched to demand no one ever runs out and no one ever gets stuck with really old inventory.

Of course - in the last several years I have gotten the impression that many supply houses are reducing their inventories. Reduce it too far and they can no longer cover the regular production schedule.

An alternate issue is when demand for a product goes up - it creates the same problem. Both the Mfr and the warehouses run out before the next production schedule for the product.

What some Mfr's do is create a warehouse tracking system so that if Supplier 1 has unsold stock it can be shipped to Supplier 2 half way across the country who is out. Unfortunately - I don't think I've seen any such thing for heating boilers (and if my guess is correct on your situation - I'll bet the boiler you are looking for is in stock in Milwaukee; and elsewhere).

In some cases shortages are created by the use of specialty alloys. For example 316T is a specialty alloy. As such it is only produced for a single manufacturer. I use a product called SeaCure - another specialty SS alloy that is only used by one manufacturer.

In cases like these you are limited to how SS production is done. Nickle, and some other alloying elements, tend to easily saturate the refractory in a melt furnace. It then can release back into any alloy that has less of it in - creating control problems on the chemistry of the alloy (and in many cases destroying the next batch). Thus, for steel alloys their is a fixed production schedule for a melt furnace. After relining the melt furnace that alloy with the lowest nickle content batches are done first. Then the next higher nickle content, etc, etc, to the highest nickle content. At which point the melt furnace refractory is tore out, the melt furnace relingned, and the process starts over. Thus, SeaCure and 316T can only be made at one point in the SS melt furnace production cycle. Now you can make as many batches as you want at that point - but once they go to a higher nickle content your next opportunity may be 3 to 5 months away (and SeaCure usually gets 2 to 4 batches at a time depending on demand; and then has to wait 3 to 4 months for the next oportunity). Oh, each batch for the large alloying melt furnaces is approximately 100 US tons. So how often do you need 2 million Lbs of a specialty SS alloy. Now I am sure that there are smaller melt furnaces available (perhaps down to 10 tons - at increasing cost per Lb). But the Mfr has to really plan well on how much metal they need so that they can get it in appropriate time from the alloying company. Should they run out - it could easily be 1/4 to 1/3 of a year before they can get more.

Even for normall alloys - a 3 month lead time is common.

So, is this a case of increasing demand where the Mfr did not anticipate it months in advance? A case of reductions in Supplier Warehouse stocks? A case of reductions of Mfr Warehouse stocks? Or a combination of all of the above.

Seeing how others allude to the shortage of other rarely needed items (from a Suppliers view) but commonly needed items in the field (the contractors view) I am not sure that I as an outside observer would lay all of this on the Mfr. But, I've been wrong before...

I'd check to see if the Supplier or Mfr is willing to seach all the warehouses in the States (and even overseas) to see if the product is sitting on a rack somewhere. You can get anything shipped by truck fairly cheaply in no more than a week from anywhere in the US. I'll bet it is.

Perry

Perry_3

Shipping Time

When an overseas Mfr gets an order; unless the product (or situation warrants special handling and air freight) a one month time is probably about the shortest that you can expect delivery for isolated products.

The Mfr packs a standard 20 or 40 ft shipping container. Trucks or rails it to a port. It sits for a few days then gets loaded on a containerized cargo vessel. Croses the ocean(s) to the US. Gets unloaded and often sits for a few days (and the cargo ship may sit for a day or two prior to unloading first). Gets railed or trucked to a distribution wharehouse where they unpack and inventory the shipping container, and then ships individual items via truck to the suppliers who want it.

1 Month is not a bad time for this to happen.

If you can recieve an entire shipping container of items - shipped directly from the Mft to you - then you can probably cut 1 week from this process.

If you can handle a substaintial portion of a shipload - and can arrange things up front for a dedicated ship - and dedicated truck transports just waiting - and get the ports on both ends to give your ship priority - 2 weeks would be about as good as it gets.

My biggest question is why did they run out of stock here in the US, not the 1 month delay time in getting the product from overseas.

Perry

Mark Hunt

Fittings


These are not specialty items.

Mark H

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Mark Hunt

Just the manufacturer


Mark H

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Perry_3

Are you sure?

Or is that what the supply house is telling you.

Here is the question: Who is out of the product?

Obviously the local supply house is out.

Is the area distributor out (the people the supply house gets stuff from: In some cases this may be the US branch of a Mfr).

Is the Mfr out at that factory warehouse?

Is the Mfr out of parts that can be assembled in a couple of days?

Given that they are telling you it is "backordered 1 month" - and 1 month is the normal shipping time for cargo from Europe - I suspect that the Mfr has the items in stock at the factory. Thus; I doubt that it is a "Manufacturer" issue.

Please note that my fitting for my Low Water Cutoff took about a month to get here afer I installed my Vitodens: I was told they were sold out of the fitting at the US Distributor level - and that it would take a month to get here via normal shipping and processing). Is this perhaps the same company?

Now the question becomes why did the US distributor and Supplier run out:

Lets build a simple scenerio assuming a period demand of 50 units.

10 Supplier's in the US typically stock an average of 4 units each for the start of the period as that matches their past sales. Thus 40 units are in stock at Suppliers.

In this case the Mfr operates a US office and the Distribution warehouse and history has told them that if they stock 10 units above what the Supplers stock that they can adequately cover the extra orders needed by the various suppliers in the time period. So the Distributor stocks 10.

Total of 50 units stocked in US at the start of the period.

Now the Suppliers notice that if sales are higher than normal that the Distributor can ship them extra product in a week or less. Given the cost of inventory they decide that they will stock an average of 3 units each for the next period. Now 30 units are stocked at the Supplier level in the next period..

The Distributor maintians their stock of 10 units, and wonders if demand is decreasing because of the lower than expected replacement orders from the suppliers (perhaps the Distributor even considers reducing their stock due to the decreased demand..). Total stock is now 40 units for the next period - and demand is still 50 units (or even perhaps increasing).

Demand very slightly increases and the suppliers run out - and the Distributor does not have enough units in stock to quickly replensigh the suppliers - and runs out.

It takes a month to get new product shipped from the factory warehose throught the distributor to the supplier - and things are now backordered 1 month. The suppliers tell you that it is the Manufacturers fault; afterall - the Mfr (who is also the Distributor in this case) is the one who ran out...

In reality - the Suppliers created the problem by reducing their stock from before; and they did this without telling the Distributor so that the Distributor gets caught short of stock.

In actuality: the suppiers, distributor, and manufacturer idealy must work very closely together if they are going to change stocking levels even in the case of steady demand.

Of course, a similar situation can be created by increasing demand - and decreasing demand leaves lots of people with excess expensive stock.

Lost shipping containers can create there own havoc due to how closely ballanced many inventories are these days. Is the Mfr responsible because the shipping company lost (or delayed) the shipment?

Not being able to get the product you need is not a good situation - and hurts real people. However, just because the supply house says its the Mfr - does not necessarily make it so.

My guess is that if you are being told that the product is 1 month out - that the product either exist at the Mfr warehouse or can be fabricated in just a few days from existing parts. That is not by my definition a "factory/manufacturer" problem. Now it might be a Distributor level problem if the Distributor decreased stocks in the face of steady or slightly increasing demand from the suppliers (and if the Mfr is the US Distirbutor - then the Mfr Management shares the blame). As pointed out - it could have been a shipping problem.

However, I'll clearly not rule out without a lot more evidence the suppliers reducing there stock from prior levels - or not stocking up for steadily increasind demand actually creating the problem of the moment. I've seen to many cases in the power plant industry where Suppliers reducing inventory led the Distributors to reduce invenetory becasue they thought national demand was going down - and everyone running out of parts when demand was steady as a rock.

Perry

Mark Hunt

I am sure


I have been in contact with the manufacturer.

Mark H

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Steamhead (in transit)

We went thru this a year ago

with a certain boiler company. They had shut down for four weeks, the last half of December thru the first two weeks of January. For "inventory". If you needed any OEM parts during that time they didn't ship them for four weeks. Then they charged us exorbitant freight when they started shipping again!

Needless to say, we rarely install that boiler brand anymore, and only if that boiler model uses standard parts that we don't have to get from the factory.

I learned that it wasn't just us, that this was a problem all over the country. So I mention it to each and every one of their reps that I meet. Maybe some day they will get the message, until then they lose sales.

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Supply House Rick

Hey Perry

It's a manufacturing issue NOT a supply house issue. I would know...

Perry_3

How many Foreign Mfrs have US Distribution Warehouses

and, how well do they keep them stocked with "stuff."

In a case where the company has a standard shutdown - I'd expect the US warehouse to be stocked to handle that period. In addition they should be stocked with a small quantitiy of infrequently used parts.

So what Mfrs do a good job on this - which do not. I don't have a clue on heating boilers.

I did verify up front that normal repair parts are stocked in Milwaukee for my Vitodens. But what if Milwaukee runs out?

Perry

Singh_5

only 4 weeks!

6-8 weeks for pipe. I should have it by february.